Updates??- 2 climbers, 2 campers overdue...Rainier

Amar, I would also point out that the Mt. Rainier Rec Forecast is on the MRNP telephone answering machine (roads & weather); is posted at the Nisqually Entrance, and must also be available (I hope, but do not know) at Longmire where (I, at least, in the past, got my camping permit).

Yes Amar, thanks for this. It was interesting to hear your points on wind, and ground blizzards. I've said for as long as I can remember that wind is my least favorite element.

I agree with Amar about the winds above timberline at Rainier and with those who suggested that the 'destination' nature of the climbs was a factor.  It seems that many experienced climbers from California & the Rockies underestimate this mountain, having climbed to similar elevations in their home ranges.  Climatically, Rainier would almost be like a 20,000 foot summit in those locations, since it rises about 8000 feet above treeline, twice as much as they're used to.

The different physical geography of volcanos may be a factor also.  Many small ridges merge, sometimes subtly, on the ascent and the wrong one can easily be chosen when descending, even in fair weather.

The many past similar accidents on the Muir snowfield have often resulted in the victims being wind-driven east of their intended route onto Paradise Glacier and into the Cowlitz drainages.  (This is one of several cases where Rainier glaciers don't feed the streams with the same name).  I recall a guy separated from his winter party near Muir in the 70's who knocked on the Ohanapecosh ranger's door twelve days later. 

^^^^Hopefully that is what will happen in this case...maybe wander in somewhere at some point. Not likely, but possible.

Ugh, I hadn't heard it called a ground blizzard before but the whiteouts in that type of condition and particularly on Rainier are really something. I recall stopping in one of those and then being disoriented enough to push off uphill and fall. I literally lost track of which way down hill was in the time we had stopped to chat about how bad viability had become. If I remember right we actually backtracked up to find our uphill tracks again in order to follow them on our way back down (a skill that has saved me on more than on occasion). Luckily it hadn't filled in yet. In the spot we were I think the concern was that we might accidentally head into the Nisqually. If retreating from Muir and not familiar with the route I could see that following a downhill route of least resistance in that kind of disorientated state could place you in some bad terrain.

The single most important weather-related thing that I've learned over the course of 15 years of ski mountaineering, with well over 100 summits of Cascade volcanoes and well over 100 trips to Camp Muir, is that the wind is everything, often really the only thing that matters, high above treeline. It is what can most quickly buildup and ruin your day and endanger your life, even on an otherwise sunny and nice day. I've learned to avoid ascending into any forecast of high winds on Rainier or other isolated volcanoes which always magnify windy conditions.

I'm wondering at what speed winds would you consider aborting a trip, also considering the predicted values are averages?