TR Replies
Ok, given the forecast, weather history and terrain they still wound up where they got caught. When I say they didn't appreciate the risk, it's just like Jim said, they didn't fully understand the risk. So in my opinion they didn't assume more risk, they thought they were safer than they were. If this isn't so they report would read differently.
Again this isn't an indictment just an observation relevant to this conversation. I've put myself in simil...
Again this isn't an indictment just an observation relevant to this conversation. I've put myself in simil...
Awesome story and thanks for sharing. I was out taking risks during this last big cycle and could easily have had the same thing happen. I actually believe some of your choices saved your butts. I hope more folks write up reports like this one. The one thing I have learned there are no experts when it comes to avalanches. Tremper was right. At least I am not one. Thanks.
Thanks for pulling the link to the day's forecast, Susan. The January weak layer is only briefly mentioned at the top of the forecast discussion. However, near the end, I think this is the key sentence:
As has been pointed ou...
It will have been many days since there have been many people in the back country so conditions are a bit uncertain. Careful snow pack evaluation and caution should still be essential on Saturday.
As has been pointed ou...
FYI for those reading this thread:
Last Saturday's forecast for Snoqualmie Pass actually didn't call out a persistent weak layer as a concern (wind slabs and storm slabs were). Persistent weak layer was called out as a concern east of the crest.
http://www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/2014-02-22/cascade-west-snoqualmie-pass/
Last Saturday's forecast for Snoqualmie Pass actually didn't call out a persistent weak layer as a concern (wind slabs and storm slabs were). Persistent weak layer was called out as a concern east of the crest.
http://www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/2014-02-22/cascade-west-snoqualmie-pass/
4 feet wide, 6 inches deep, running 2 feet downhill. That might be the smallest avalanche I've ever heard of! ;)
Kudos to shawnskis for posting such a thoughtful report. It's not easy putting yourself out in public like this. I hope you'll take my comments constructively.
In your original post, you wrote:
"We realized NWAC’s forecast was very different from what we were observing. There was no sign of natural or human triggered slides. While not completely ruling out the persistent slab, we felt comfortable pressing on."
It seems to me that the key less...
In your original post, you wrote:
"We realized NWAC’s forecast was very different from what we were observing. There was no sign of natural or human triggered slides. While not completely ruling out the persistent slab, we felt comfortable pressing on."
It seems to me that the key less...
What a great race! While you were at the front, I was pulling up the rear. But beautiful weather, friendly racers--all in all a great time. Also, its cool to get a group of BC skiers together once in a while...most of the time we're trying to get away from each other. Good luck in UT!
Coming from an area of learning and discussion.
As I understand it the point of origin was 500 feet above where the skiers were. What are peoples thoughts from this as a Naturally Triggered Slide, as was reported via the NWAC site http://www.nwac.us/observations/pk/101/?
My thought is this is a human triggered slide, since the group was on the slide area and therefore loading the slope. What do others think about this?
As I understand it the point of origin was 500 feet above where the skiers were. What are peoples thoughts from this as a Naturally Triggered Slide, as was reported via the NWAC site http://www.nwac.us/observations/pk/101/?
My thought is this is a human triggered slide, since the group was on the slide area and therefore loading the slope. What do others think about this?
I wish you guys good luck finding your gear. I've lost two skis in the last five years and wasn't able to find them. It can be surprising how difficult it can be to travel on ski lines without any snow. Hopefully they are resting somewhere open and accessible, it's pretty easy for a ski to get swallowed by the underbrush.
Thanks for posting your story. I think we can all agree that the most important takeaway is that you and your partners are alive. All the rest is incedental.
I was wondering about one thing: it looks like you might have been lost on your initial descent? Looking at your map you went down only 400 ft while staying way too far to the right and then had to skin. If that's the case and you were lost, it might have saved your life. Crazy! (Of course...
I was wondering about one thing: it looks like you might have been lost on your initial descent? Looking at your map you went down only 400 ft while staying way too far to the right and then had to skin. If that's the case and you were lost, it might have saved your life. Crazy! (Of course...
Good post Trees. It sums up our assessment on Sunday, especially this piece:
"For reference, snowpack depths were doubled by the mid-February storm at some snotel sites. The Chair Peak party chose to accept the perceived unlikely event of a deep slab failure. NWAC presented it as possible, but not all that likely. That's the kind of risk framing that some people are going to be comfortable with."
As my partner and I traveled the north and south sides of t...
"For reference, snowpack depths were doubled by the mid-February storm at some snotel sites. The Chair Peak party chose to accept the perceived unlikely event of a deep slab failure. NWAC presented it as possible, but not all that likely. That's the kind of risk framing that some people are going to be comfortable with."
As my partner and I traveled the north and south sides of t...
Many good posts here, thanks to the OP for contributing and making this a more meaningful review that is based on your account.
Cookie, I'm sure you only intended the best by your post, but it really strikes me as more of a indictment of the state of avy education then this particular party. Your list is basically the "checklist" of criteria that AIARE and others have been pushing towards. What you're saying is that the common thread of fatal avalanches is...
Cookie, I'm sure you only intended the best by your post, but it really strikes me as more of a indictment of the state of avy education then this particular party. Your list is basically the "checklist" of criteria that AIARE and others have been pushing towards. What you're saying is that the common thread of fatal avalanches is...
Jim, I have found this thread respectful. We all know that this is not always the case. This thread for example contains a few choice posts:
http://www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboarding/trip_reports/index.php?topic=30876.25
http://www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboarding/trip_reports/index.php?topic=30876.25
Black Dog wrote
Maybe your right. The climber choosing to go climb a hard route is looked up to rather than reprimanded. Why does the skier have to choose the safe route or...
author=blackdog102395 link=topic=30926.msg129593#msg129593 date=1393468599]
I don't believe that the ones choosing more risk deserve our reprimand.
My thanks to the OP for his sharing his story. Accident review is a very valuable tool.
Maybe your right. The climber choosing to go climb a hard route is looked up to rather than reprimanded. Why does the skier have to choose the safe route or...
author=aaron_wright link=topic=30926.msg129602#msg129602 date=1393470724]
But what happened to them is exactly what the NWAC forecast warned about and they didn't appreciate that risk it seems. They claim the forecast was inaccurate.
Again, quoted from the report:
"I did my homework the night before to ensure I understood the conditions and risks. I reviewed NWAC, TAY, and consulted Topo maps despite the...
blackdog - I haven't noticed any vitriol on this thread; just healthy but as far as I can perceive respectful discussion, which at times can still be challenging in nature.
And I think Aaron is putting his finger on a key question any of us should ask about our own ventures - did this group understand the level of risk they were accepting with their route choice on this day? I don't know that we have all the evidence, but we have enough evidence to wonder. Again, I think thi...
And I think Aaron is putting his finger on a key question any of us should ask about our own ventures - did this group understand the level of risk they were accepting with their route choice on this day? I don't know that we have all the evidence, but we have enough evidence to wonder. Again, I think thi...
But what happened to them is exactly what the NWAC forecast warned about and they didn't appreciate that risk it seems. They claim the forecast was inaccurate.
author=blackdog102395 link=topic=30926.msg129600#msg129600 date=1393470472]
From the Conclusion section of the OPs report:
"In summary, I believe we followed our education and did many things right. We conducted our research and continued to communicate as we moved throug...
One lesson I am going to try to learn from this report is to make explicit what the Hazards Of The Day are, and no, these aren't always avalanche. I believe this is now a prominent part of the AIARE I curriculum. The involved party was looking for storm slab/wind slab, and was getting favorable signals on this front, but (in retrospect) the Hazard of the Day was deep slab.
In any case, I'm very glad that everyone ended up OK, and appreciate sharing the incident report. I w...
In any case, I'm very glad that everyone ended up OK, and appreciate sharing the incident report. I w...
author=aaron_wright link=topic=30926.msg129598#msg129598 date=1393470136]
I don't think the OP's party accepted more risk, they didn't appreciate the risk by their own admission. I'm not trying to judge them, it's what they put in their report.
From the Conclusion section of the OPs report:
"In summary, I believe we followed our education and did many things right. We conducted our research...
I don't think the OP's party accepted more risk, they didn't appreciate the risk by their own admission. I'm not trying to judge them, it's what they put in their report.
author=blackdog102395 link=topic=30926.msg129593#msg129593 date=1393468599]
I am continually confounded by the vitriol spewed by people towards those with more risk tolerance. I skied steeper terrain compared to another party that I shared the Tatoosh with on S...
I think it is worthy to make a point about the discussion, and not the avalanche itself.
You stated:
">>>>>>Lastly, in general, there doesn’t seem to be a community that allows for healthy conversation and debate for the purposes of education and safety. There is, what I hope, a small number of individuals that discourage reports such as this one with judgmental comments that don’t add to the conversation. I was encouraged to see a healthy discussion about...
You stated:
">>>>>>Lastly, in general, there doesn’t seem to be a community that allows for healthy conversation and debate for the purposes of education and safety. There is, what I hope, a small number of individuals that discourage reports such as this one with judgmental comments that don’t add to the conversation. I was encouraged to see a healthy discussion about...
I am continually confounded by the vitriol spewed by people towards those with more risk tolerance. I skied steeper terrain compared to another party that I shared the Tatoosh with on Sunday (http://www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboarding/trip_reports/index.php?topic=30932.0). Am I an idiot or just less risk adverse? We chose not to ski one particular north facing slope on that day, but what if another party decided to? Are they fools that demand a little of the what for? I know this ha...
No, the inversion seemed to be well above crest level, but it was only a very light crust, hardly noticed it.
Oh snap,
Is that da prez aka MC Kooksteady trollin strait off da choom wagon?
Is that da prez aka MC Kooksteady trollin strait off da choom wagon?
Did you guys get above the rain crust? It seem to be more prevalent further west...
Thanks for sharing this. It has already added to the community at TAY.
I have been troubled by the large amount of recent snowfall, in terms of how would I go about assessing the avalanche risk. Would I need to dig a 10 foot deep pit to check the January layer? I don't think I'll be doing that, so does that mean I shouldn't consider traveling in avalanche terrain? I know that everyone's process for risk assessment is different, but would you mind sharing a bi...
I have been troubled by the large amount of recent snowfall, in terms of how would I go about assessing the avalanche risk. Would I need to dig a 10 foot deep pit to check the January layer? I don't think I'll be doing that, so does that mean I shouldn't consider traveling in avalanche terrain? I know that everyone's process for risk assessment is different, but would you mind sharing a bi...
That first picture of yours is simply amazing! Captures what I'm always chasing after.
Thanks.
Thanks.
author=CookieMonster link=topic=30926.msg129566#msg129566 date=1393456291]
* "We're experienced, we're educated"
* "We met somewhere and discussed the avalanche report."
* "Our friends are guides" or "we saw guides".
* "Throughout our ascent, we continually discussed our options and shared our observations."
* "We saw no evidence of instability."
* "The snow see...
author=CookieMonster link=topic=30926.msg129566#msg129566 date=1393456291]
Just some observations of my own. Rather than tell you what you did wrong, or judge, or criticize, I'm going to share with you the elements of your trip that are common to trips where avalanche involvement resulted in a fatality. Except for the fact that no one was killed, your accident report is a carbon copy of several accident reports I was asked to review over the past three mo...
Again, it just comes down to the decision of personal acceptance of risk, which is hard to criticize somebody on in either direction
In many ways I agree and have pushed the risk zone myself, BUT others beyond the crew taking the risks get involved when things go south. Nearby parties are often the first-responders and S&R teams get activated when snow gets mean and usually feel a strong obligation to help in frequently hazardous...
Thanks for the report - food for thought.
IMO - this is the take-away:
*With conditions like that I think it really comes down to deciding how much risk we want to accept as individuals, and then rolling the dice. This is why a lot of people, despite wonderful snow conditions and seemingly quite stable snow, chose to ski rather mellow slopes, tree covered terrain, etc. Chances are most people could have gone on steeper slopes and been totally fine given the lack of self-tri...
IMO - this is the take-away:
*With conditions like that I think it really comes down to deciding how much risk we want to accept as individuals, and then rolling the dice. This is why a lot of people, despite wonderful snow conditions and seemingly quite stable snow, chose to ski rather mellow slopes, tree covered terrain, etc. Chances are most people could have gone on steeper slopes and been totally fine given the lack of self-tri...
prez em cee kooksteady... it's got flow.
you kids play nice now. If you work together, next time you can build a hill to land on instead of that flat ass meadow... you're already halfway to having your own chad's gap!
fun report, and follow up clowning.
you kids play nice now. If you work together, next time you can build a hill to land on instead of that flat ass meadow... you're already halfway to having your own chad's gap!
fun report, and follow up clowning.
Just some observations of my own. Rather than tell you what you did wrong, or judge, or criticize, I'm going to share with you the elements of your trip that are common to trips where avalanche involvement resulted in a fatality. Except for the fact that no one was killed, your accident report is a carbon copy of several accident reports I was asked to review over the past three months. All these reports follow the same general template, and they all contain the same information. To this po...
mc kook....i like that. gonna run with that one. i must have mad trolling skills cuz dem panties be all wadded up. and no need for me to gape this thread as the pics above already have that locked down. BOOM mofo's be getting sprayed on the skintrack.
srsly though....just having some fun causing a ruckus on here. been awhile since i've seen that in these parts and certain folks were banned.
next time let's share some doobs,...
srsly though....just having some fun causing a ruckus on here. been awhile since i've seen that in these parts and certain folks were banned.
next time let's share some doobs,...
Thanks for posting this. I've been finding that my usual rules of thumb for avalanche safety in the PNW need to get re-evaluated in winters like this. Your report further hi-lights that point. I've become very used to skiing and managing storm snow risk, but get little to no practice with deep instabilities
If you aren't already aware, Second Ascent is hosting a series of talks by NWAC forecasters and one happens to be tonight. https://www.facebook.com/events/586714731...
If you aren't already aware, Second Ascent is hosting a series of talks by NWAC forecasters and one happens to be tonight. https://www.facebook.com/events/586714731...
Winter camping in MRNP is underrated. Not only is the gate slow to open, but it frequently doesn't open at all ==> your own private ski Paradise.
author=mc link=topic=30860.msg129537#msg129537 date=1393443187]
i wasn't there on friday. but people talk.
i was there sunday and watched many clowns ripping on top of the skin track. sad. brought tears to my eyes. our group didn't cross the skin track once. but that's just how we do it. you wouldn't know it though cuz we leave the sloggin & bloggin to others.
Oh, my bad.
I get i...
thanks for the write up. stoked on the good fortune your group saw that day.
re the slot report from that day....as soon as i saw that report and heard about the chair slide i was going to post a reply in each to link the two. mostly as a holy shiz you (slot poster) just got lucky. realized that i've also been lucky so i held off on posting that link.
nice to hear how many folks backed off as these storms rolled through. here's to this week'...
re the slot report from that day....as soon as i saw that report and heard about the chair slide i was going to post a reply in each to link the two. mostly as a holy shiz you (slot poster) just got lucky. realized that i've also been lucky so i held off on posting that link.
nice to hear how many folks backed off as these storms rolled through. here's to this week'...
North slopes are still very reactive. West slopes were getting a lot of wind loading and very reactive as well. Upper east slopes were begining to get scoured be the east wind and seemed safer on the surface. We didn't get any results on south aspects although they were the most threating be far with the heat and sun.
Any aspects more active than others?
Thanks for posting!
Thanks for posting!
author=Jim Oker link=topic=30926.msg129539#msg129539 date=1393444212]
Thanks for sharing this writeup. I'm glad you guys got through it intact, and that you managed the snow slog out before being benighted.
Some of my thoughts mirror those of kamtron, Aaron, and RonL, fwiw.
Two winters ago, I was fortunate enough to glom on to a guided hut trip in BC that was guided by Ken Bibby, a very experienced guide who also teaches for the CA...
Thanks for sharing this writeup. I'm glad you guys got through it intact, and that you managed the snow slog out before being benighted.
Some of my thoughts mirror those of kamtron, Aaron, and RonL, fwiw.
Two winters ago, I was fortunate enough to glom on to a guided hut trip in BC that was guided by Ken Bibby, a very experienced guide who also teaches for the CAA. I suckered him into giving our group a version of a lecture he'd done for one of their workshops....
Some of my thoughts mirror those of kamtron, Aaron, and RonL, fwiw.
Two winters ago, I was fortunate enough to glom on to a guided hut trip in BC that was guided by Ken Bibby, a very experienced guide who also teaches for the CAA. I suckered him into giving our group a version of a lecture he'd done for one of their workshops....
Thanks for stepping up and providing this write-up, knowing that there would be people who would criticize, some productively, others not. It was a very helpful write-up, especially that map, which is awesome; probably the best one I've seen included with an incident report.
A few general comments, many of them repeating what others have said:
*First and foremost, I am really glad you guys made it out unharmed with nothing more than a scary experience and incred...
A few general comments, many of them repeating what others have said:
*First and foremost, I am really glad you guys made it out unharmed with nothing more than a scary experience and incred...
i wasn't there on friday. but people talk.
i was there sunday and watched many clowns ripping on top of the skin track. sad. brought tears to my eyes. our group didn't cross the skin track once. but that's just how we do it. you wouldn't know it though cuz we leave the sloggin & bloggin to others.
i was there sunday and watched many clowns ripping on top of the skin track. sad. brought tears to my eyes. our group didn't cross the skin track once. but that's just how we do it. you wouldn't know it though cuz we leave the sloggin & bloggin to others.
I looked at the archive forecasts for Friday and Saturday for both Snoqualimie Pass and SP near and west of the crest and near and east of the crest and found nothing inconsistent with the forecasts and what happened to the OP's party. The forecasts basically described what happened as a possibility/probability. I agree with whoever posted that blaming NWAC for this is a cop out.
It wound be curious to know where the "guide friend" was skiing on that day on the same asp...
It wound be curious to know where the "guide friend" was skiing on that day on the same asp...