Seattle Times: "The truth about global warming"

"Fake But Accurate" Science?
August 17th, 2006...

www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=5770

The Hockey Stick Graph

The so-called “hockey stick” graph appears in the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations organization that dominates climate change discussion. The graph purported to show that world temperatures had remained stable for almost a thousand years, but took a sudden turn upward in the last century (the blade of the hockey stick). It was the product of research into “proxy” temperature records, such as tree rings, ice cores, and coral reefs, by Michael Mann, the Joe Wilson of climate change. It can be seen here. Charles Martin took a critical look at it last March for The American Thinker.

The problem is that the world was almost certainly warmer than it is today during the “Medieval Warm Period” or “Medieval Climate Optimum” of the 9th through 14th Centuries, which was followed by the “Little Ice Age” of the 15th through 19th Centuries, whose end is the occasion for today’s global warming hysteria...



The subcommittee commissioned a study of the hockey stick headed by Edward Wegman of George Mason University, Chairman of the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Academy of Sciences, referred to dismissively as “Barton’s choice” by the article in Science. The study reached the following conclusions:

In general, we found MBH98 and MBH99 [papers by Mann] to be somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms of MM03/05a/05b [papers by McIntyre and McKitrick] to be valid and compelling.

In our further exploration of the social network of authorships in temperature reconstruction, we found that at least 43 authors have direct ties to Dr. Mann by virtue of coauthored papers with him. Our findings from this analysis suggest that authors in the area of paleoclimate studies are closely connected and thus ‘independent studies’ may not be as independent as they might appear on the surface.

It is important to note the isolation of the paleoclimate community; even though they rely heavily on statistical methods they do not seem to be interacting with the statistical community. Additionally, we judge that the sharing of research materials, data and results was haphazardly and grudgingly done. In this case we judge that there was too much reliance on peer review, which was not necessarily independent.

Overall, our committee believes that Mann’s assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his analysis.

Here is something to ponder....you know polar bears, those big, whit, fuzzy things that might eat you....well, climate models show that arctic sea ice may end up being seasonal throughout the arctic in the next number of decades. Now polar bears hibernate int the winter, come out skinny in the spring and give birth in May or so. Guess what they eat? Seals. They need seals to be able to produce and feed their young. But if the ice (40% of which has disappeared in the last 3 years or so) is no longer thick enough to support polar bears, then how will they catch seals. Maybe they can catch them by swimming? I don't think so. So the existence of polar bears is dependent on the ice's thickness in late spring.

Here's the punchline: Why are polar bears white? Might it have something to do with their being on ice in the spring to early-mid summer? They aren't white because it is useful to be white while sleeping in dens.

So how long did it take for Ursus Arctos to adapt to the arctic environment and along the way to become white. As I recall, the polar bear split something like 20 million years ago from other bears. If they were to die out then it will be warmer than anytime in the last 20 million years.

Currently climate models seem to be understating the rate of change. Don't believe climate models? Well, no use following weather forecasts because they are essentially the same thing!

So how long did it take for Ursus Arctos to adapt to the arctic environment and along the way to become white. As I recall, the polar bear split something like 20 million years ago from other bears. If they were to die out then it will be warmer than anytime in the last 20 million years.

Polar Bears live well in the city zoo's all over the world so I don't see them dieing out anytime soon. As for their food, animals seem to adapt much better then man gives them credit for. As long as people stay out of the way (don't try to feed bears), they will survive quite well on their own.

You miss the point, Jack. The point is that the cliemate will be warmer than at any time during the last 20 million years if white polar bears no longer can make a living on the arctic icecap and raise their young on seals.

You miss the point, Jack. The point is that the cliemate will be warmer than at any time during the last 20 million years if white polar bears no longer can make a living on the arctic icecap and raise their young on seals.

My point is, bears adapt and will survive.... Just because they hunt a certain way now does not mean they cannot adapt to change. The zoo thing I just threw in there to be a smart axe.

BTW, I thought the north american continent was once tropical (tropical fossils found, etc) .....do I remember this correctly, or am I crazy?

Scientists Disagree On Link Between Storms, Warming
Same Data, Different Conclusions

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, August 20, 2006; A03

A year after Hurricane Katrina and other major storms battered the U.S. coast, the question of whether hurricanes are becoming more destructive because of global warming has become perhaps the most hotly contested question in the scientific debate over climate change.

Academics have published a flurry of papers either supporting or debunking the idea that warmer temperatures linked to human activity are fueling more intense storms. The issue remains unresolved, but it has acquired a political potency that has made both sides heavily invested in the outcome.

Paradoxically, the calm hurricane season in the Atlantic so far this year has only intensified the argument.

Both sides are using identical data but coming up with conflicting conclusions. There are several reasons...



www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ar...006081900354_pf.html