TR Replies
thanks Kam,
looks like Googoo photos forces me to make an album in order to designate them public... won't do it for individual photos as far as I could tell
looks like Googoo photos forces me to make an album in order to designate them public... won't do it for individual photos as far as I could tell
Carry the water, remove the water....
TAY ! Thanks for a great discussion. It's been a pretty fantastic snow year. The last week of February and the first two weeks of March especially so with stable cold weather conditions and fresh snow almost every night.
In the North Columbia and Cariboo the Avy situation became much more of a concern around the fifth or sixth of March as all of the new snow stressed a buried rain crust. Avalanche.ca reported at that time that the snowpack had reached a "threshold"...
In the North Columbia and Cariboo the Avy situation became much more of a concern around the fifth or sixth of March as all of the new snow stressed a buried rain crust. Avalanche.ca reported at that time that the snowpack had reached a "threshold"...
I've seen ski tracks that started from a traverse onto a slope and below a short distance of cornice and have observed from the dropping of the cornice, pillow/slab immediately under the cornice, propagate resulting in the whole slope going. So glad nobody was below in harms way. That is a very common place from my experience, to find instability when everything else is "blower".. Not sure what a pit or compression test/ext column test would tell me about this very localize...
This time of year, for low elevation skiing in particular, I would be more reluctant to ski south facing slopes that are wind slabbed up than N ones.. Wouldn't they be more susceptible to instability due to more heating?
ditto persistent deep pack issues that could be stepped down to...
ditto persistent deep pack issues that could be stepped down to...
Detailed profiles take time, especially for proper documentation.. It gets introduced in a formal way in the (now-changing) level-2 AIARE courses.
The procedures are nicely documented in the SWAG guidelines, viewable in PDF form here: http://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/swag/ Snow profiles start on page 22. Make profiles as clean and square as you can; you know you're getting there when the structure is easily visible.
A great time to practice is a day when the...
The procedures are nicely documented in the SWAG guidelines, viewable in PDF form here: http://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/swag/ Snow profiles start on page 22. Make profiles as clean and square as you can; you know you're getting there when the structure is easily visible.
A great time to practice is a day when the...
I altered my weekend plans partly for weather but also due to the warnings here. I am still a little puzzled by the take away from this discussion. The slides do seem unusual. Is it due to the year being wetter with more sub zero days than normal? Are more of these unusual slides related to the February or November storm layers? Ultimately how long and what am I looking for to feel more comfortable? Is a couple of good freeze thaw cycles in the area I want to ski what I am looking for?
Thanks to Charlie for posting this, and to all who contributed!
There was also one of these near-Himalayan scale avalanches on the south side of Rainier back in the seventies. It left a crown fracture at least thirty feet high from Gibraltar across the upper Nisqually, covering most of the glacier with large debris down past the Wilson Crossing almost to the current terminus.
There was also one of these near-Himalayan scale avalanches on the south side of Rainier back in the seventies. It left a crown fracture at least thirty feet high from Gibraltar across the upper Nisqually, covering most of the glacier with large debris down past the Wilson Crossing almost to the current terminus.
The upper NE slope of Ruby has a slight, rounded shoulder on the climbers left. You can see it on the topo map. The skiers in the NWAC photo are near (or on) this shoulder.
I think it's fair to say that nobody has ever seen an avalanche of this magnitude on this slope. So it's not unusual for the skin track to wander into the depression where the avalanche ran (though it's better to stay to climbers left), and that's typically where people ski down. Up higher, the...
I think it's fair to say that nobody has ever seen an avalanche of this magnitude on this slope. So it's not unusual for the skin track to wander into the depression where the avalanche ran (though it's better to stay to climbers left), and that's typically where people ski down. Up higher, the...
Thanks for the post, Charlie, I almost missed it. I was checking hourly today in the Weak Layers section, looking for Ruby Mt something.
I understand the desire of some posters here to see a profile of the snowpack, either at Ruby or anywhere in question. My approach is to always ASSUME there is a PWL down deep and act accordingly. Like Karl Klassen wrote, March is not the best time to challenge the mountains, especially not steep slopes below cornices! Unless you ar...
I understand the desire of some posters here to see a profile of the snowpack, either at Ruby or anywhere in question. My approach is to always ASSUME there is a PWL down deep and act accordingly. Like Karl Klassen wrote, March is not the best time to challenge the mountains, especially not steep slopes below cornices! Unless you ar...
I do see how impractical it is, especially the ability to test for instability.
Those profiles are pretty cool though. It took me a minute to orient myself to what they are showing but that is cool to show the locations at different points in time. The change in density seems like it would highlight problems.
It seems like early season readings are changing location with elevation likely because of low snowfall. I was looking at the Macdonald site. I will go thru some more...
Those profiles are pretty cool though. It took me a minute to orient myself to what they are showing but that is cool to show the locations at different points in time. The change in density seems like it would highlight problems.
It seems like early season readings are changing location with elevation likely because of low snowfall. I was looking at the Macdonald site. I will go thru some more...
Ron, with deep instabilities be they surface hoar, facets, or bond to ice crusts (or even a wet layer or graupel for awhile), if buried deeply, even recognizing the weak layer and testing it doesn't help all that much unless and until the results become nearly uniform across terrain. For one, even if you get such and such marginal test result, if it is deep, there is no way to evaluate whether or not it could be triggered in any particular location. Just how does your body influence the lay...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154722#msg154722 date=1490204476]
I would pay a higher membership fee to nwac if they answered in email form these questions for me say Friday afternoon
funny!
NWAC relies on you and me and TAY everybody in the community--along with all their more scientific tools and professionals--to issue their reports. Over the years I've seen a lot of cross pollination; info featured on their si...
I think that is at heart of the reluctance to produce something like this. The experts don't want to risk creditibily with it being wrong or used incorrectly. The avalanche forecasts themselves suffer from that reality and take a lot of criticism.
I just see that a lot is lost with that reluctance get more specific.
My usual questions to myself when something like this happens are along the lines of;
What surface was it on?
What past storm was it...
I just see that a lot is lost with that reluctance get more specific.
My usual questions to myself when something like this happens are along the lines of;
What surface was it on?
What past storm was it...
I may have been somewhat Swiftian in my last post, but I do think it's true.
I get what you're saying Ron-- I think a regional snowpack profile schematic would be helpful and provide a good general historical overview and reference, somewhat like the snotels.
I also think it would be wise to post a big fat disclaimer along with such a profile that it should not be used to forecast avalanche probability. There's way too much variability in terms of aspect,...
Ha, sure while I am just daydreaming that sounds great. Let's barcode each flake as it forms and track it in an asset management system throughout the water cycle.
More practically I am thinking a profile drawing by region with the major storm cylces depicted would be a good reference tool to cut and paste in these discussions. We could just continue to develope it as the season progresses and then it shows visually how it evolved throuout the year and could compare years visuall...
More practically I am thinking a profile drawing by region with the major storm cylces depicted would be a good reference tool to cut and paste in these discussions. We could just continue to develope it as the season progresses and then it shows visually how it evolved throuout the year and could compare years visuall...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154715#msg154715 date=1490194943]
It may exist some where that I am not aware of already but I have felt that a missing piece of a lot of the avalanche discussion here is a commonly understood and referenced snowpack profile. It would be a great visual reference to make the discussions and warnings more specific.
It would be great to have this knowledge! Seems though in reality this would require a...
Thanks Gary. I think you have summed up pretty well what points NWac might put in a warning. Others mentioned north slopes being a greater risk. If that is the case they might get more specific that way. As far as incorporating it in my own planning I will likely stay off bigger exposures a while longer this spring.
Kidding aside though, when these deep buried pwl are an issue, I do wonder at how they appear when exposed. I have looked at obvious ones in old slide paths and a long tim...
Kidding aside though, when these deep buried pwl are an issue, I do wonder at how they appear when exposed. I have looked at obvious ones in old slide paths and a long tim...
There are several messages in the Karl Klassen message that resonate not only in the recent Ruby event but also with respect to the current state of the snowpack. The most obvious is the concept of dealing with high consequence avalanche situations. The methodology that he suggests in describing what he would do is the take home point. And the points he makes are relevant here now even if the snowpacks are different. The common thread is that when there is the prospect/potential of major slides,...
Good points Aleksey.
There's a lot of warmth and precip saturation in the snowpack this week (again!), at least at the mid elevations (4-5K), with a cooling trend for the weekend. May take some time for that cooling to solidify things though, and the cooling looks to be temporary. May be good... hard to say from here. I wouldn't count on corn on Rainier though... looks like 2' of new between now and then.
There's a lot of warmth and precip saturation in the snowpack this week (again!), at least at the mid elevations (4-5K), with a cooling trend for the weekend. May take some time for that cooling to solidify things though, and the cooling looks to be temporary. May be good... hard to say from here. I wouldn't count on corn on Rainier though... looks like 2' of new between now and then.
author=lefty72 link=top...
author=RonL link=topic=38158.msg154700#msg154700 date=1490151482]
It is a rare skier who would dig 7'. If someone were to do this would the layer be identifiable? Send out the pro observers for some excercise? I would be interested in how to incorporate these clues into plans for the weekend.
unarguable. just seems like a bit of a pattern building. knowing about this event makes me:
1) extra weary of travel beneath...
It is a rare skier who would dig 7'. If someone were to do this would the layer be identifiable? Send out the pro observers for some excercise? I would be interested in how to incorporate these clues into plans for the weekend.
I am just stalking this discussion from California. It seems like based on this report from Canada, the event on Ruby, an earlier massive avalanche in the Pemberton area after a skier cornice cut, and finally the number of accidents posted on NWAC in the first few days of March there is a chance that something is of concern in the snowpack in the PACNW. Seems like an interesting thread worth being aware of and perhaps included in the avalanche forecast from NWAC. Interesting an...
Thanks for the post and photos. I wouldn't want to be in that avalanche path.
author=Lowell_Skoog link=topic=38158.msg154674#msg154674 date=1490074890]
"March 2017 Low Probability-High Consequence Avalanche Cycle"
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
thanks for the link Lowell
was in AK for most of winter and suddenly feeling very out of touch with the snowpack.
is your take that this is the same layering problem as whats described in the avalance.c...
"March 2017 Low Probability-High Consequence Avalanche Cycle"
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle
author=cumulus link=topic=38158.msg154671#msg154671 date=1490068591]
Thanks for the link Charlie! And thanks to whoever posted that. That's valuable info (and scary ..and lucky!)
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Thanks for the link Charlie! And thanks to whoever posted that. That's valuable info (and scary ..and lucky!)
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Would be interesting to know what the running surface is with "the crown fracture face between 7'-25' tall." It's leeward, so more rapid build up, but with depth like that seems it would pre-date this last rain cycle...
Sounds better than hiking up and down Mt Si for sure. FYI your pictures just show up as "X's" for me.
Snow was quite good on the Paradise glacier as well, especially in the steep roll section around 8k. Made the poor decision to ski a second lap (overstoke) and the snow was refreezing and not as good. Ran into PeteA and his crew, but otherwise solitude in those parts.
Camping at Paradise was nice. We were hoping for another proto-corn run today, but the wind and high clouds told us it was not to be.
Camping at Paradise was nice. We were hoping for another proto-corn run today, but the wind and high clouds told us it was not to be.
That would have been incredible to see and terrifying to be below. I'm thankful they made it out ok and shared the observation.
The Holy diver couloir and the boot track up the East ridge of Roosevelt.
And more pics with Jake's special extra attachment that transforms the whippet closer to an ice ax (ask Jake for purchasing!)
A fun tour and great day in the Alpine. More pics.
Good for you. Was looking at it longingly. But being by myself and based on my observations at Crystal was hesitant to go up. Sorry I didn't as Crystal was unskiable off piste.
author=Mike Cheney link=topic=38153.msg154633#msg154633 date=1489987675]
Thanks for the beta!... I gate is open during the week after April 1, yes? I've yet to make it out this year... had much fun last year and 3 or 4 years back
I asked the gate keeper this morning on the way up regarding April road access and she replied "It doesn't look good." From my experience, road access in April is intermittent and not...
author=runcle link=topic=38153.msg154624#msg154624 date=1489971854]
Mostly sunny in the morning turning mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Low temps around 17 last night with an inch of new dust on supportive crust made for pleasant yet challenging turns on northern aspects with southern exposures getting a bit sun baked and damp but still nice. Slipped on the crust while trying to arrest my fall and abraded a nice chunk of skin off of my thumb. Put the gloves on...
Thanks for that. Avalanche retrospectives are extremely valuable and good reminders to be careful, as you point out.
Nice! Sounds primo. Thanks for the report from down south.
Nice report! Seems like there should be more options to ski tour out there, without a sled. I know the locals ski Goat Mountain in good snow years. Plowing to Silverstar during winter would provide a great resource to the masses.
author=haggis link=topic=38102.msg154518#msg154518 date=1489511585]
Care to update on the hut numbers?
Which numbers do you mean?
As for crowdedness, on a midweek trip, there were 4 others the first night, nobody night 2, 4 night 3, and 2 night 4. So with our party of 10, one of whom was sick with the flu and couldn't ski, we maxed out the hut at 14 people. I think it comfortably sleeps about 20. They are considering add...
I wondered what it looks like there, it was crap weather when I was there. I heard reports that the WTH gets lots of traffic these days due to now having a stove (really cold when I was there years ago without). Care to update on the hut numbers? Certainly looks good! Also, I agree on the ACC thing but for $not a lot a night it certainly is OK.
Great report and photos. Brings back fond memories of the Duffy and Joffre/Matier.