Seattle Times: "The truth about global warming"

Science tempers fears on climate change
Matthew Warren
September 02, 2006
THE world's top climate scientists have cut their worst-case forecast for global warming over the next 100 years.

A draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, obtained exclusively by The Weekend Australian, offers a more certain projection of climate change than the body's forecasts five years ago.

For the first time, scientists are confident enough to project a 3C rise on the average global daily temperature by the end of this century if no action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20...20332352-601,00.html



Oh well, if one does not like this story, there will be a different one soon. Accurate computer-modeling and such...

From the National Academy of Sciences:

"...Because of larger uncertainties in temperature reconstructions for decades and individual years, and because not all proxies record temperatures for such short timescales, even less confidence can be placed in the Mann team's conclusions about the 1990s, and 1998 in particular..."

"...The reconstructions show relatively warm conditions centered around the year 1000, and a relatively cold period, or "Little Ice Age," from roughly 1500 to 1850. " Perhaps this explains the advance and then the recent shrinking of glaciers.

Actually, it would appear more can be found by observation, for instance, I just visited an area in the Olympics with a top elevation of 6000', yet there was a large moraine extending to about 3000' from the little ice ages (tree evidence). The age of the trees would indicate a wholesale retreat of the glaciers relatively early in the little ice age history - a few hundred years ago at least. Now for glaciers to have exited in this area at all, it must have been both cool and wet because of the low elevation. Since larger glaciers with higher catchments retreated only relatively relecently from little ice age maximums - 1840-1900 - it would appear that the early period of the little ice ages was wet and cool, the latter period, still wet, but not as cool - low elevation glaciers could no longer be maintained.

Interesting to note that in the Yukon, archaeologists are finding, melting out of the ice, wooden implements dating back 150 to 10000 years old associated with Cariboo dung (Cariboo have been gone for about 70 years in this area).
So there is evidence of the minimum extent of these ice patches, many of them 2500 years to 8500 years old. Wooden tools and implements would disappear in a relatively short (30 years or so) period. This goes well beyond the 900 year period of the Little Ice Ages, and not surprisingly it is happening in the high latitudes where temperatures have already risen up to 7 degrees F in the past 50 years. Source: Archaeological Conservancy.

As to long term meteorological variations over eons, they probably relate to a lesser degree on variations on incoming solar radiation, and to a greater degree on configuration of the earth's land mases, increases in tectonic activity and associated volcanism, and possibly to impactsd and there effects on incoming solar radiation. The latter may be of a much shorter duration, but perhaps not, because "ice begets ice", i.e., the colder it is, the more ice there is, and the colder it becomes, etc., and visa versa, as we are seeing now.

By the way, whatever happened to the cold phase of the PDO?

As to "Gloom and Doom" - it's a clever political buzzword - nothing more. When I see the term being used, I know there is a lack of objective thinking going on.

The way I look at the global warming model is like this: It is possible to know the direction of global warming but not the magnitude. It may be greater than shown on most any model, or it may be less. A factor that would lead to greater effects rather than lesser is that many of the inputs are mutually enhancing, for instance, greater CO2>more atmospheric insulation>warmer temps>leads to more evaporation>more insulation, etc. When the models are rectified or trued by looking at their historic performance, they will appear to show a more or less linear relationship between green house gases and ocean/atmospheric temperatures, because the time frame is so short; yet, over a longer period of time, the effects may well be enhancing; multiplicative as opposed to additive or even exponential - and they will look so with a longer frame of reference. We are working in a petroleum refinery and playing with fire. edited to add: Basically, if you try to resolve what the models predict for the short period of history we have so far, unless the functions themselves are linear or follow a particular curve, not a curve made up of additives or multiplicatives, then the models may well accurately "predict" the past warming, but are likely to fall off the curve over a much longer and more dynamic period in the future. That is really where Calculus comes from, take a small enough segment of a curve, determine it's slope and it looks linear, etc. dx/dy. But look at a longer section of curve and it doesn't match up at all - unless one accurately knows or could predict with near certainty the impacts and interrelationships between the huge number of variables involved: practically an infinite number of equations would be necessary to accurately predict the behavior of a climatic model. Now, a weather model, that is different, because there is little difference between the shape of the curve over a short segment, and a slightly longer segment, but go beyond 5-10 days and the resolution of any change in a synoptic model is essentially chaos.

The mutually enhancing effects show up when one looks at GW on a synoptic scale: Take El Nino, for example. Well, warming ocean temps and their interaction with the atmosphere is clearly what El Nino is all about. So, if the ocean gets warmer, there is a tendency in the atmosphere to develop a deep trough off coast (more evaporative energy) which enhances the build of a strong and high amplitude ridge over north America, which causes the trough and ridge to remain semi-stationary. Well this stationary feature, the fetch of the trough in particular, carries warm water from SE Asia towards the eastern Pacific Pacific, which enhances the flow pattern - trough and ridge - which perpetuates El Nino conditions. Mitigating effects are (or used to be the PDO, Pacific Dicadal Oscillation, which causes (enhances) alternately patterns like this year with warm ocean temps off the coast, and, in it's negative phase, cooler than normal ocean temps off the coast (that's the good pattern for the northwest, (and Alaska and Canada, too). It's called the PDO because historically it switches it's polarity every 20 years or so - at least it used to....it did so in the 70's and in the 50's. But where is the negative phase PDO? There is a paper by a fellow, forget his name, on the relationship between El Ninos, and La Ninas, combined with ocean temps offshore (PDO). He is a meteorologist at NWS Anchorage and the paper is just a couple of years old...the analysis of statistics is very compelling.

So take a look at winter 2004-5, driest on record, right (or very close to it), the kind of winter I knew we might some day get, but dreaded. Now just 1-1/2 years later the driest summer on the northwest coast ever, right? Guess what, it's the worst summer on record ever in Juneau, constant rain. The pattern, stationary, as in an El Nino.....again...

U.S. HAS SECOND WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD
Nation Experienced Warmest January - August Period On Record

NOAA image of June-August 2006 statewide temperature rankings.Sept. 14, 2006 — Summer 2006 was the second warmest June-to-August period in the continental U.S. since records began in 1895, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Additionally, the 2006 January-to-August period was the warmest on record for the continental U.S. Above-average rainfall last month in the central and southwestern U.S. improved drought conditions in some areas, but moderate-to-extreme drought continued to affect 40 percent of the country. (Click NOAA image for larger view of June-August 2006 statewide temperature rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)

U.S. Temperature Highlights
The average June-August 2006 temperature for the contiguous United States (based on preliminary data) was 2.4 degrees F (1.3 degrees C) above the 20th century average of 72.1 degrees F (22.3 degrees C). This was the second warmest summer on record, slightly cooler than the record of 74.7 degrees F set in 1936 during the Dust Bowl era. This summer's average was 74.5 degrees F. Eight of the past ten summers have been warmer than the U.S. average for the same period.

NOAA image of June-August 2006 statewide precipitation rankings.The persistence of the anomalous warmth in 2006 made this January-August period the warmest on record for the continental U.S., eclipsing the previous record of 1934. (Click NOAA image for larger view of June-August 2006 statewide precipitation rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)

A blistering heat wave in July impacted most of the nation, breaking more than 2,300 daily records and more than 50 all-time high temperature records. Additional high temperature records were broken during the first part of August.

The Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI) ranked this summer as the sixth highest index in the 112-year record. Using this index, NOAA scientists determined that the nation's residential energy demand was approximately 10 percent higher than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the season.

Last month was the 11th warmest August on record in the contiguous U.S.

NOAA image of January-August 2006 statewide precipitation rankings.U.S. Precipitation Highlights
The summer's record and near-record heat, combined with below-average precipitation, worsened drought conditions throughout much of the summer for large parts of the country. But above-average rainfall in August helped ease drought conditions in some of the most severely affected states. (Click NOAA image for larger view of January-August 2006 statewide precipitation rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)

An active monsoon season in the Southwest gave New Mexico its wettest August on record, and precipitation in Arizona also was above average. Drought relief extended to New Mexico, parts of Arizona and west Texas. However, the heavy downpours brought flooding across parts of the entire region.

NOAA image of January-August 2006 statewide temperature rankings.The Plains states, the Midwest, the Carolinas and parts of the Northeast benefited from above-average precipitation in August. This helped reduce drought severity in other areas such as the Dakotas and parts of Oklahoma but was not sufficient to end drought in the most severely affected parts of those states. (Click NOAA image for larger view of January-August 2006 statewide temperature rankings. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Drought conditions worsened in some parts of the country. Rainfall in August was below normal from Montana to southern California and the Pacific Northwest. This contributed to a continuing and already-active wildfire season. Through early September, the number of acres burned in the U.S. is nearing the record of almost 8.7 million acres burned during all of 2005, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Global Highlights
It was the third warmest June-August (northern hemisphere summer) on record for global land- and ocean-surface temperatures since records began in 1880 (1.01 degrees F/0.56 degrees C above the 20th century mean) and the fourth warmest August (0.0.97 degrees F/0.54 degrees C). The warmest northern-hemisphere summer and August occurred in 1998.

In 2007 NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, celebrates 200 years of science and service to the nation. Starting with the establishment of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. The agency is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

Relevant Web Sites
Climate of 2006: August in Historical Perspective

NOAA Drought Information Center

Media Contact:
John Leslie, NOAA Satellite and Information Service, (301) 713-1265

www.nwhikers.net/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16581

Excerpts from an article:

Publish Date: 9/19/2006

Colorado State professor disputes global warming is human-caused
Views ‘out of step’ with others are good for science, academic says

By Kate Martin
The Daily Reporter-Herald


-Gray, who is a professor at Colorado State University, said human-induced global warming is a fear perpetuated by the media and scientists who are trying to get federal grants.

“I think we’re coming out of the little ice age, and warming is due to changes to ocean circulation patterns due to salinity variations,” Gray said. “I’m sure that’s it.”

Gray’s view has been challenged, however.

-Roger Pielke Jr., director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado, said in an interview later Monday that climate scientists involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that most of the warming is due to human activity.

-...Pielke said. But challenging widely held views is “good for science because it forces people to make their case and advances understanding.”



www.reporterherald.com/Top-Story.asp?ID=6894