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Have NWAC ratings been reduced?

  • haggis
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10 years 1 month ago #225431 by haggis
Have NWAC ratings been reduced? was created by haggis
So I'm curious.  NWAC is reporting considerable across the board on 23rd and 24th Dec with all of this new snow, and its a crap load as we know.  Light with denser snow falling at the pass now.  Crystal was pretty light yesterday and cold so not counting that area.  Contradicting this we have the list below.

1 - The I90 pass is closed for avalanche danger, collision removal etc.
2 - Stevens pass is closed for avalanche control
3 - SAR are not searching for Monte Busby due to avalanche hazard.

In years gone by something of this scale would certainly have been on the High rating.  I can only recall extreme being a big snowfall followed immediately by a rain event.

Has NWAC reduced the High rating to considerable?

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  • joecat2
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10 years 1 month ago #225433 by joecat2
Replied by joecat2 on topic Re: Have NWAC ratings been reduced?
From being out there I think the NWAC ratings are on target or some days have been a bit overstated recently. What is unusual up to yesterday there has been very little wind relative to the amount of snowfall. Thus less slabbiness and hazard. Maybe the DOT has a simple formula based on snowfall amount, not the NWAC hazard rating. The 23rd seemed to be windier than most of the last week. It is hard to know at Snoqualmie with the Alpental wind gauge out for about a year and the Keechulus gauge, which is less relevant, does not work in west winds.

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  • haggis
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10 years 1 month ago #225434 by haggis
Replied by haggis on topic Re: Have NWAC ratings been reduced?
The winds have been fairly light with the recent snow around Stevens pass. Without the benefit of the telemetry or ski area reports at Snoq pass its fair to assume similar there. Crystal did have reasonable gusts over 50mph which is a lot but it was getting hammered by skiers yesterday and I saw or heard of nothing odd in the ski area, steep slopes I was on were stable. This would indicate a rating consistent with the NWAC one so maybe its the other authorities that are looking at different metrics as you say.

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  • Blizz Mountain
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10 years 1 month ago #225440 by Blizz Mountain
Replied by Blizz Mountain on topic Re: Have NWAC ratings been reduced?
haggis... I was thinking along the same lines as you... seemed like conditions have been a bit more dangerous than 'considerable'. A few days ago I saw a lot of small natural new soft snow slides on steeper microfeatures as well as all the other news out there - several unconsolidated tree well incidents and deaths in the west the past few weeks also. I am by no means an expert in snow science or avy conditions - so not to contradict the experts or those with more experience... just a gut feeling that it's a bit worse.

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  • Jim Oker
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10 years 1 month ago #225448 by Jim Oker
Replied by Jim Oker on topic Re: Have NWAC ratings been reduced?
I assume the ratings address the chance of avalanches and not the potential size if avalanches do occur - is that true? With what I've seen while out there (as of Tuesday, before travelling east in time to miss more heaps of snow), what scares me is more the sheer depth of snow before the last solid layer, versus the touchiness of the recent snow. With so much snow hanging above the highways, of course DOT wants to bring down what they can, regardless of the probability of natural slides.

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  • Micah
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10 years 1 month ago #225449 by Micah
Replied by Micah on topic Re: Have NWAC ratings been reduced?

I assume the ratings address the chance of avalanches and not the potential size if avalanches do occur - is that true?



From the description of the danger scale at nwac.us:
The danger is a combination of the expected likelihood, size, and distribution of avalanches.

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