TR Replies

Several people have inquired about what professionals do in dealing with a PWL. First off here is an article about the character of persistent deep slabs that was linked by the NWAC: http://www.avalanche.ca/uploads/decisionmaking/DM_AvalProbEssentials_DP_V1.0.pdf

Put me in the camp that would have (and did) choose avalanche safe terrain on that weekend. I chose forested terrain and picked a destination where much of the trail breaking would be in the woods where it is easier. I would...

3/1/14 9:30am

flowing alpy

i still think that 2/3 got lucky that 1/3 didn't get them killed.
b

3/1/14 8:53am

Griff

Thanks OP. A great thread, with so many valuable comments on both sides.

Amazing that I could be so close at the exact same time (east side just above Source). Amazing that no one was killed as there were quite a few parties out that day. Now I am wondering if I saw your team, as while we did not head out until 830, we caught up to a bunch of parties.

I do remember seeing the aspect chart on NWAC highlighting the NE - N exposures as wind loaded and that actually made me thi...

3/1/14 8:16am

Lowell_Skoog

author=freeskiguy link=topic=30926.msg129811#msg129811 date=1393698240]
Lowell,your last sentence is not accurate,care to re-think it?

author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129807#msg129807 date=1393695636]If you don't care about getting the goods first, you can be a lot safer.

Sure, if we're not just playing word games.

I think I just restat...

3/1/14 5:46am

JoshK

The crust seems to be everywhere right now. Judging by the soreness in my lower back today, I'd liken skiing it to what I imagine riding a bucking bronco is like. It's a wonderful workout, basically you have to do squats and box jumps to launch yourself out of the snow and rotate mid air to change direction. All and all, yes, challenging would be an appropriate description. For bonus points, dodging trees in this crust adds a whole new dimension of excitement.

I'm glad...

3/1/14 5:31am

Kneel Turner

Joe, I get what you're saying. I think we can all agree the safe zone is on the couch. The safest choice at the time was to be on that bench. It worked.

3/1/14 4:52am

JoshK

author=Floater link=topic=30926.msg129813#msg129813 date=1393699688]
This was overall a bad ski year due to the rotten start. I rate it in the bottom ten of my 50 years of skiing for various reasons. I have gotten some decent powder days, but we do have our problems.

I really do think it has a lot to do with how you look at it. I'd agree that overall, it has not been a very good year. We were first teased in October with a...

3/1/14 4:33am

Snow Bell

Great thread. My thanks to the OP, Marcus for hosting the site and to all who have chimed in.

I have little to offer other than I saw the largest crown I have ever come across (I remember thinking that it must have been 12') on that aspect of Chair in April a few years ago. That stuck with me and I doubt that I would have put myself under that slope so soon following a significant snow event.

author=kneel turner link=topic=30926.msg12...

3/1/14 4:22am

Jim Oker

author=kneel turner link=topic=30926.msg129814#msg129814 date=1393700154]
Right now is probably one of the safest times to ski the north face of chair peak. It slid.

I thought about this as an answer, modulo the potential hangfire that may remain on the edges of what slid. But It seemed more in the spirit (and wording) of the question to answer WRT to similar slopes that haven't yet slid.

I too have no criticism of the OP - only qu...

3/1/14 3:56am

Kneel Turner

jj-
Right now is probably one of the safest times to ski the north face of chair peak. It slid.
I don't really have any criticism of the op. I can say the north face of chair was not on my list last weekend, but thats a choice I can only make for myself.
I'm puzzled by the choice of line, but let's not forget:
The group had considered their elevated area to transition for its protection from a slide from above, which it provided.
It seems the group did no...

3/1/14 3:09am

Floater

Shawnskis

This was the best report ever on TAY. It has been very interesting reading all these other takes on this and the variance of opinions. I do not dis you or anyone who participated in this conversation. I was skiing on that very day, rolling the dice. My partner wanted to stop and I wanted to go higher on a slope we were skiing. We chose his suggestion. Later I was happy when a tree bomb triggered a slide on the more open portion of the slope. It probably would not have...

3/1/14 2:55am

T. Eastman

Learn how to fully enjoy all sorts of terrain and all types of skisport. There are many ways to maintain adventure and/or physical challenge other than cruising steep terrain on what can be called high-risk days.

Skiers in this region routinely ski steep terrain as the snow is generally forgiving allowing perhaps, a skewed sense of what protocol is important when evaluating a day's objectives. Again this could be the result of rarely proving the negative and that getting ingrai...

3/1/14 2:48am

Jake the Brit

author=fh link=topic=30964.msg129798#msg129798 date=1393680820]
Did you reach the lake via traverse from your route of last week or did you go up Rocky Run creek?

I went up Rocky run by climbing up Rampart to 4800 & dropped back to ROcky run @ 3900 on a falling traverse. I'll post some pics later.

Also dug a 5' pit on 20deg e facing slope @ 4700' on the backside of a col, which was a prefect candida...

3/1/14 2:34am

Jim Oker

JJ- for routes like that for me, maybe not the remainder of the season. This is particularly true of known big avy paths (and I've seen the deposit zone beneath that one when touring past from Snow Lake). But even true of other long consistently steep opens slopes. Would I go do Jim Hill in upcoming powder? Not so sure for this, let alone the big funneled slide paths. We'll see. If we get a big spring slab cycle on all aspects, maybe after that, on a day that has had a good overnight f...

3/1/14 2:05am

Lowell_Skoog

author=freeskiguy link=topic=30926.msg129805#msg129805 date=1393692934">
Lowell, So the idea is to wait and see what us avy test dummies find and report? Then the op has saved some lives and should be thanked for taking a big risk. Thanks.

Maybe you missed my previous post:

I...

3/1/14 1:59am

danpeck

author=jj link=topic=30926.msg129797#msg129797 date=1393663808]
When will you be comfortable to ski routes like Chair (or similar terrain) given that knowledge?

The only person that seems willing to commit to an answer is danpeck who says he will wait until spring -- I can respect that.

Like Lowell, I'm unable to go into the BC every week. I wish I could and perhaps that day will come. However, if I had t...

3/1/14 1:40am

Lowell_Skoog

author=jj link=topic=30926.msg129797#msg129797 date=1393663808]
The only meaningful issue people seem to be debating is whether the group was in the particular terrain too soon. So when will it be reasonable to be on that terrain in your opinion? In my mind you don't get to armchair quarterback someone else's decision if you aren't willing to commit to your own decision.

I'm going to wait. I don't know...

3/1/14 12:36am

Pete A

thanks for the report...was hoping to get a confirmation of what seemed likely to be challenging conditions up there this weekend.

2/28/14 11:50pm

Good to see you were undeterred by the challenging conditions. Did you reach the lake via traverse from your route of last week or did you go up Rocky Run creek?
Frank

2/28/14 10:44pm

I've posed this question in my last two posts and no one will bite. So I'm going to bluntly call everyone out. It seems we all agree that there's a persistent weak layer (or whatever you prefer to call it). When will you be comfortable to ski routes like Chair (or similar terrain) given that knowledge?

The only person that seems willing to commit to an answer is danpeck who says he will wait until spring -- I can respect that.

Here's the way I look at...

2/28/14 9:33pm

Lowell_Skoog

author=powhound link=topic=30926.msg129782#msg129782 date=1393644397]
Now if someone digs down a week or two from now and that layer hasn't stabilized, then I would consider the layer persistent.

Good luck performing that test. ;)

2/28/14 4:50pm

danpeck

This is a very good discussion. Thanks for starting it and thanks to all of those sharing their thoughts and emotions. For sure, all of these are factors in our decision making and it is helpful to get them out into the open.

"Experience" What do we mean by that? How relevant is it to our decision making? It seems like either we think we have more than we do, and so we are foolishly confident. Or, we become more conservative over time? A friend of mine in my field, wh...

2/28/14 2:22pm

Marcus

author=z-bo link=topic=30926.msg129772#msg129772 date=1393637704]
I can't believe you're blaming nwac for your own mistake.

edit: to change stupidity into mistake, as this is tay and we all have to play nice.

Thanks z-bo.

2/28/14 2:10pm

Robie

That a lot of meat to chew in few words.
Thanks (sincere)

2/28/14 1:50pm

Charlie Hagedorn

Feb 15 - 23, 2014, Fairy Meadow, Selkirk Mountains

is a rattlesnake just a snake until it rattles, or is it a rattlesnake because it has the capacity to rattle?

2/28/14 1:44pm

danpeck

Echoing the jealousy. And thanks for the good ideas!

2/28/14 12:39pm

powhound

At this point I don't think we can call what it slid on a PWL. The key to a PWL is that it is persistent, hence it doesn't go away, it persists.

I agree that I think what happened here was the entire new 2 week storm(s) slid on the light, dry, weak layer that was ontop of the rain crust.

All that happened here was a typical avalanche scenario, just magnified by the unusual amount of new snow: Crust, followed by a very cold storm= light, dry, uncohesive snow=weak...

2/28/14 11:38am

z-bo

Feb 25, 2014, Snoqualmie Mt. instability

I can't believe you're blaming nwac for your own mistake.

edit: to change stupidity into mistake, as this is tay and we all have to play nice.

2/28/14 11:26am

flowing alpy

wise enough reason for me.
b

2/28/14 9:35am

ski2fly

author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
...likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them.......

IMHO, if you are going to go into the backcountry you should be paying attention to the conditions from just before the first snow flies to when you are going out. So even if a person is not aware that may be the norm in the Rockies that doesn't (and mother nature won't) give th...

2/28/14 8:56am

hillybilly

A cornice(or something large) was likely dislodged off Chair peak transferring enough energy and force to react the PWL on the face below.

This is consistent with that days forecast, the slide path and similar behavior was observed on the Alpental ridge in that same time period and on a related aspect. This is observable to any one who takes a moment to look out the high-gate.

It is unlikely that the skiers remotely triggered this specific slide since if that were the case...

2/28/14 8:51am

flowing alpy

Feb 15 - 23, 2014, Fairy Meadow, Selkirk Mountains

impressive
b

2/28/14 8:48am

OregonDead

Feb 23 - Hood

Beautiful video. That is my church too! We were at Ski Bowl on the 23rd where the times were also good. I was surprised that the outback was open and, except for some of the usual holes on the run out, the coverage was very good.

2/28/14 8:21am

Mike M

Such an unbelievably awesome trip. More pics and another video by Scott Heinz.

https://vimeo.com/87845715

2/28/14 8:16am

RonL

Actually, in the context of preplanning for a trip I do prefer big hairy question mark. I agree with incorporating the weather leading up to the storm too but I think if anything it makes the question mark hairier. I guess I am focusing more on why nwac and people in their trip reports and other sources people look to in preplanning might not be able to give a clear warning about this incident but other sources such as the prestorm weather, the amount of new snow, the lack of a big change in tem...

2/28/14 7:42am

aaron_wright

author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=30926.msg129760#msg129760 date=1393628701]
Sounds fair, I guess.

If I understand you, you're reluctant to use the word "persistent" because it's too soon to do so.

I can go along with that. Instead, how about calling it a "Big Hairy Question Mark." It seems to me that's what it is. We can each decide how to deal with it.

I think it would be a mistake, however, to...

2/28/14 7:36am

Lowell_Skoog

author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
Perhaps someone will discover something truly unique about the snow down there but if they don't it may just point to ten feet of new has the potential to go big on many different types of crust that we often get in the nw and big steep open terrain should have a known warning on it.

After thinking about it a bit more, I see that your real point was that regardless o...

2/28/14 7:33am

Lowell_Skoog

author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129758#msg129758 date=1393626440]
I am making the distintion because I think the label of pwl and all the attention that accompanies it gets applied too late for the incident at hand and likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them. Whereas using the rule of thumb of being cautious after a big storm in the maritime climate can be applied before we get the kind of confirmation needed to call it...

2/28/14 7:19am

RonL

Lowell, I am not going to take that bet, and I didn't that weekend. I am making the distintion because I think the label of pwl and all the attention that accompanies it gets applied too late for the incident at hand and likening it to continental regions is a bit vague to people not accustom to them. Whereas using the rule of thumb of being cautious after a big storm in the maritime climate can be applied before we get the kind of confirmation needed to call it a pwl. I would rather the su...

2/28/14 7:05am

flowing alpy

author=DaneBurns link=topic=30926.msg129682#msg129682 date=1393533478]
Excellent TR. Thank you for making the effort. Glad it wasn't any worse than it was for everyone involved.

Couple of thoughts.

"Firstly, no one has a perfect handle on this stuff.

Simply the amount of snow we have had recently and the extremely complicated terrain in the Alpental back country should make one extremely cautious.

2/28/14 6:27am

BillK

Makes sense, you guys both make good points....I guess time will tell if it is "persistent" and continues to be "weak". But I think your "assumption" and associated plan is a good one.

2/28/14 5:56am

Lowell_Skoog

author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129697#msg129697 date=1393545144]
I wonder if persistent weak layer is the right term for the slide we are talking about. In my mind it was all one big storm system and rather than looking at it differently from a trickier continental snowpack mindset I just viewed it all as a big dump that although settling enough to make trail breaking easier as time went on was far from bonded or bridged. I think labeling this as pwl is lendi...

2/28/14 5:53am

BillK

author=RonL link=topic=30926.msg129697#msg129697 date=1393545144]
I wonder if persistent weak layer is the right term for the slide we are talking about. In my mind it was all one big storm system and rather than looking at it differently from a trickier continental snowpack mindset I just viewed it all as a big dump that although settling enough to make trail breaking easier as time went on was far from bonded or bridged. I think labeling this as pwl is lendi...

2/28/14 5:30am

ski2fly

Feb 26, 2014, Blewett Farming

I think all of the conversation is interesting regarding evaluation, overestimating abilities etc. The big variable here is we are simply not used to this continental type of persistent deep/weak layer here in this maritime climate. All of the OPs original assessment and evaluations would apply on 9 out of 10 years and cover the spectrum of risks, but the threat of a catastrophic all-cuts-loose event was clearly not deemed a threat. And at this point, it is so far down you can dig a 5 or 6...

2/28/14 5:05am

avajane

I hope those are not all your tracks. If they are, I could direct you to some longer yet still safe slopes. :)

2/28/14 4:48am

Kneel Turner

Thanks Dan. Sorry Nick. Fixing it. Was a bit late when I finished, and no, I didn't cut it at work.

2/27/14 2:41pm

MW88888888

Close to a decade ago I wrote a TR on TAY about skiing Snoqualmie MT solo one morning, and created a nice flurry of internet fodder for the choices made re: avalanche safety, hydration and general incompetency. I'm actually very impressed by the growth and depth of the responses here, generally.

Nothing much changes, yet everything changes. Thanks for talking about your experience. I, too, have Tripped the White Fandango and am lucky to be alive.

Life is lo...

2/27/14 1:59pm

danpeck

Nice Video Ed! You beat me to it. I guess you have more time when you are working than I do when I'm on vacation :)

Somehow there were two of me and you forgot Nick. But maybe Nick likes my name better.

Everyone needs to know that the final scene in the tree well happened while we were skinning. Good Show!

Kyle… I saw you off in the distance and wanted to come shake your hand and say nice work on the American Alps Traverse! ...

2/27/14 1:26pm

the_flying_v

real nice.

2/27/14 12:52pm

Kyle Miller