TR Replies
The upper NE slope of Ruby has a slight, rounded shoulder on the climbers left. You can see it on the topo map. The skiers in the NWAC photo are near (or on) this shoulder.
I think it's fair to say that nobody has ever seen an avalanche of this magnitude on this slope. So it's not unusual for the skin track to wander into the depression where the avalanche ran (though it's better to stay to climbers left), and that's typically where people ski down. Up higher, the...
I think it's fair to say that nobody has ever seen an avalanche of this magnitude on this slope. So it's not unusual for the skin track to wander into the depression where the avalanche ran (though it's better to stay to climbers left), and that's typically where people ski down. Up higher, the...
Thanks for the post, Charlie, I almost missed it. I was checking hourly today in the Weak Layers section, looking for Ruby Mt something.
I understand the desire of some posters here to see a profile of the snowpack, either at Ruby or anywhere in question. My approach is to always ASSUME there is a PWL down deep and act accordingly. Like Karl Klassen wrote, March is not the best time to challenge the mountains, especially not steep slopes below cornices! Unless you ar...
I understand the desire of some posters here to see a profile of the snowpack, either at Ruby or anywhere in question. My approach is to always ASSUME there is a PWL down deep and act accordingly. Like Karl Klassen wrote, March is not the best time to challenge the mountains, especially not steep slopes below cornices! Unless you ar...
I do see how impractical it is, especially the ability to test for instability.
Those profiles are pretty cool though. It took me a minute to orient myself to what they are showing but that is cool to show the locations at different points in time. The change in density seems like it would highlight problems.
It seems like early season readings are changing location with elevation likely because of low snowfall. I was looking at the Macdonald site. I will go thru some more...
Those profiles are pretty cool though. It took me a minute to orient myself to what they are showing but that is cool to show the locations at different points in time. The change in density seems like it would highlight problems.
It seems like early season readings are changing location with elevation likely because of low snowfall. I was looking at the Macdonald site. I will go thru some more...
Ron, with deep instabilities be they surface hoar, facets, or bond to ice crusts (or even a wet layer or graupel for awhile), if buried deeply, even recognizing the weak layer and testing it doesn't help all that much unless and until the results become nearly uniform across terrain. For one, even if you get such and such marginal test result, if it is deep, there is no way to evaluate whether or not it could be triggered in any particular location. Just how does your body influence the lay...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154722#msg154722 date=1490204476]
I would pay a higher membership fee to nwac if they answered in email form these questions for me say Friday afternoon
funny!
NWAC relies on you and me and TAY everybody in the community--along with all their more scientific tools and professionals--to issue their reports. Over the years I've seen a lot of cross pollination; info featured on their si...
I think that is at heart of the reluctance to produce something like this. The experts don't want to risk creditibily with it being wrong or used incorrectly. The avalanche forecasts themselves suffer from that reality and take a lot of criticism.
I just see that a lot is lost with that reluctance get more specific.
My usual questions to myself when something like this happens are along the lines of;
What surface was it on?
What past storm was it...
I just see that a lot is lost with that reluctance get more specific.
My usual questions to myself when something like this happens are along the lines of;
What surface was it on?
What past storm was it...
I may have been somewhat Swiftian in my last post, but I do think it's true.
I get what you're saying Ron-- I think a regional snowpack profile schematic would be helpful and provide a good general historical overview and reference, somewhat like the snotels.
I also think it would be wise to post a big fat disclaimer along with such a profile that it should not be used to forecast avalanche probability. There's way too much variability in terms of aspect,...
Ha, sure while I am just daydreaming that sounds great. Let's barcode each flake as it forms and track it in an asset management system throughout the water cycle.
More practically I am thinking a profile drawing by region with the major storm cylces depicted would be a good reference tool to cut and paste in these discussions. We could just continue to develope it as the season progresses and then it shows visually how it evolved throuout the year and could compare years visuall...
More practically I am thinking a profile drawing by region with the major storm cylces depicted would be a good reference tool to cut and paste in these discussions. We could just continue to develope it as the season progresses and then it shows visually how it evolved throuout the year and could compare years visuall...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154715#msg154715 date=1490194943]
It may exist some where that I am not aware of already but I have felt that a missing piece of a lot of the avalanche discussion here is a commonly understood and referenced snowpack profile. It would be a great visual reference to make the discussions and warnings more specific.
It would be great to have this knowledge! Seems though in reality this would require a...
Thanks Gary. I think you have summed up pretty well what points NWac might put in a warning. Others mentioned north slopes being a greater risk. If that is the case they might get more specific that way. As far as incorporating it in my own planning I will likely stay off bigger exposures a while longer this spring.
Kidding aside though, when these deep buried pwl are an issue, I do wonder at how they appear when exposed. I have looked at obvious ones in old slide paths and a long tim...
Kidding aside though, when these deep buried pwl are an issue, I do wonder at how they appear when exposed. I have looked at obvious ones in old slide paths and a long tim...
There are several messages in the Karl Klassen message that resonate not only in the recent Ruby event but also with respect to the current state of the snowpack. The most obvious is the concept of dealing with high consequence avalanche situations. The methodology that he suggests in describing what he would do is the take home point. And the points he makes are relevant here now even if the snowpacks are different. The common thread is that when there is the prospect/potential of major slides,...
Good points Aleksey.
There's a lot of warmth and precip saturation in the snowpack this week (again!), at least at the mid elevations (4-5K), with a cooling trend for the weekend. May take some time for that cooling to solidify things though, and the cooling looks to be temporary. May be good... hard to say from here. I wouldn't count on corn on Rainier though... looks like 2' of new between now and then.
There's a lot of warmth and precip saturation in the snowpack this week (again!), at least at the mid elevations (4-5K), with a cooling trend for the weekend. May take some time for that cooling to solidify things though, and the cooling looks to be temporary. May be good... hard to say from here. I wouldn't count on corn on Rainier though... looks like 2' of new between now and then.
author=lefty72 link=top...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154700#msg154700 date=1490151482]
It is a rare skier who would dig 7'. If someone were to do this would the layer be identifiable? Send out the pro observers for some excercise? I would be interested in how to incorporate these clues into plans for the weekend.
unarguable. just seems like a bit of a pattern building. knowing about this event makes me:
1) extra weary of travel beneath...
It is a rare skier who would dig 7'. If someone were to do this would the layer be identifiable? Send out the pro observers for some excercise? I would be interested in how to incorporate these clues into plans for the weekend.
I am just stalking this discussion from California. It seems like based on this report from Canada, the event on Ruby, an earlier massive avalanche in the Pemberton area after a skier cornice cut, and finally the number of accidents posted on NWAC in the first few days of March there is a chance that something is of concern in the snowpack in the PACNW. Seems like an interesting thread worth being aware of and perhaps included in the avalanche forecast from NWAC. Interesting an...
Thanks for the post and photos. I wouldn't want to be in that avalanche path.
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=38158.msg154674#msg154674 date=1490074890]
"March 2017 Low Probability-High Consequence Avalanche Cycle"
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
thanks for the link Lowell
was in AK for most of winter and suddenly feeling very out of touch with the snowpack.
is your take that this is the same layering problem as whats described in the avalance.c...
"March 2017 Low Probability-High Consequence Avalanche Cycle"
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
author=cumulus link=topic=38158.msg154671#msg154671 date=1490068591]
Thanks for the link Charlie! And thanks to whoever posted that. That's valuable info (and scary ..and lucky!)
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Thanks for the link Charlie! And thanks to whoever posted that. That's valuable info (and scary ..and lucky!)
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Sounds better than hiking up and down Mt Si for sure. FYI your pictures just show up as "X's" for me.
Snow was quite good on the Paradise glacier as well, especially in the steep roll section around 8k. Made the poor decision to ski a second lap (overstoke) and the snow was refreezing and not as good. Ran into PeteA and his crew, but otherwise solitude in those parts.
Camping at Paradise was nice. We were hoping for another proto-corn run today, but the wind and high clouds told us it was not to be.
Camping at Paradise was nice. We were hoping for another proto-corn run today, but the wind and high clouds told us it was not to be.
That would have been incredible to see and terrifying to be below. I'm thankful they made it out ok and shared the observation.
The Holy diver couloir and the boot track up the East ridge of Roosevelt.
And more pics with Jake's special extra attachment that transforms the whippet closer to an ice ax (ask Jake for purchasing!)
A fun tour and great day in the Alpine. More pics.
Good for you. Was looking at it longingly. But being by myself and based on my observations at Crystal was hesitant to go up. Sorry I didn't as Crystal was unskiable off piste.
author=Mike Cheney link=topic=38153.msg154633#msg154633 date=1489987675]
Thanks for the beta!... I gate is open during the week after April 1, yes? I've yet to make it out this year... had much fun last year and 3 or 4 years back
I asked the gate keeper this morning on the way up regarding April road access and she replied "It doesn't look good." From my experience, road access in April is intermittent and not...
author=runcle link=topic=38153.msg154624#msg154624 date=1489971854]
Mostly sunny in the morning turning mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Low temps around 17 last night with an inch of new dust on supportive crust made for pleasant yet challenging turns on northern aspects with southern exposures getting a bit sun baked and damp but still nice. Slipped on the crust while trying to arrest my fall and abraded a nice chunk of skin off of my thumb. Put the gloves on...
Thanks for that. Avalanche retrospectives are extremely valuable and good reminders to be careful, as you point out.
Nice! Sounds primo. Thanks for the report from down south.
Nice report! Seems like there should be more options to ski tour out there, without a sled. I know the locals ski Goat Mountain in good snow years. Plowing to Silverstar during winter would provide a great resource to the masses.
author=haggis link=topic=38102.msg154518#msg154518 date=1489511585]
Care to update on the hut numbers?
Which numbers do you mean?
As for crowdedness, on a midweek trip, there were 4 others the first night, nobody night 2, 4 night 3, and 2 night 4. So with our party of 10, one of whom was sick with the flu and couldn't ski, we maxed out the hut at 14 people. I think it comfortably sleeps about 20. They are considering add...
I wondered what it looks like there, it was crap weather when I was there. I heard reports that the WTH gets lots of traffic these days due to now having a stove (really cold when I was there years ago without). Care to update on the hut numbers? Certainly looks good! Also, I agree on the ACC thing but for $not a lot a night it certainly is OK.
Great report and photos. Brings back fond memories of the Duffy and Joffre/Matier.
I love skiing the Cutthroat area and those sweeping views. Thanks for the mid-winter report and photos. Looks fantastic!
Wow, looks fantastic. And happy birthday!
Very Nice Sky! I'll show this to Cyril next week:-)
That Gunn Ranch tour is a brilliant idea. During Methow Valley xc trips, I often look up at those valley slopes and think what fine runs they'd offer. Usually there isn't enough snow, but when there is, well, your tr confirms my thoughts.
thanks - bummer about the heater being gone.
Hi Pete, no, there is no longer any kerosene heater, just the wood stove. There was a Coleman 2-burner stove for cooking that we wished we'd known about.
nice write-up! I assume there's still a kerosene heater in the hut that you can use if ya haul in fuel for it?
Thanks Billyd! And thanks for telling folks about the Methow Headwaters project.
It was a spectacular trip. We were granted near-perfect weather and snow conditions. Nice boot-top powder and stability, although there were just enough wind slabs lurking at ridgetops to keep of from green light conditions.
Our company was great. I learned from Gregg_C the golden rule of hut trips: strive for 1:1 gender ratio. That is the key to fun times, rather than a bunch of bros sitting around staring at maps and grunting about how rad to get tomorrow. The only bummer was that...
Our company was great. I learned from Gregg_C the golden rule of hut trips: strive for 1:1 gender ratio. That is the key to fun times, rather than a bunch of bros sitting around staring at maps and grunting about how rad to get tomorrow. The only bummer was that...
Heartstrings is a line with a very unlikely entrance through big cliffs.
It offers spectacular position as you ski through these cliffs. Snow was pretty good in the top bit, but the run overall is lower, and we finished off the trip skiing through some solid crust. It was just the thing to finish off the trip!
We met Meira in Whistler that afternoon, where she'd opted for a spa day at the Scandinave. Probably a good choice!
It offers spectacular position as you ski through these cliffs. Snow was pretty good in the top bit, but the run overall is lower, and we finished off the trip skiing through some solid crust. It was just the thing to finish off the trip!
We met Meira in Whistler that afternoon, where she'd opted for a spa day at the Scandinave. Probably a good choice!
The Hut Spine Wall, 20 minutes from your front door
We spent 1 night in Mount Currie at a decent motel, and gorged on good food in Pemberton. But it wasn't enough, we wanted more pow.
The objective for Saturday was suggested by some locals as a "straightforward half-day classic": Heartstrings
He was a sandbagger, but the views of the Joffre group and across the road to our Marriott haunts were killer
We spent 1 night in Mount Currie at a decent motel, and gorged on good food in Pemberton. But it wasn't enough, we wanted more pow.
The objective for Saturday was suggested by some locals as a "straightforward half-day classic": Heartstrings
He was a sandbagger, but the views of the Joffre group and across the road to our Marriott haunts were killer
To get to Cayoosh creek we dropped a nice tube, one away from "Rock and Roll". This SE aspect still had really good snow after lots of sunshine, but it got crusty towards the bottom.
We skied from the summit onto the N glacier of Cayoosh. Swivel Rocker (center of Cayoosh photo) would've been dope, but we botched the entrance and settled for the glacier. It was super-deep and super-good. We had a track to guide us from a solo Austrian dude who we'd watch ski it 2 da...
We skied from the summit onto the N glacier of Cayoosh. Swivel Rocker (center of Cayoosh photo) would've been dope, but we botched the entrance and settled for the glacier. It was super-deep and super-good. We had a track to guide us from a solo Austrian dude who we'd watch ski it 2 da...
Skiing into our one near-whiteout returning to the hut day 3
For our last full day we chose to ski Cayoosh, one valley over.
We toured up the whiteout run from the day before, where we'd put in the skintrack already, and topped out on Exidor bowl. (Mt. Marriott in distance)
For our last full day we chose to ski Cayoosh, one valley over.
We toured up the whiteout run from the day before, where we'd put in the skintrack already, and topped out on Exidor bowl. (Mt. Marriott in distance)