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2/28/14 8:56am
hillybilly
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
A cornice(or something large) was likely dislodged off Chair peak transferring enough energy and force to react the PWL on the face below.

This is consistent with that days forecast, the slide path and similar behavior was observed on the Alpental ridge in that same time period and on a related aspect. This is observable to any one who takes a moment to look out the high-gate.

It is unlikely that the skiers remotely triggered this specific slide since if that were the case...
2/28/14 8:51am
flowing alpy
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
impressive
b
2/28/14 8:48am
OregonDead
Feb 23 - Hood
Beautiful video. That is my church too! We were at Ski Bowl on the 23rd where the times were also good.  I was surprised that the outback was open and, except for some of the usual holes on the run out, the coverage was very good. 
2/28/14 8:21am
Mike M
Feb 15 - 23, 2014, Fairy Meadow, Selkirk Mountains
Such an unbelievably awesome trip.  More pics and another video by Scott Heinz.

https://vimeo.com/87845715
2/28/14 8:16am
RonL
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Actually, in the context of preplanning for a trip I do prefer big hairy question mark. I agree with incorporating the weather leading up to the storm too but I think if anything it makes the question mark hairier. I guess I am focusing more on why nwac and people in their trip reports and other sources people look to in preplanning might not be able to give a clear warning about this incident but other sources such as the prestorm weather, the amount of new snow, the lack of a big change in tem...
2/28/14 7:42am
aaron_wright
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129760#msg129760 date=1393628701]
Sounds fair, I guess.

If I understand you, you're reluctant to use the word "persistent" because it's too soon to do so.

I can go along with that. Instead, how about calling it a "Big Hairy Question Mark." It seems to me that's what it is. We can each decide how to deal with it.

I think it would be a mistake, however, to...
2/28/14 7:36am
Lowell_Skoog
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
Perhaps someone will discover something truly unique about the snow down there but if they don't it may just point to ten feet of new has the potential to go big on many different types of crust that we often get in the nw and big steep open terrain should have a known warning on it.


After thinking about it a bit more, I see that your real point was that regardless o...
2/28/14 7:33am
Lowell_Skoog
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
I am making the distintion because I think the label of pwl and all the attention that accompanies it gets applied too late for the incident at hand and likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them. Whereas using the rule of thumb of being cautious after a big storm in the maritime climate can be applied before we get the kind of confirmation needed to call it...
2/28/14 7:19am
RonL
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Lowell, I am not going to take that bet, and I didn't that weekend. I am making the distintion because I think the label of pwl and all the attention that accompanies it gets applied too late for the incident at hand and likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them. Whereas using the rule of thumb of being cautious after a big storm in the maritime climate can be applied before we get the kind of confirmation needed to call it a pwl. I would rather the su...
2/28/14 7:05am
flowing alpy
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=DaneBurns link=topic=30926.msg129682#msg129682 date=1393533478]
Excellent TR.  Thank you for making the effort.  Glad it wasn't any worse than it was for everyone involved.

Couple of thoughts.

"Firstly, no one has a perfect handle on this stuff.

 Simply the amount of snow we have had recently and the extremely complicated terrain in the Alpental back country should make one extremely cautious. 
2/28/14 6:27am
BillK
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Makes sense, you guys both make good points....I guess time will tell if it is "persistent" and continues to be "weak".  But I think your "assumption" and associated plan is a good one.   
2/28/14 5:56am
Lowell_Skoog
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129697#msg129697 date=1393545144]
I wonder if persistent weak layer is the right term for the slide we are talking about. In my mind it was all one big storm system and rather than looking at it differently from a trickier continental snowpack mindset I just viewed it all as a big dump that although settling enough to make trail breaking easier as time went on was far from bonded or bridged. I think labeling this as pwl is lendi...
2/28/14 5:53am
BillK
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129697#msg129697 date=1393545144]
I wonder if persistent weak layer is the right term for the slide we are talking about. In my mind it was all one big storm system and rather than looking at it differently from a trickier continental snowpack mindset I just viewed it all as a big dump that although settling enough to make trail breaking easier as time went on was far from bonded or bridged. I think labeling this as pwl is lendi...
2/28/14 5:30am
ski2fly
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
I think all of the conversation is interesting regarding evaluation, overestimating abilities etc.   The big variable here is we are simply not used to this continental type of persistent deep/weak layer here in this maritime climate.   All of the OPs original assessment and evaluations would apply on 9 out of 10 years and cover the spectrum of risks, but the threat of a catastrophic all-cuts-loose event was clearly not deemed a threat.   And at this point, it is so far down you can dig a 5 or 6...
2/28/14 5:05am
avajane
Feb 26, 2014, Blewett Farming
I hope those are not all your tracks. If they are, I could direct you to some longer yet still safe slopes. :)
2/28/14 4:48am
Kneel Turner
Feb 22-23, 2014, Crystal Environs
Thanks Dan. Sorry Nick. Fixing it. Was a bit late when I finished, and no, I didn't cut it at work.
2/27/14 2:41pm
MW88888888
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Close to a decade ago I wrote a TR on TAY about skiing Snoqualmie MT solo one morning, and created a nice flurry of internet fodder for the choices made re: avalanche safety, hydration and general incompetency.  I'm actually very impressed by the growth and depth of the responses here, generally.

Nothing much changes, yet everything changes.  Thanks for talking about your experience. I, too, have Tripped the White Fandango and am lucky to be alive.

Life is lo...
2/27/14 1:59pm
danpeck
Feb 22-23, 2014, Crystal Environs
Nice Video Ed!  You beat me to it.  I guess you have more time when you are working than I do when I'm on vacation  :)

Somehow there were two of me and you forgot Nick.  But maybe Nick likes my name better.

Everyone needs to know that the final scene in the tree well happened while we were skinning.  Good Show!

Kyle… I saw you off in the distance and wanted to come shake your hand and say nice work on the American Alps Traverse! ...
2/27/14 1:26pm
the_flying_v
Feb 22-23, 2014, Crystal Environs
real nice.
2/27/14 12:52pm
Kyle Miller
Feb 22-23, 2014, Crystal Environs
Looks fun :)
2/27/14 12:33pm
JoshK
Feb 22, 2014, Vertfest Mt Bachelor Skimo Race
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30908.msg129685#msg129685 date=1393536331]
I haven't bought tights yet, but it's tempting. I think buying racing skis this season may have started me down a slippery slope (after skinning up it first, of course).   ;)

The negative reactions to skimo racing are amusing. I mean, does anybody think wearing lycra for bike racing is weird anymore? Nah, I didn't think so. The thing that amazes me is how far ah...
2/27/14 11:12am
watsonskipsmith
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
I would like to thank Shawnskis for his very brave, very important, most excellent and valuable post.

I do not have alot to add to "the meat" of this thread, but can offer some personal experience in regards to *Guide is pronounced "guide", not "god."
I was instructed by an experienced Canadian Mountain Ski guide to "follow my traverse and ski right of the tracks"
Well I did just that and triggered a slab with 3-4 foot crown which ran...
2/27/14 10:14am
Micah
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Thanks for your perspective, snowdog. As others have said, this thread is of great value IMO. I encourage the OP to respond; I hope he/she feels comfortable coming back.

author=Charlie Hagedorn link=topic=30926.msg129681#msg129681 date=1393532454]
We should be cautious working backward from accident narratives to criticism.


I wanted to add my voice to those empathizing with the OP. I heartily agree with many of the crit...
2/27/14 9:46am
Good2Go
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=aaron_wright link=topic=30926.msg129695#msg129695 date=1393544157]
I don't know if I've ever heard Ruedi described as "one of the best avalanche experts in the world".  I don't think anyone here has claimed to be an expert, most, including myself, realize we aren't so would exercise a bit more self discipline and restraint. A lot of the folks posting here likely have decades more experience than the OP. Even if the NWAC com...
2/27/14 8:28am
kerwinl
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=Good2Go link=topic=30926.msg129688#msg129688 date=1393539454]
Totally disagree. Cookie is miscasting the OP's basis for including their reasoning for being in that spot at that time in the TR, and even worse, describing it as "low skill".  And his tone is condescending.  If one of the best avy experts in world Ruedi Beglinger can't accurately predict the danger of a deeply buried instability, then certainly none of the folks on this...
2/27/14 8:13am
jj
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Cookie's comment that the party was "most certainly not following best practises at all," seems completely out of line.  In fact they did many things right: pre-trip research, equipped with appropriate gear, discussion of the conditions, safe travel in avalanche country, transitioning in a protected area.  In fact, the decision to transition on an intentionally chosen terrain island was likely what prevented injury.  I shudder to think that most of the terrain islands I choose wou...
2/27/14 8:06am
RonL
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Thanks for chiming in on your reasons for skiing the slot. I agree that exiting the treelike is where the first bit of concern would be for me on that route in these conditions but I would also have had reservations about the exit after skiing the slot.

I wonder if persistent weak layer is the right term for the slide we are talking about. In my mind it was all one big storm system and rather than looking at it differently from a trickier continental snowpack mindset I just viewed it...
2/27/14 8:02am
aaron_wright
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
I don't know if I've ever heard Ruedi described as "one of the best avalanche experts in the world".  I don't think anyone here has claimed to be an expert, most, including myself, realize we aren't so would exercise a bit more self discipline and restraint. A lot of the folks posting here likely have decades more experience than the OP. Even if the NWAC completely omitted and mention of PWLs and deep slab instability, they  certainly mentioned wind and st...
2/27/14 7:52am
snowdog
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Thought I would add to this since I was the one who posted the Slot trip report and I just saw this long series of comments.

First, i'm sure glad the three of you were not injuried and made it back safely.

Second, kudos for writing such an excellent report and to all others who have commented to make this an important lesson for all of us.

As to conditions in the Slot and why we decided to ski it, our thoughts, right or wrong, were that it would probably be...
2/27/14 7:35am
BillK
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Go ski it....me, I would still wait a bit, and it would depend on recent weather conditions, time of day, etc.

I wonder what Ruedi would say he learned from that horrible accident.....poor bastard probably eats, sleeps and breathes it everyday of his life. 
2/27/14 6:31am
kamtron
Feb 22, 2014, Vertfest Mt Bachelor Skimo Race
I have really been digging spandex on the last couple of warm volcano tours. It breathes so good but also keeps you warm when you need it. Those guys know what's up! Spandex is also superior for skintrack yoga breaks
2/27/14 6:25am
Good2Go
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=kerwinl link=topic=30926.msg129684#msg129684 date=1393535569">
Very good post, very constructive. The points made about experience level are very sobering, and reminded me of this paper put out in 2000 by Ian McCammon. This quote out of the summary is worth considering.

"Avalanche training did not appear to decrease the hazards
that groups exposed themselves to, and in the case of vic -
tims with basic training, hazard expo...
2/27/14 6:23am
BillK
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
I think the statement is right on for that weekend, and the "generous" statement fits given the uncertainty.  As is evident from my other posts, I think the route choice comes nowhere near that.
2/27/14 6:17am
Jim Oker
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Shanski posted in the spirit of generating a healthy conversation. Again, thanks for doing so! In that spirit, I want to ask about this phrase from one of CookieMonster's posts:
...appropriate terrain that included a generous margin of safety...

What do folks think about this as a generally stated goal for the sort of terrain you'd want to be on this past weekend? Right on? Too much caution for you personally with the inclusion of t...
2/27/14 6:00am
Lowell_Skoog
Feb 22, 2014, Vertfest Mt Bachelor Skimo Race
I haven't bought tights yet, but it's tempting. I think buying racing skis this season may have started me down a slippery slope (after skinning up it first, of course).   ;)

The negative reactions to skimo racing are amusing. I mean, does anybody think wearing lycra for bike racing is weird anymore? Nah, I didn't think so. The thing that amazes me is how far ahead the Europeans are when it comes to skiing fast and how long they've been out there.

For me...
2/27/14 5:44am
kerwinl
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=CookieMonster link=topic=30926.msg129637#msg129637 date=1393515252">
You are exactly, exactly, exactly, exactly right. The parties involved appeared or believed they were following best practices of avalanche education. When in fact they most certainly were not following best practises at all. The point of my earlier remarks is that best practises cannot make up for fundamental errors, such as poor choice of objective. Best practises are p...
2/27/14 5:25am
trees4me
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129649#msg129649 date=1393518800]

Klassen was absolutely right, and even NWAC wasn't entirely on top of this.

I have to say ALL OF US have been very lucky have this hazard demonstrated so vividly without anybody getting hurt. shawnskis should be thanked for bringing this discussion into the open by reporting his party's experience.


Absolutely!

Whether or...
2/27/14 5:12am
DaneBurns
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Excellent TR.  Thank you for making the effort.  Glad it wasn't any worse than it was for everyone involved.

Couple of thoughts.

"Firstly, I learned that very well respected guides, were skiing with their clients on similar terrain last Saturday."

Which should make one realise no one has a perfect handle on this stuff.

I have been skiing Crystal and Alpental almost every day for the last two weeks. Some of it BC but not much intentionall...
2/27/14 4:51am
Charlie Hagedorn
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
We should be cautious working backward from accident narratives to criticism. It's easy to see how this trip report could've been a jubilant one, with great skiing all day long. If the party had started an hour earlier, they'd have missed the slide almost entirely, perhaps not even seeing it until the return from Roosevelt. An hour later, and they'd have cool photos of the big slide and crown that appeared an hour before. Ten minutes earlier, and it'd have been worse.
2/27/14 4:37am
BillK
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
My first exposure to avalanche risk mitigation was in Colorado.  Such an objective in that kind of snowpack, in midwinter, with a considerable rating, would be considered foolhardy.  

The Cascade snowpack is different, but after the winter you've had, the avy report and the storm conditions of the past week I think the objective was ill-advised.  
2/27/14 4:20am
Jim Oker
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
author=Good2Go link=topic=30926.msg129675#msg129675 date=1393530510]
So as it turns out the forecast DID NOT mention any deep instability at Chair Peak, but all of you wanna-be avalanche experts are castigating the OP for ignoring that guidance?  As I recall the NWAC forecast was "considerable" that day (just like it is pretty much every day there is good pow to ski).  There were no other natural slides in the area, and sluffs weren't stepping d...
2/27/14 4:18am
T. Eastman
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
G2G, if you read the NWAC reports as the final word you would be correct, but there existed plenty of signs that DPC existed in the region (that there was old snow from early season sitting on top of soils and rock upon which boatloads of new snow was sitting...).  

NWAC should be part of a matrix and not depended upon as the sole base of one's decison making.  Regional trends do not count so much at the local level.

"You don't need a weatherman to see which...
2/27/14 4:15am
Bronco
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Nice report, glad everyone survived.

I'm not sure if this was mentioned, please forgive me if it was.

1. What is the avalanche education and BC Skiing experience level of the individuals in the group?  Maybe an opportunity to take some additional education?
2. Was there discussion of crossing the North aspect of Chair Peak with your guide friend or did the conversation only include the original and shorter plan?

Something new I learned from a shor...
2/27/14 3:56am
Good2Go
Montage of a few my favorite days in the Nooksak
author=savegondor link=topic=30940.msg129671#msg129671 date=1393529945]
if I had a sled...i'd really want to go up chiwawa river rd.  looks like multiple wide open slopes with good tree options up to 8k.  I'm drooling.  I need a sled.  I want to start a sled co-op.  I'm desperate for sled.  Will bring beer. 

PM me if you get a sled.  We have lots of spots to ski around Salmon la Sac that have pretty much zero avy ex...
2/27/14 3:55am
Good2Go
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
So as it turns out the forecast DID NOT mention any deep instability at Chair Peak, but all of you wanna-be avalanche experts are castigating the OP for ignoring that guidance?  As I recall the NWAC forecast was "considerable" that day (just like it is pretty much every day there is good pow to ski).  There were no other natural slides in the area, and sluffs weren't stepping down.  Seems like a case of bad luck to me, as opposed to an obvious result of decision mak...
2/27/14 3:52am
Good2Go
Montage of a few my favorite days in the Nooksak
Cool TR!  I've got a sled we go out every weekend, usually Salmon la Sac and the Teanaway.  PM me if you want to join in.
2/27/14 3:48am
savegondor
Montage of a few my favorite days in the Nooksak
author=savegondor link=topic=30940.msg129670#msg129670 date=1393529363]
I'd be in for some sled access skiing.  Question:  how far up Foss River toward Hinman can you get?  and/or toward Lennox just south of Skykomish? or Mt David?  Clarke? 


if I had a sled...i'd really want to go up chiwawa river rd.  looks like multiple wide open slopes with good tree options up to 8k.  I'm drooling.  I need a sled...
2/27/14 3:45am
savegondor
Montage of a few my favorite days in the Nooksak
I'd be in for some sled access skiing.  Question:  how far up Foss River toward Hinman can you get?  and/or toward Lennox just south of Skykomish? or Mt David?  Clarke? 
2/27/14 3:39am
Kneel Turner
Feb 22-23, 2014, Crystal Environs
It was a great weekend. With 14.5k' in two days, exploring new lines almost every run, and superb conditions, I was torn between wanting to document some of the fun without getting in the way of excellent skiing.
Edit:
https://vimeo.com/m/87838480
2/27/14 3:29am
T. Eastman
Saturday February 22, 2014, Chair Peak Avalanche
Gregg, thanks for you thoughts.  The winter landscape is so dynamic and at times inscrutable, but it keeps pulling us back...

... so off I go to ski.

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