If faith does it for you, go for it.
This is the summary forecast which was updated October 18th.
iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.html
Note that the El Nino effect really dies off after mid-winter. Doubtless some of this is the seasonal effect of ENSO events and some may have to do with the inaccuracies that arise in longer forecast periods.
This must be the primary data point the CPC is basing their extended monthly outlooks on as it mirrors the forecast. They still show persistently dry conditions beginning again in December and lasting through the spring (the second, lower map is obviously the precipitation):
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictio.../seasonal.php?lead=1
The complete discussion is here:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...visory/ensodisc.html
Click on any of the figure links to see the data from which the forecast is derived. The El Nino temperature indicators have weakened but in the past couple of months have risen again to +.3C. As the discussion indicates some models still expect the El Nino indicators to strengthen somewhat.
Personally, I still expect a strong ridge to form at some point because this late summer/early fall ridge was stronger (more persistent) than any we have ever seen. Since I don't go wholly on faith I have to think that something was causing that ridge to persist and it would be unusual for the ridge not to reemerge unless the causal factors for the ridge are all gone. The NWS said that late in that period the ridge was being enhanced by a typhoon in the Western Pacific, perhaps that typhoon has also caused a shift that has sent our weather in the opposite direction. Clearly there is now a tendency for zonal flow into our region. We will see. But I doubt faith will have anything to do about it.
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