It is the monthly consistency of the forecasts coupled with our record dry 3 month period that catch my eye. I also don't like it that current forecasts show a split flow and a persistent cut off low in and near southern California. That is not a good pattern for Washington. Hopefully that will not be a repeating pattern.
I think the question is whether the ridge/ now Rexblock will break down for a long enough period of time to allow the Westerlies to break through into our region and build a snowpack.
On the plus side, Howard Sheckter (who is friends with many climatologists) had this to say today:
PS: The update on El Nino today from NCEP is indicating some back peddling. There are doubts now whether the atmosphere will ever couple up, El Nino Style to the slightly warm waters over the central pacific. The forecast is for very weak to neutral conditions this Fall/Winter. This is “one” reason why this winter will be so hard to predict. The issue is that there are few strong signels to go with.
Cliff Mass also discusses this on his blog:
cliffmass.blogspot.com/
He speaks of a lag effect even if the El Nino doesn't develop.
The unpredictability is something we might be able to hang our hats on.
Sheckter's The man for Mammoth Lakes snow forecast. I would trust his reports over NOAA when I lived in CA and rode Mammoth. A lot of forecasts are calling for a weak el nino, or a neutral pattern which is supposed to be good for the NW. So STAY POSITIVE!
We will have a good snow year...We will have a good snow year...
