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From NWAC - This is worth noting
- Joedabaker
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14 years 10 months ago #199719
by Joedabaker
Replied by Joedabaker on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
Did you see if Jim Hell went?
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- garyabrill
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14 years 10 months ago - 14 years 10 months ago #199734
by garyabrill
I like that...Jim Hell. No, it will be as brushy as ever next year. Really, I just was looking at the mega avalanches as I believe they are historic. So, far just the steeper terrain for the most part has had these slides. But I am sure the operative word is so far. But, I'd guess Jim Hill (e) will get away with it this year.
I've flown a couple of other times in 2003 and 2005 after major spring cycles and on those years some pretty remarkable terrain avalanched. Often these mega slides initiate in relatively steep terrain, but because of the cohesiveness of the slab and significance of the weak layer, they often propagate onto quite low angle terrain. But on these other years which had similar weaknesses (though likely not as bad) and with much smaller slabs there were some pretty surprising avalanches.
Now, of course, there were also many slides of much smaller dimensions that released in late March this year and most valley floors show lumpy, wet debris. Often the crowns of these slides (some were undoubtedly sluffs) were not visible.
There were also about 40 or 50 fresh 1 to 2' slabs that released on 4/11 and 4/12 in considerable hazard to give a guage of the forecast for those days. Some of those slabs ran a long distance.
I'd also point out that the snowpack is humungous, especially at higher elevations. It wouldn't be surprising if some areas have snow depths to 400". I did see a couple of glide cracks that looked to be 25-30' or so.
Replied by garyabrill on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
Did you see if Jim Hell went?
I like that...Jim Hell. No, it will be as brushy as ever next year. Really, I just was looking at the mega avalanches as I believe they are historic. So, far just the steeper terrain for the most part has had these slides. But I am sure the operative word is so far. But, I'd guess Jim Hill (e) will get away with it this year.
I've flown a couple of other times in 2003 and 2005 after major spring cycles and on those years some pretty remarkable terrain avalanched. Often these mega slides initiate in relatively steep terrain, but because of the cohesiveness of the slab and significance of the weak layer, they often propagate onto quite low angle terrain. But on these other years which had similar weaknesses (though likely not as bad) and with much smaller slabs there were some pretty surprising avalanches.
Now, of course, there were also many slides of much smaller dimensions that released in late March this year and most valley floors show lumpy, wet debris. Often the crowns of these slides (some were undoubtedly sluffs) were not visible.
There were also about 40 or 50 fresh 1 to 2' slabs that released on 4/11 and 4/12 in considerable hazard to give a guage of the forecast for those days. Some of those slabs ran a long distance.
I'd also point out that the snowpack is humungous, especially at higher elevations. It wouldn't be surprising if some areas have snow depths to 400". I did see a couple of glide cracks that looked to be 25-30' or so.
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14 years 10 months ago #199796
by garyabrill
Replied by garyabrill on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
Apparently, Jim Hell had a significant avalanche that took out the brushy conifers at 4500'. The crown was probably not huge (or it had filled in by 4/12) and was not visible.
Here are photos of some of the mega slides from the 4/12 flyover. They are at NWAC under Resources:Photos.
www.nwac.us/photos/view/avalanches/current/
The biggest in the Chiwaukums, near Snowgrass had a 10-15' crown, the Grouse Creek slide was about 12', the one on Buckindy could easily have been 20'.
Here are photos of some of the mega slides from the 4/12 flyover. They are at NWAC under Resources:Photos.
www.nwac.us/photos/view/avalanches/current/
The biggest in the Chiwaukums, near Snowgrass had a 10-15' crown, the Grouse Creek slide was about 12', the one on Buckindy could easily have been 20'.
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- peteyboy
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14 years 10 months ago #199798
by peteyboy
Replied by peteyboy on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
I post this here because of the focus being on unreliability of stability now and particularly this spring, and the "challenges" NWAC has to face as a result. Yesterday, our party of very experienced BC skiers shoulda known better, but allowed ourselves to fall into classic heuristic traps and put ourselves in a position where we caused a large slab release on the recent crust (only the 10 inches of fresh or so on top) that ran fast & far in the Baker sidecountry. We only made exactly the same mistakes Marcus' group did and we very lucky no one was hurt. NWAC, it's worth noting, had a high/considerable rating posted for Sunday on Saturday (what we were going with - go figger) that they downgraded to low/moderate for Sunday on Sunday. Glad we're ok, frustrated we weren't smarter, and glad I don't have to be responsible for publishing a rating every day.
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14 years 10 months ago #199799
by Marcus
Replied by Marcus on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
Thanks for sharing that peteyboy -- glad no one was hurt. You should pass that onto the NWAC site if you haven't already...
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14 years 10 months ago #199803
by peteyboy
Replied by peteyboy on topic Re: From NWAC - This is worth noting
Thanks Marcus -
Man, am I frustrated with myself that I wasn't adequately impacted by the learning opportunity (reminder of the risk scenario) you just gave us all a refresher course in.
Man, am I frustrated with myself that I wasn't adequately impacted by the learning opportunity (reminder of the risk scenario) you just gave us all a refresher course in.
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