How unusual is the current low PNW snowpack?

There have been a lot of winters that have been saved by about three weeks of intensive snowfalls. That has been a situation for some time now. The one recent year where that didn't happen was 2004-2005 with very low snowpacks throughout. Even in bad winters, which this one currently looks like, the long wave pattern usually changes between about mid-February and early March when low pressure tends to form and persist over the Queen Charlottes.

The CPC www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictio.../seasonal.php?lead=5 still shows equal chances for precipitation each month through mid-late spring but also shows below normal temperatures for essentially the whole of that period over the Northwest. That implies a ridge west of the region with precipitation occurring when the ridge of high pressure either flattens or the axis moves sufficiently offshore to allow for toughing along the coast. Long term forecasts (you can read about the methodology on the CPC website) are based primarily on climatology, recent weather patterns and sea surface temperature forecasts.

That said I don't feel overly confident about snowpack and conditions until mid-late winter. But three weeks of snowfall could once again change much of that.

that is what i have been telling myself, amar.
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All it would take is one good storm cycle in the next few weeks and everyone will start talking about a global ice age, the dawn of a new golden age of low elevation snow pack, skiing lines that "never form this early", etc, etc.

I kid, but seriously. One good damp maritime snowfall of 20-30" or so on the crest and I think any coverage issues we're having will be forgotten.

One other interesting weather anomaly. I live in Plain and work in Leavenworth. Sunday in Plain it warmed up to 55 degrees and melted basically all the snow in the Plain/Lake Wenatchee area. Save for some shaded areas where peoples roofs shed snow, it looks like spring. I was expecting the same in Leavenworth, but to my surprise Leavenworth still is white with snow on the trees and no loss of snow pack. For a frame of reference, Plain is nearly 1000 ft higher and gets nearly double the amount of snow.

Question is, what caused this? Inversion layer or protective Bavarian snow voodoo magic net cast by the Leavenworth Chamber of Commerce over Christmas Town??? Tin foil hat stuff here people.

We sure would benefit if the high pressure would move along and return a more typical pattern. I'm just watching the Aleutian chain area / north mid pacific and hoping to see some tight, developed lows form with a shift in the aloft air. Three or four of those rolling in will change the game. Making lemonade when ya get lemons? The retail market gets nervous by mid January if this goes on til then.

Question is, what caused this? Inversion layer or protective Bavarian snow voodoo magic net cast by the Leavenworth Chamber of Commerce over Christmas Town??? Tin foil hat stuff here people.

Very unscientificaly, I would posit that the cool easterly flow and inversions have saved the snow in 11worth, while the elevation and relatively deeper snowpack has kept the snow as you move up to the pass. Definitely a strange effect indeed.


Also, even though pass level snowpack is low I'm guessing higher elevation snowpack is at least near average. We've had some strong precipitation events; unfortunately its been pretty warm during a lot of it.

Single malt and a new pair of trail running shoes...