Thanks, Jake. Also note the Blewett Pass avalanche last week, in addition to the Cannon snowpit of 3/17. It isn't clear though that the Mt. Cashmere accident involved the same layer that is still being mentioned in today's avy forecast. But one of the big problems is that east of the crest PWKL (persistent weak layers) still exist and they aren't buried as deeply, meaning they are easier to trigger directly, by stepping down, or with the sudden load of another shallower avalanche, even a good sized wet sluff.
I find it very useful to pay attention to the Canadian Forecasts (avalanche.ca) not only for relevance, but also for the behavior of weaker snowpacks that we don't see very often. Notice the language about cornice failure, avalanches stepping down, wet slide triggering, the significance of convexities in human triggering in this forecast from Banff. I'm not saying the problems are the same, they aren't, but the behavior of facets or hoar above crusts is similar to the behavior of the full-on depth hoar that is the biggest concern near Banff. Notice the relatively shallow snowpack depths that allow for the development and maintenance of depth hoar (very mature facets). Reading these forecasts periodically is very educational.
www.pc.gc.ca/apps/PSB/index_e.asp?oqAVA_park_ID=2
In any case we are likely approaching our first significant warm storm/spring avalanche cycle the end of next week with freezing levels as high as 8-9,000' (depending on the forecasting model) for about 36 hours. If this is indeed a "dirty ridge" it means skies will remain mostly cloudy and a freeze overnight may not happen. Avalanches east of the Cascades down to the old crust/facet layer would seem likely as the weak layer weakens by warming and is challenged by the redistribution of stresses in the stronger, more recent snow layers nearer the surface.
