How's the local snowpack going to play this year?

www.ncmountainguides.com/2013/11/30/faceting-above-crusts/

Good post, Jeff.

Even if the new snow bonds well to the old snow as the temperature falls, the sustained very cold temperatures next week could create weak layers that persist for some time.

I think it's worth pointing out that a 'pwl' is a

persistent
weak
layer.

Thanks, really informative

Thanks Jeff, good observation!. The extended cold and days of low precipitation give cause to watch what takes shape like you point out. Unusual to see fairly persistent highs in November / early December.

Seems like the key factor will be how the cooling and precipitation overlap (or don't overlap).

If the temperature falls gradually and it continues to snow quite a bit after it cools, then you could get a nice right-side-up snowpack with (perhaps) not too much faceting over time.

On the other hand, if the temperature plummets and we get just a little additional snow over a freezing rain crust (followed by days of clear, cold weather), it seems like that could produce a really bad layer, when it's covered by more snow.

Interestingly, it seems to me that we could end up with both situations, only at different elevations. The first scenario at high elevations, and the second scenario at lower elevations.

But I'm just thinking out loud. It would be interesting to get the opinion of folks who actually know what they're talking about.   

I think you are right, Lowell. When the next storm comes in around around December 10th it is likely to be unstable as it begins to snow. After the main front goes through it depends on just how warm it gets. There is likely to be an elevation above which it will be unstable for a period of time.

This seems to be a repeating pattern this year. A storm then a prolonged period of clearing. We just missed two arctic fronts in the past three weeks or so as the cold air slid by to the east of us. Instead we just got big ridges of high pressure. In general this is not a good pattern for stability as there are weak layers and all layers become quite distinct.