***Avys this Weekend***

That slope is so huge, but is so dwarfed by the mega-hugeness of Rainier, that it is hard for photos to capture it. You are right it does not seem that steep. It just sits there facing almost due east above the big solar reflector oven that is the Paradise glacier flats. I guess it must wind load from prevailing westerlies, again just stating the obvious. Thanks to everyone for posting the pics.

dkoelle makes good points about the difficulty judging scale in this large valley, and about the "reflector oven" effect, but the detached lower flat section of Paradise Glacier as shown on the topos no longer exists.  For at least the past twenty years the glacier terminus has been at about 7300' west of 'Cowlitz Saddle' (NW of Cowlitz Rock).  The vanished portion formerly containing the famous ice caves was no doubt largely maintained by frequent avalanches from the 'Muir Wall' to the west.

Saturday's avy slope is relatively modest in size & steepness, but it would be difficult for a skier to "glide" onto it, as it's topped by very long, large cornices every winter.  It would be easy to fall off them in a whiteout, tho...almost done that myself a couple times.

I did do just that one winter while "practicing" compass work with my wife. It was also foggy and couldn't see the pole plant in front of you. She said (along with a few other words) that I was there one second and gone the next. luckily after falling some 20-30 ft I landed in deep snow and was able to move along under the cornices to their end and crawl up and out. Another one of those great "learning experiences" like Gary's on the Nisqually last Friday .

Boot , not as embarassing as dropping through a cornice and landing at the feet of fellow tourers after being warned to follow the leader. As you say " a learning experience "

I was looking to find the Muir telemetry that I saw last week that had wind speeds at 140MPH and averaging, if I remember, in the 120's for 3 hours with big precip. That could have done some serious leeward loading?

OLYMPICS-
WEST SLOPES NORTH CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
NORTH OREGON CASCADES-

1040 AM PDT MON MAY 04 2009

... SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER EXPECTED IN THE
OLYMPICS...WASHINGTON CASCADES AND MT HOOD AREA LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...

A SERIES OF UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK SHOULD
CREATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE AVALANCHE DANGER IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 4 TO 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH AND ABOUT
5 TO 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF SUBSTANTIAL NEW
SNOWFALL AND STRONG TO VERY STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE TO HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH THROUGH
EAST EXPOSURES WHERE GREATEST WIND TRANSPORT IS LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THESE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AND
TRAVELERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE TRAVEL PLANS UNTIL THE
ANTICIPATED NEW SNOW HAS HAD A CHANCE TO EITHER SLIDE OR TO SETTLE
AND STABILIZE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

PLEASE VISIT WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS.

$$