TR Replies
We had a day and a half of clear weather at the end of the trip so we were able to fully comprehend the awesomeness of the alpine there, but didn’t venture too far with the avy conditions. We’ll be back for more.
The sauna is alive and well. Tough to beat a hot sauna and a cold beer after a day out touring.
The sauna is alive and well. Tough to beat a hot sauna and a cold beer after a day out touring.
I suspect all of this "atmospheric river" precip this week will take care of a lot of the PWL areas and might hit the reset button for most of the snowpack where I ski, Stevens to Crystal. Of course it might still be there, especially up higher, but it will certainly help alleviate my fears. PWL in Colorado don't get this kind of soaker now do they hence why they stick around for a long time during the season?
Up in Whistler and noting a recent forecaster blog. Should be a great inbounds powder day tomorrow. Today there was still some breakable crust to contend with off the groomed.
Some decisions are easy. Like the choice I made this morning to have a second cup of coffee after my toddler kept me awake for half the night. Also easy was the decision I made not to wear my florescent purple jacket I still have from the early 90′s and the decision I made not to click on the link to...
Some decisions are easy. Like the choice I made this morning to have a second cup of coffee after my toddler kept me awake for half the night. Also easy was the decision I made not to wear my florescent purple jacket I still have from the early 90′s and the decision I made not to click on the link to...
I too have felt the hot breath of the Chair dragon
Take it to heart
Live
Take it to heart
Live
author=rlsg
Thanks for the write-up and glad you are ok--you are not alone, I too have learned the hard way.
lucky they get another chance to keep learning, even the hard way.
b
Rebob on Earn Your Turns discusses deep persistent weak layer:
Having said that, although the local bulletin for Whistler/Blackcomb is L/L/L it clearly notes that there is a deep persistent weak layer that has not been reacting lately but could be reactive in some isolated areas. My take on that would be that I would want to avoid the areas most likely to see that layer activated--for the moment, big, unsupported steep slopes would be completely off my l...
Too bad you weren't able to romp up in the amazing alpine there, but nice that you got plenty of refills for that patch of tree skiing and did get up for a bit of viewtastic skiing as well. When I went, after about 1.5 days of really nice snow with perfect powder on the Granite Glacier etc., we sort of had the reverse issue - wind came up and cooked most of the snow except the trees (which we ran out of quickly w/o refills) and some sheltered bits here and there like the Shoestring. But we...
author=danpeck link=topic=30933.msg129784#msg129784 date=1393645114]
Echoing the jealousy. And thanks for the good ideas!
Me too! Nice work Branimal and crew!
I don't what a guide or guides say are definitive by any means or the NWAC --there info is only a small part of my decision making of which I am ultimately responsible for...there are NO EXPERTS only people that know more than me (possibly..). Just because everybody else (who is an "expert" ) is doing something does not tell me it is safe, no matter how long they have been doing it.
If you see no sign of activity, and there are all sorts of indicators of potential...
If you see no sign of activity, and there are all sorts of indicators of potential...
Thanks for the pics Lar, my cellphone doesn't do as well as your camera. Even though this trip didn't have any to die for turns in it, it was special to be out in classic mid winter scenery. Love going up that way for all the snow and moss on the trees. The depth in the woods was probably half that of the open areas. Just glad to be snug in my tent before the snow bombs really started to fall. On the way back out down the road the trap crust was really impressive - maybe an inch thick...
And then if it seriously warms up later in the week...possible collapsing of crust/step down, too?
author=jj link=topic=30926.msg129797#msg129797 date=1393663808]It seems we all agree that there's a persistent weak layer (or whatever you prefer to call it). When will you be comfortable to ski routes like Chair (or similar terrain) given that knowledge?
The answer is "who knows?". We'll just have to see how it plays out. I certainly won't be pushing it for a while, but there is always plenty of safe, fun skiing to...
Several people have inquired about what professionals do in dealing with a PWL. First off here is an article about the character of persistent deep slabs that was linked by the NWAC: http://www.avalanche.ca/uploads/decisionmaking/DM_AvalProbEssentials_DP_V1.0.pdf
Put me in the camp that would have (and did) choose avalanche safe terrain on that weekend. I chose forested terrain and picked a destination where much of the trail breaking would be in the woods where it is easier. I would...
Put me in the camp that would have (and did) choose avalanche safe terrain on that weekend. I chose forested terrain and picked a destination where much of the trail breaking would be in the woods where it is easier. I would...
i still think that 2/3 got lucky that 1/3 didn't get them killed.
b
b
Thanks OP. A great thread, with so many valuable comments on both sides.
Amazing that I could be so close at the exact same time (east side just above Source). Amazing that no one was killed as there were quite a few parties out that day. Now I am wondering if I saw your team, as while we did not head out until 830, we caught up to a bunch of parties.
I do remember seeing the aspect chart on NWAC highlighting the NE - N exposures as wind loaded and that actually made me thi...
Amazing that I could be so close at the exact same time (east side just above Source). Amazing that no one was killed as there were quite a few parties out that day. Now I am wondering if I saw your team, as while we did not head out until 830, we caught up to a bunch of parties.
I do remember seeing the aspect chart on NWAC highlighting the NE - N exposures as wind loaded and that actually made me thi...
author=freeskiguy link=topic=30926.msg129811#msg129811 date=1393698240]
Lowell,your last sentence is not accurate,care to re-think it?author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129807#msg129807 date=1393695636]If you don't care about getting the goods first, you can be a lot safer.
Sure, if we're not just playing word games.
I think I just restat...
The crust seems to be everywhere right now. Judging by the soreness in my lower back today, I'd liken skiing it to what I imagine riding a bucking bronco is like. It's a wonderful workout, basically you have to do squats and box jumps to launch yourself out of the snow and rotate mid air to change direction. All and all, yes, challenging would be an appropriate description. For bonus points, dodging trees in this crust adds a whole new dimension of excitement.
I'm glad...
I'm glad...
Joe, I get what you're saying. I think we can all agree the safe zone is on the couch. The safest choice at the time was to be on that bench. It worked.
author=Floater link=topic=30926.msg129813#msg129813 date=1393699688]
This was overall a bad ski year due to the rotten start. I rate it in the bottom ten of my 50 years of skiing for various reasons. I have gotten some decent powder days, but we do have our problems.
I really do think it has a lot to do with how you look at it. I'd agree that overall, it has not been a very good year. We were first teased in October with a...
Great thread. My thanks to the OP, Marcus for hosting the site and to all who have chimed in.
I have little to offer other than I saw the largest crown I have ever come across (I remember thinking that it must have been 12') on that aspect of Chair in April a few years ago. That stuck with me and I doubt that I would have put myself under that slope so soon following a significant snow event.
I have little to offer other than I saw the largest crown I have ever come across (I remember thinking that it must have been 12') on that aspect of Chair in April a few years ago. That stuck with me and I doubt that I would have put myself under that slope so soon following a significant snow event.
author=kneel turner link=topic=30926.msg12...
author=kneel turner link=topic=30926.msg129814#msg129814 date=1393700154]I thought about this as an answer, modulo the potential hangfire that may remain on the edges of what slid. But It seemed more in the spirit (and wording) of the question to answer WRT to similar slopes that haven't yet slid.
Right now is probably one of the safest times to ski the north face of chair peak. It slid.
I too have no criticism of the OP - only qu...
jj-
Right now is probably one of the safest times to ski the north face of chair peak. It slid.
I don't really have any criticism of the op. I can say the north face of chair was not on my list last weekend, but thats a choice I can only make for myself.
I'm puzzled by the choice of line, but let's not forget:
The group had considered their elevated area to transition for its protection from a slide from above, which it provided.
It seems the group did no...
Right now is probably one of the safest times to ski the north face of chair peak. It slid.
I don't really have any criticism of the op. I can say the north face of chair was not on my list last weekend, but thats a choice I can only make for myself.
I'm puzzled by the choice of line, but let's not forget:
The group had considered their elevated area to transition for its protection from a slide from above, which it provided.
It seems the group did no...
Shawnskis
This was the best report ever on TAY. It has been very interesting reading all these other takes on this and the variance of opinions. I do not dis you or anyone who participated in this conversation. I was skiing on that very day, rolling the dice. My partner wanted to stop and I wanted to go higher on a slope we were skiing. We chose his suggestion. Later I was happy when a tree bomb triggered a slide on the more open portion of the slope. It probably would not have...
This was the best report ever on TAY. It has been very interesting reading all these other takes on this and the variance of opinions. I do not dis you or anyone who participated in this conversation. I was skiing on that very day, rolling the dice. My partner wanted to stop and I wanted to go higher on a slope we were skiing. We chose his suggestion. Later I was happy when a tree bomb triggered a slide on the more open portion of the slope. It probably would not have...
Learn how to fully enjoy all sorts of terrain and all types of skisport. There are many ways to maintain adventure and/or physical challenge other than cruising steep terrain on what can be called high-risk days.
Skiers in this region routinely ski steep terrain as the snow is generally forgiving allowing perhaps, a skewed sense of what protocol is important when evaluating a day's objectives. Again this could be the result of rarely proving the negative and that getting ingrai...
Skiers in this region routinely ski steep terrain as the snow is generally forgiving allowing perhaps, a skewed sense of what protocol is important when evaluating a day's objectives. Again this could be the result of rarely proving the negative and that getting ingrai...
author=fh link=topic=30964.msg129798#msg129798 date=1393680820]
Did you reach the lake via traverse from your route of last week or did you go up Rocky Run creek?
I went up Rocky run by climbing up Rampart to 4800 & dropped back to ROcky run @ 3900 on a falling traverse. I'll post some pics later.
Also dug a 5' pit on 20deg e facing slope @ 4700' on the backside of a col, which was a prefect candida...
JJ- for routes like that for me, maybe not the remainder of the season. This is particularly true of known big avy paths (and I've seen the deposit zone beneath that one when touring past from Snow Lake). But even true of other long consistently steep opens slopes. Would I go do Jim Hill in upcoming powder? Not so sure for this, let alone the big funneled slide paths. We'll see. If we get a big spring slab cycle on all aspects, maybe after that, on a day that has had a good overnight f...
author=freeskiguy link=topic=30926.msg129805#msg129805 date=1393692934">
Lowell, So the idea is to wait and see what us avy test dummies find and report? Then the op has saved some lives and should be thanked for taking a big risk. Thanks.
Maybe you missed my previous post:
I...
author=jj link=topic=30926.msg129797#msg129797 date=1393663808]
When will you be comfortable to ski routes like Chair (or similar terrain) given that knowledge?
The only person that seems willing to commit to an answer is danpeck who says he will wait until spring -- I can respect that.
Like Lowell, I'm unable to go into the BC every week. I wish I could and perhaps that day will come. However, if I had t...
author=jj link=topic=30926.msg129797#msg129797 date=1393663808]
The only meaningful issue people seem to be debating is whether the group was in the particular terrain too soon. So when will it be reasonable to be on that terrain in your opinion? In my mind you don't get to armchair quarterback someone else's decision if you aren't willing to commit to your own decision.
I'm going to wait. I don't know...
thanks for the report...was hoping to get a confirmation of what seemed likely to be challenging conditions up there this weekend.
Good to see you were undeterred by the challenging conditions. Did you reach the lake via traverse from your route of last week or did you go up Rocky Run creek?
Frank
Frank
I've posed this question in my last two posts and no one will bite. So I'm going to bluntly call everyone out. It seems we all agree that there's a persistent weak layer (or whatever you prefer to call it). When will you be comfortable to ski routes like Chair (or similar terrain) given that knowledge?
The only person that seems willing to commit to an answer is danpeck who says he will wait until spring -- I can respect that.
Here's the way I look at...
The only person that seems willing to commit to an answer is danpeck who says he will wait until spring -- I can respect that.
Here's the way I look at...
author=powhound link=topic=30926.msg129782#msg129782 date=1393644397]
Now if someone digs down a week or two from now and that layer hasn't stabilized, then I would consider the layer persistent.
Good luck performing that test. ;)
This is a very good discussion. Thanks for starting it and thanks to all of those sharing their thoughts and emotions. For sure, all of these are factors in our decision making and it is helpful to get them out into the open.
"Experience" What do we mean by that? How relevant is it to our decision making? It seems like either we think we have more than we do, and so we are foolishly confident. Or, we become more conservative over time? A friend of mine in my field, wh...
"Experience" What do we mean by that? How relevant is it to our decision making? It seems like either we think we have more than we do, and so we are foolishly confident. Or, we become more conservative over time? A friend of mine in my field, wh...
author=z-bo link=topic=30926.msg129772#msg129772 date=1393637704]
I can't believe you're blaming nwac for your own mistake.
edit: to change stupidity into mistake, as this is tay and we all have to play nice.
Thanks z-bo.
That a lot of meat to chew in few words.
Thanks (sincere)
Thanks (sincere)
is a rattlesnake just a snake until it rattles, or is it a rattlesnake because it has the capacity to rattle?
Echoing the jealousy. And thanks for the good ideas!
At this point I don't think we can call what it slid on a PWL. The key to a PWL is that it is persistent, hence it doesn't go away, it persists.
I agree that I think what happened here was the entire new 2 week storm(s) slid on the light, dry, weak layer that was ontop of the rain crust.
All that happened here was a typical avalanche scenario, just magnified by the unusual amount of new snow: Crust, followed by a very cold storm= light, dry, uncohesive snow=weak...
I agree that I think what happened here was the entire new 2 week storm(s) slid on the light, dry, weak layer that was ontop of the rain crust.
All that happened here was a typical avalanche scenario, just magnified by the unusual amount of new snow: Crust, followed by a very cold storm= light, dry, uncohesive snow=weak...
I can't believe you're blaming nwac for your own mistake.
edit: to change stupidity into mistake, as this is tay and we all have to play nice.
edit: to change stupidity into mistake, as this is tay and we all have to play nice.
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
...likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them.......
IMHO, if you are going to go into the backcountry you should be paying attention to the conditions from just before the first snow flies to when you are going out. So even if a person is not aware that may be the norm in the Rockies that doesn't (and mother nature won't) give th...
A cornice(or something large) was likely dislodged off Chair peak transferring enough energy and force to react the PWL on the face below.
This is consistent with that days forecast, the slide path and similar behavior was observed on the Alpental ridge in that same time period and on a related aspect. This is observable to any one who takes a moment to look out the high-gate.
It is unlikely that the skiers remotely triggered this specific slide since if that were the case...
This is consistent with that days forecast, the slide path and similar behavior was observed on the Alpental ridge in that same time period and on a related aspect. This is observable to any one who takes a moment to look out the high-gate.
It is unlikely that the skiers remotely triggered this specific slide since if that were the case...
Beautiful video. That is my church too! We were at Ski Bowl on the 23rd where the times were also good. I was surprised that the outback was open and, except for some of the usual holes on the run out, the coverage was very good.
Such an unbelievably awesome trip. More pics and another video by Scott Heinz.
https://vimeo.com/87845715
https://vimeo.com/87845715
Actually, in the context of preplanning for a trip I do prefer big hairy question mark. I agree with incorporating the weather leading up to the storm too but I think if anything it makes the question mark hairier. I guess I am focusing more on why nwac and people in their trip reports and other sources people look to in preplanning might not be able to give a clear warning about this incident but other sources such as the prestorm weather, the amount of new snow, the lack of a big change in tem...
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129760#msg129760 date=1393628701]
Sounds fair, I guess.
If I understand you, you're reluctant to use the word "persistent" because it's too soon to do so.
I can go along with that. Instead, how about calling it a "Big Hairy Question Mark." It seems to me that's what it is. We can each decide how to deal with it.
I think it would be a mistake, however, to...
author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
Perhaps someone will discover something truly unique about the snow down there but if they don't it may just point to ten feet of new has the potential to go big on many different types of crust that we often get in the nw and big steep open terrain should have a known warning on it.
After thinking about it a bit more, I see that your real point was that regardless o...