Updates??- 2 climbers, 2 campers overdue...Rainier

Can anyone find a weather forecast for the 12th through the 16th?  I would like to know what the parties were reading before they headed up.  What did they interpret incorrectly?  Mark Vucich is reported as a guide in training.  If that is true it makes it all the more bizarre.  The other two that planned on summiting that weekend! 

Well, here are the relevant forecasts.

The Rainier forecast as of January 13 which was available to the two campers (who apparently parked their car at Paradise at 10am on January 13 and intended to return by January 15) and the two climbers also:
[tt]
MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST FRI JAN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE PARK SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION LOWERS THE
SNOW LEVEL TO BELOW 500 FEET. COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOWLAND SNOW AT TIMES. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL 6500 FEET.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL 7000 FEET.
.SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                        FRI    FRI    SAT    SAT    SUN 
                             NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)      8      6     -2    -24    -26
                       W 48   W 71   W 91   W 48   W 30

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)     24     23      5     -4     -4
                       W 30   W 57   W 52   W 40   W 25

PARADISE  (5420 FT)     43     29     35     19     22
                       W  4   W 11  SW 17  SW 10  SW  8

LONGMIRE  (2700 FT)     41     31     36     23     26
                       W  2  NW  8  SW 14  SW 10  SW  8

++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
    LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL
2000 FEET.
[/tt]


The Rainier forecast as of January 14 which may have been available to the two climbers, who intended to return by January 16:
[tt]
MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
425 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A COOL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

.SATURDAY...SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING.
SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                        SAT    SAT    SUN    SUN    MON 
                             NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)     -1    -24    -26    -25    -21
                      W 100   W 60   W 40  NW 45   W 70

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      5     -4     -4     -7     -3
                       W 75   W 45   W 35   W 45   W 60

PARADISE  (5420 FT)     29     15     21     10     19
                       W 15  SW 10   W  5   W  5   W 10

LONGMIRE  (2700 FT)     31     19     24     17     23
                       CALM   CALM   CALM   CALM   CALM

++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
++ TEMPERATURES FOR PARADISE AND LONGMIRE ARE THE EXPECTED HIGHS AND
    LOWS. WIND IS THE AVERAGE WIND EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL
3000 FEET.
[/tt]

Given the forecasts it is very hard to avoid being judgmental, there is little room to incorrectly interpret anything. It appears to be an unreasonable decision to begin a multiday Rainier summit attempt under these forecast conditions of wind and temperature at 14000 ft on Sunday-Monday, or choose to go "snow camping" for 3 days on the Muir Snowfield given the 10000 ft forecast for Saturday-Sunday.

That's assuming that they looked at the Rainier forecast at all -- but who knows if they relied only on TV weather, or perhaps the NWS point forecasts (which are often highly erroneous for mountainous areas, since they are not intended or designed as a mountain forecast, and generally grossly under-forecast the winds and over-forecast the snowfall). But all forecasts from all sources, TV or otherwise, were very poor and heading farther downhill fast, with an extended period of stormy weather starting on January 14 and continuing for many days. Both parties apparently chose to ascend into extremely dangerous incoming weather which was predicted to worsen throughout the duration of their trips.

This happens and has happened all too frequently with parties who fly to Rainier from distant locations (for these parties San Diego, Atlanta, and Korea). Apparently the money already invested in plane tickets, plus vacation time and other preparation, affects the judgment and risk tolerance of some of these parties, leading them to ascend into much riskier weather forecasts than local parties would -- this is simply an observational truth based on many previous incidents at Rainier and Hood. Locals make the same mistake too, but those who fly here make it much more often.

It is really sad that these four remain missing and are now presumed dead. But just because it's so sad, doesn't mean that both parties are without fault and are beyond criticism. They exhibited some very poor judgment in choosing to embark on their trips at all when they did, and have apparently paid the ultimate price for that. As usual, their decisions have led to large numbers of search-and-rescue personnel putting themselves in considerable danger in miserable weather conditions trying to find and save them. Really unfortunate that this harsh lesson had to be delivered by the Mountain once again, a lesson to be heeded by everyone going up there, and one which I hope I've learned from my own past mistakes and those of others.


[size=small]Edited to rephrase the first paragraph of my comments, per the discussion later on in this thread.[/size]

I remember reading that forecast for the 14th and calculating which wind chill was worst on the summit, 100mph winds and -1F or 60mph and -24F. The 100mph didn't compute on some scales as the max was 60mph! I can onlty imagine how the families feel not knowing any further details.

Thank you Amar

My biggest fear climbing and skiing in the mountains is not injury, maiming, or death. It's the eventual thread that calls me out on my poor judgment. That and the negative comments on the King 5 website bitching about how much I cost Joe and Jane Fatrolls in my rescue effort.

As alpinists, we're all aware of the risks, and from time to time we push the envelope and the mountains put the smackdown on us. If we make it out, we're lauded for keeping our head together, finding solutions that led to our survival. But we all know that it could have gone the other way, inspiring the inevitable armchairing. I've been guilty of second-guessing victims online or amongst friends, so I try to be conscious of keeping it to myself.

Poor judgment or not, take from this event what you will. As competent mountaineers, we can individually look at the elements that led to this tragic accident and come to our own conclusion without calling the deceased out publicly.

Very well said Ryan and jwplotz.

My biggest fear climbing and skiing in the mountains is not injury, maiming, or death.  It's the eventual thread that calls me out on my poor judgment.  That and the negative comments on the King 5 website bitching about how much I cost Joe and Jane Fatrolls in my rescue effort.

As alpinists, we're all aware of the risks, and from time to time we push the envelope and the mountains put the smackdown on us.  If we make it out, we're lauded for keeping our head together, finding solutions that led to our survival.  But we all know that it could have gone the other way, inspiring the inevitable armchairing.  I've been guilty of second-guessing victims online or amongst friends, so I try to be conscious of keeping it to myself. 

Poor judgment or not, take from this event what you will.  As competent mountaineers, we can individually look at the elements that led to this tragic accident and come to our own conclusion without calling the deceased out publicly.

Sorry, John, but I disagree with most of what you've written here.

If, as is perhaps likely, I someday become incapacitated or meet my end in the mountains due to accident, happenstance, and/or my own poor judgment, then I'd welcome well-considered discussion and criticism of my actions, whether I'm alive or dead. I have no fear whatsoever of that -- although invariably and unfortunately, some large fraction of the discussion and criticism (especially in comments on news website stories) may be totally erroneous and not well-considered at all, largely made by those with no concept of what mountaineering or climbing involves. But analysis and criticism of my actions from those with knowledge and experience in my chosen activities (skiing, mountaineering, whatever) is not something that I would fear or avoid. If I live through whatever that future situation may be, I'd probably be the first to turn the glaring light of criticism towards my own actions, most likely in a public forum as with the TR you link to.

I've also never understood why some people think that those who die should suddenly become immune to criticism or negative comment after their passing. I have many faults -- and they won't instantly and retroactively disappear once I die (although hopefully I'll continue to work on improving those areas while I'm still alive) -- so I wouldn't want any rosy false picture presented of me or my actions afterwards.

I knew while I was writing my post above (everything after merely copying the Rainier forecasts) that some would find what I wrote too judgmental, especially since I've come close to meeting my end in the mountains more than once already. But there are lessons in what happened to the 4 who are missing on Rainier that need to be pointed out, because clearly these lessons are not obvious to everybody, even those of us who may be alpinists or competent mountaineers and may be aware of the risks.

If even one person takes it to heart to not ascend into a very poor, downward-trending forecast on Rainier and lives because of that, then the criticism and comments above will have served a positive purpose. Or if even one person properly uses the NWS Mount Rainier recreational forecast (with an accurate picture of high winds) instead of the ridiculous and inaccurate NWS point forecasts (which always have mountain winds which are too low), and thus saves their own life instead of climbing into a predictable disaster, then the comments above will have also served a positive purpose.

Refraining from well-considered analysis and criticism of an incident serves no constructive purpose, and is just hiding our heads in the sand.