Remember 2005?

What is obvious is that the the monthly CPC outlooks are consistently dry until about May and are consistently in higher than the lowest level of confidence.

I wouldn't read too much into these plots.  Even if we assume they have perfect skill, I don't think we can infer much about skiing quality from them.    When you see the darker tan color, it means that's there's a 50% chance of the rainfall (in the three month period of interest) being in the bottom 33% of all years, a 30% chance of us getting the median amount, and a 20% chance of us exceeding the 66th percentile. 

So the question is, how much rain do we get in a 33rd percentile year (33rd percentile means if you sorted 30 years precip data, this is the value you find in the 10th spot from the bottom).  In a 33 percentile year, we still get 24.64 inches of rain, December-February.  In comparison, in a 66th percentile year, we get 29.25 inches of rain (Found here )  So it's just a 5 inch difference.  I interpret this as saying we get remarkably consistent precip here.   (In 2005 a quick look seems to show us getting around 20 inches of rain December-Feb, with much of it coming January in the form of two Pineapple expresses.)

The real question is, will the precip come in cold enough to give us some low-elevation pow days?  I'm sure there'll be a few.

It is the monthly consistency of the forecasts coupled with our record dry 3 month period that catch my eye. I also don't like it that current forecasts show a split flow and a persistent cut off low in and near southern California. That is not a good pattern for Washington. Hopefully that will not be a repeating pattern.

I think the question is whether the ridge/ now Rexblock will break down for a long enough period of time to allow the Westerlies to break through into our region and build a snowpack.

On the plus side, Howard Sheckter (who is friends with many climatologists) had this to say today:

PS: The update on El Nino today from NCEP is indicating some back peddling. There are doubts now whether the atmosphere will ever couple up, El Nino Style to the slightly warm waters over the central pacific. The forecast is for very weak to neutral conditions this Fall/Winter. This is “one” reason why this winter will be so hard to predict.  The issue is that there are few strong signels to go with.

Cliff Mass also discusses this on his blog: cliffmass.blogspot.com/

He speaks of a lag effect even if the El Nino doesn't develop.

The unpredictability is something we might be able to hang our hats on.

Bad ski seasons make good winter climbing seasons.

I wrote about this--including the winters of 1963, 1977 and 2005--in my essay for John Scurlock's book "Snow & Spire."

alpenglow.org/themes/ncascade-winter/index.html

Every day is a powder day - page 8.

(remember that? a 70" base at alpental in a couple weeks)

Sure do! I actually kicked off my first TAY starting that April.
"It's more important to know whether there will be an weather than what the weather will be."--the whether man, from the Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Ski ya'll soon!

You guys are using all this high tech info to get a Winter analysis.
I use the Squirrel-O-Meter up here in Greenwater. Judging on the lack of enthusiasm to gather food I see from the local Douglas Squirrels it infers that the Winter is going to be somewhat tame. At one point they were starting to hustle and get hostile and chippy, but they have laid back and are less aggressive to gather the goods.
Not a good sign for the Winter, Plus I have not bought my Crystal Pass and that may be a sign too.