Here's What I Fear

Here’s one of the classic backcountry circumstances that I that tend to fear:

Situation:
A Bluebird day.
Clear as a bell; crisp, cold and a foot or more of light, faceshooting, delectable freshies.
“We’re going to have a rauckin’ good day today!”
It’s early in the season so most of the skinners have not had a chance to check out the snowpack.
But what the hey; we’ll check it out later. First less us track out that lower angle stuff before everyone else get to it.
Wow. That didn’t take long.
Over here’s just a bit steeper and we’ll be able to a bit more speed. Yeah; That’s the ticket!.
Rock on.
Check this over here; Yes!
And… then… oh my God… another Dozen More Turns situation.  No. No, no, no.

So here is what I would like to brainstorm:
I can we allow something like this happen… how, after hours, with some, days or even months and years of study and practice; how can we possibly, after knowing exactly how it happens; how can we allow this to happen?
How does this happen?
And what we can do to reduce the chance of it happen to us?

How can we get ourselves to make better decisions that will help us steer away from Danger’s door in the backcountry?


[size=8pt](Edit to restate and clarify the question.)[/size]

Not to worry, Ron. Gaia protects the ignorant. I can't believe the lines I've seen skied even when NWAC said avoid travel in the bc. Around here it is, simply, the odds are no matter what you do/what you ski, it will be o.k. But, of course, we old geezers get more conservative with age (until Alzheimers sets in and we say f@ck it), and less likely to ski prime lines when even avalanche danger is below zero LOL

This is a good subject RonJ!

Here's something I wrote in another thread:

"Why does anyone ignore signs of instability?

Accident formation is a complex phenomenon that arises from the interaction of other complex phenomena. Maybe it starts when you fail to plan a backcountry ski outing because your boss asks you to work late. Maybe it starts when you follow someone else's skin track, unaware that they were overheating and that the shaded route they chose is above a parcel of buried surface hoar. Maybe it starts when you treat a hangover with three 15 minute water breaks and end up descending snow that's been overcooked for 45 minutes.

The chains of cause and effect are so intricate that it's incredibly difficult to actually know what went wrong, and it's rarely one specific thing. We look at accident reports and see what we think are obvious bad choices, but it's hard to know exactly how the party arrived at that point, and it's really hard to know if the patterns we "think" we see are real or if we're just seeing what we want to see. We forget to acknowledge how often we ourselves break the rules and get away it anyway.

Best practises have been established to counter this murkiness, but it's incredibly important to realise that best practises are based on patterns, which are a form of generalisation, and that generalisations must be combined with knowledge about the situation at-hand in order to make safe decisions. You can easily be killed by breaking any of the general rules in Best Practises for Backcountry Skiing, but it's just as easy to be killed by breaking a rule that isn't in the book, or by the collision of factors that the rulebook never anticipated."

***

Here's what I usually do ( except for, as above, where like everyone else, I break the rules and get away with it ):

1. Follow the rules.
2. Employ an extra margin of safety.
3. Make conservative decisions.

Does not protect against "black swan events".

Discuss avys on every tour and try to relate to what you are seeing in terrain, weather, and human factors.

This is key: poke, prod, and palaver on the way up. Staying near someone to chat about conditions, and going at a pace where you can observe and chat, creates a tone where information is noticed and shared. Just yesterday our talk led us to dig a pit and do some quick tests, even though the hazard was moderate to low. That gave us enough info to safely ski a new slope.
Also, following safe descent protocol should be a habit, not condition-dependent: observe each other, leapfrog to islands of safety, stop above rollovers to chat more, etc. It's fun to stay together, makes for better photos, and some of us need to rest anyhow....

And the answer is : Dynamite the slope. Or go ski a controled, groomed run.

Also, following safe descent protocol should be a habit, not condition-dependent:  observe each other, leapfrog to islands of safety, stop above rollovers to chat more, etc.  It's fun to stay together, makes for better photos, and some of us need to rest anyhow....

Well said -- even if decisions on the way up led to "it's safe to ski here" keep your cerebral cortex functioning on the way down -- especially, know where each other are.