WMC Update 2012

That is incorrect, and you aren't even using the right numbers.  It is 113k skiers and 98k snowmobilers.  These are stated as an estimation of users.  This isn't visits or anything else.  Please review your sources of information.

www.winterwildlands.org/resources/reports/WWA_WA.pdf

Again, this has been discussed previously.  Please use correct statistics and avoid random guesses.
WMC, the committee needs to be using correct figures and also take responsibility for the sources of those figures if it is going to use them for its purpose.  Using random numbers (and incorrect in this case) and passing the responsibility to other people is not responsible.

I'm sorry, you are correct. I didn't get those numbers from WWA when I originally posted, I got them from the WSWRR(2008) and remembered incorrectly. There are an estimated 113k skiers and 98k snowmobilers, but don't forget the snowshoers(38k) that make up the 151k non-motorized users. I find it curious that there are an estimated 98k snowmobilers but only 35k registered sleds, doesn't a sled have to be registered to operate on public land?

I'm sorry, you are correct. I didn't get those numbers from WWA when I originally posted, I got them from the WSWRR(2008) and remembered incorrectly. There are an estimated 113k skiers and 98k snowmobilers, but don't forget the snowshoers(38k) that make up the 151k non-motorized users. I find it curious that there are an estimated 98k snowmobilers but only 35k registered sleds, doesn't a sled have to be registered to operate on public land?

Who knows where they pull the info from, could be out of state visitors as well. I once heard a statistics student say that "figures lie and liars figure"....most can usually be manipulated to make a point.

I think we would all be complaining of our stash being taken if there were 200k+ visitors to that area.

I think it would be interesting to get actual numbers for the areas we are talking about. Using statewide numbers does no good for the discussion at hand, unless the greater goal is to close all or more areas.

Some background on the usage figures, since they keep coming up (fair warning - this is clearly a dry post with low entertainment value).

There are really 3 data sources being kicked around:

1)  USFS based National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) figures,
2.) WA State snowmobile registration figures, and
3.) data from The Assessment of Outdoor Recreation, 2002 - the ones from the WA Parks Winter Recreation Strategic Plan.

USFS Data - The Forest Service/NVUM figures provide the most local detail on the Wenatchee NF. But they're also the most suspect. They ought to be used with a big grain of salt for a couple reasons:

• The most recent NVUM survey for the Wenatchee NF covered the 2004-2005 winter. Remember that season? Barely any snow. Visitation was much lower than average. That creates a number of biases and makes the data more erratic, especially with smaller usage groups and sample sizes. Show up on the right day/place and you can probably double participation estimates for a small group, or visa-versa.
• On that point, the survey had just 52 responses for both groups across the entire Wenatchee NF. That sounds like just a few days of of sampling for each activity/location selected as a survey point. Its not a bad effort per se, but there should be some questions about how representative the results are and how far they can be pushed.

Here's the link to the NVUM home page, with access to the report. Interesting stuff at a national level. Locally, its tougher to use: www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/nvum/

Snowmobile Registration Data - this is probably the most reliable figure in the whole discussion. Bit its really about ownership and not participation. It probably captures 'core users' pretty well but not all participants. Overall, it probably does track snowmobile ownership pretty reliably, and that's a good barometer of the growth of the sport at a state-wide level, even if it doesn't capture total particpation at all levels. At least you have a firm grip on snowmobile ownership. Leave it up to the state tax collectors to have the best data  :.

WA Parks/WA Recreation Survey Data - Participation figures being used in the 2008 Winter Recreation Strategic Plan, developed by WA State Parks and cited here a lot, are actually from a 2002 state wide inter-agency Recreation Survey. A link to that underlying report is below. The results from that report are ultimately based on about 600 participants, balanced for age and for geography (east or west of the cascades mainly...), who agreed to track their recreational activity in a diary from 1999-2000. The results, while not bomb proof, especially for smaller activities, are pretty decent at a state wide level.

www.rco.wa.gov/doc_pages/other_pubs.shtml#rec_trends

Here again are the figures from that report that we might care about. There are some biases in this data to be sure, it might over or under report some groups based on the sampling plan. Plus, the data is aging and we know these sports are growing (part of why we're starting to see friction). But the report gives a feel for participation at an overall level and it was pretty broad-based, which helps to minimize question bias from any of the sponsors (this thing is used by everyone - State Parks, Fisheries, FERC re-licensing of hydro dams....its the omnibus recreation report for WA...):

Skiing (at a resort)                          262,321
Sledding/Tubing/Snowplay               291,685
XC Skiing                                       112,942
Snowboarding (at a resort)              97,029
Snowmobiling                                 98,072
Snowboarding (not at an area...)      44,297
Snowshoeing                                   37,778

BTW, snowboarding at 'undeveloped' sites seemed like it was relevant. Of course, it could be split boarders, folks riding into the BC on a sled to snowboard, or even people building kickers near Chinook Pass (probably without a permit...). So maybe the numbers are split between the 'moto' and 'non-moto' groups, but who knows. The survey may not have been designed with those kinds of distinctions in mind.

JimH,

thanks for the details and information!!

It is clear that there are significant numbers of current users both using and not using motorized travel in the area during winter. I don't think precise numbers are very important.

I believe that designation of additional winter non-motorized zones outside of designated wilderness will occur. Management of summer motorized use has certainly changed in the past decade (as pointed out above); I predict that winter motorized use will follow a similar path. Excluding motorized use in certain times and places is a reasonable (and legal) management policy. The specifics of future management strategy may well be taken from proposals of non-motorized users advocating as WMC is in this thread.

I am urging motorized users to come to the table in a serious way. Let's talk about what you don't want to lose. I understand you would like maximum access (who wouldn't?). I would like to see the USFS implement coherent policies that offer good treatment of all groups. I have no hope that this will happen. Working with other user groups, I think, is your best chance for the best outcome. You may not agree. I don't think blanket opposition to some form of management will be productive in the long run.

As I stated (far) above, I think the establishment of designated winter motorized zones is the best solution. Let's start by giving sledders a dominant share of roaded areas and the unroaded areas that offer the most to sledders relative to skiers and all other management considerations. I have no idea which areas these are (they may be the very areas of the WMC proposal!), b/c  I don't know anything about snowmobiling. I am not willing to stop advocating for increased non-motorized management. I am willing to work hard to make sure that management does not detract needlessly from others' responsible use of the shared resource.  

I would also like to take this opportunity to express my dismay at the divisiveness of the discourse regarding public land management. It seems to me that all of the user groups (skiers, climbers, sledders, ...) have taken up selfish rhetoric and put their own use above their responsibility to care for public lands. I will treasure our public land despite its mismanagement. I would urge everybody to try to think of the 'bigger picture' when interacting with other users.

It is clear that there are significant numbers of current users both using and not using motorized travel in the area during winter. I don't think precise numbers are very important.

I believe that designation of additional winter non-motorized zones outside of designated wilderness will occur. Management of summer motorized use has certainly changed in the past decade (as pointed out above); I predict that winter motorized use will follow a similar path. Excluding motorized use in certain times and places is a reasonable (and legal) management policy. The specifics of future management strategy may well be taken from proposals of non-motorized users advocating as WMC is in this thread.

I am urging motorized users to come to the table in a serious way. Let's talk about what you don't want to lose. I understand you would like maximum access (who wouldn't?). I would like to see the USFS implement coherent policies that offer good treatment of all groups. I have no hope that this will happen. Working with other user groups, I think, is your best chance for the best outcome. You may not agree. I don't think blanket opposition to some form of management will be productive in the long run.

As I stated (far) above, I think the establishment of designated winter motorized zones is the best solution. Let's start by giving sledders a dominant share of roaded areas and the unroaded areas that offer the most to sledders relative to skiers and all other management considerations. I have no idea which areas these are (they may be the very areas of the WMC proposal!), b/c  I don't know anything about snowmobiling. I am not willing to stop advocating for increased non-motorized management. I am willing to work hard to make sure that management does not detract needlessly from others' responsible use of the shared resource.  

I would also like to take this opportunity to express my dismay at the divisiveness of the discourse regarding public land management. It seems to me that all of the user groups (skiers, climbers, sledders, ...) have taken up selfish rhetoric and put their own use above their responsibility to care for public lands. I will treasure our public land despite its mismanagement. I would urge everybody to try to think of the 'bigger picture' when interacting with other users.

Thanks again Micah!

WMC has started a thread on Snowest Forum entitled "Asking for riders' input about winter non-motorized areas"

www.snowestonline.com/forum/showthread.p...posted=1#post2301878

Registration is required on Snowest, and EVERYONE posting there must be civil and respect others! No attacks on snowmobile riders! Snowmobile riding is a legitimate use of the Forest as is skiing or snowshoeing, everyone please keep that in mind.

One recent comment there by WMC "If there is common ground to be found between our user groups, we hope to identify it, that is why we are here."

Other meetings are in the works or scheduled between WMC and stakeholders such as elected officials and snowmobile folks.

This thread is on NW Hikers-

www.nwhikers.net/forums/viewtopic.php?p=614229#614229

This article allows approved comments, there are some from opposing views-

www.justgetout.net/Wenatchee/18996

Thanks everyone for the meaningful discussion!