Here's What I Fear

I think your "missing a clue and triggering an avalanche is often considered stupid" is probably the most telling part of your reply. That's where we differ and I'm not prepared to go the whole way and say that everybody caught in an avy is stupid or "missed a clue".

I don't think we differ that much with respect to that line, because you know, there's a first time for everything.

What I wrote was a lazy and imprecise shorthand for cases, the subset of all avalanche incidents, which clearly were the result of missing a clue. I also didn't say "were stupid", I said "considered stupid" with I think aligns with what you have been saying.

After such an incident, there is a post-hoc tendency to self-analyze and say "holy cow I missed this and that clue", but certainly there is some set where the people involved really did blow it.

I’ve never been in an avalanche incident, so my best analogous experience is still with a cave. The description below may be relevant although there are no avalanches involved.

In the worst cave flood situation I was ever involved in, we had an okay forecast, and the existing conditions were okay. Not great but okay. We went in Saturday morning and traversed a passage that included a 100’ swim through about 8 inches of air space, pretty routine stuff if you’re not worried about rain. Sunday morning we noticed that some formerly drippy domes had either more drips or small running streams, but weren’t too worried. Sunday afternoon we found that the water level in the swim had risen so that there was only 4 inches of air space. When you are swimming in a cave there is a pretty big difference between 4 inches and 8 inches of air space, and it was pretty scary. We decided to continue out, had no further problems, we were fortunate that the swim was the worst spot.

Anyway the point of all that is that I remember the extensive analysis we all did after the fact due to the somewhat close call. I still don’t think we made any objectively bad decisions, but it upgraded, at least for me, the standard of what constitutes acceptable weather for that kind of trip. When it’s dodgy, there are always other places to go.

A few years later this manifested in turning a trip around when we came to, you guessed it, low air space and a slightly dodgy forecast. That time, the objective evidence says we got it wrong – the rain did not come, and a different crew the very next day got to explore a half mile of new excellent walking passage at exactly the place where we had planned to go. So I was bummed to miss that, but of course pleased to be here to write about missing it.

Great story James, I enjoyed reading that.
Risk tolerance and ambition are  personal and we all have different fears.

For instance, there is a video just posted on TGR of a couple of TAYers skiing the North Face of Shuksan a few days ago. The conditions in the POV look hard , icy and marginal. I watched the video and although I admired their balls...the video of their skis scratching down the hardpack above huge exposure(although they looked in control) made the judgmental part of me want to scream out." what the hell were they thinking"...one slip...they are toast. Avy conditions were low, but it seemed to me to be a pretty scary thing to do given the conditions but that's partly because I hate steep , icy, fall has consequences- skiing. I'm sure the TR will get it's fair share of accolades, deservedly so and in the end I decided that it was their choice, their lives and I'm sure it was an intense experience for them that they will not forget. More power to them and I wish I had the confidence in my skill level to do it.

If I had posted something negative about their judgement or choice of conditions/weather concerning when to ski that face I'm pretty sure my comments would have been considered overly judgmental, in poor taste and in the minority and rightly so.

Which brings me back to my point, some people have a higher risk tolerance for skiing steep soft snow when the avalanche conditions are more dodgy. Of course you can ski somewhere else that day, ( they could have skied somewhere safer that day as well) but some are willing to roll the dice just like they did. You can stay at home as well and be perfectly safe.

The Shuksaners could have missed a clue and hit a big swath of blue ice and fallen to their deaths...the avy skier missed a clue and got swept away.  The Shuksaners will be lauded for their risk tolerance and skill to have got down safely, the avy skier criticized for his stupidity even if a slide did not occur.

Risk tolerance and ambition are  personal and we all have different fears.

The Shuksaners could have missed a clue and hit a big swath of blue ice and fallen to their deaths...the avy skier missed a clue and got swept away.  The Shuksaners will be lauded for their risk tolerance and skill to have got down safely, the avy skier criticized for his stupidity even if a slide did not occur.

You have identified a case where the two types of risk converge, but may still be perceived very differently. Just like in a case of higher avy risk, skiing NF in those conditions elevates risk compared to other potential times to do it. It's an excellent point.

Just a small correction...I'm not saying the avalanche risk is"part of the draw"... it's what you have to accept if you want to ski those lines...Not the reason you are attracted to those lines... semantics maybe but I  think a clarification was necessary.

Fair enough. I was trying to be provocative and stretched what you actually said.

FWIW I agree with you that the risk of skiing steep, hard snow is treated differently here than the risk of skiing steep, soft snow. Personally, I prefer conservative choices regarding both kinds of risk (and I maintain that both types of risk can be reduced to my personal tolerance by making terrain choices that still yield skiing that is satisfying to me--YMMV). I would say that the risk of falling is more straightforward to deal with b/c it is more obvious. It's possible to get in dicey avalanche situations w/o realizing the danger, but standing on top of a steep, icy slope always puts your heart in your throat (at least for me).

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Accept the fact that you will make poor decisions and mistakes every time you go out. You just don't make enough mistakes or large enough mistakes to have a serous incident (this gets back to Lowell's comment about series of mistakes (Many accidents are not the result of a single misfortune, but instead are the end result of a chain of mistakes.

C) Recognize the role of chance, luck, chaos, whatever you call it and that there is ALWAYS a level of UNCERTAINTY, no matter how good you think you are (or actually are).

There will never be a day in backcountry skiing where there is no risk involved. I mean the margin for error in the backcountry is so small. I mean one poor drop in and you don't quite make it, one overlooked piece of terrain and your buried in 10ft of snow, the one wrong decision to keep going up when you should go down, I mean these risks we take are all around us. As long as we are fine with the risks and are aware of them. The only thing that we can do is take all the necessary precautions and keep it in mind.