La Nina Replay Possible per Cliff Mass

I have reverse SAD (seasonal affective disorder) and I smile when it is both cold AND rainy during the Seattle winter.

My quirk is that dislike hot weather. I hate it when the TV weather guys talk about temperatures in the high 80s and 90s like it's a good thing. This summer has been wonderful--cool cloudy mornings, mild sunny afternoons. Just perfect weather.

Cliff also reported in late January 2011 that we shouldn't expect much additional snow.  So, I'll believe it when I ski it.

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Wait, you're saying long term forecasts shouldn't be fully trusted?

you can find info at Natl wthr service - ENSO

My quirk is that dislike hot weather. I hate it when the TV weather guys talk about temperatures in the high 80s and 90s like it's a good thing. This summer has been wonderful--cool cloudy mornings, mild sunny afternoons. Just perfect weather.

Agreed.  I grew up in southern New England and when I was younger I could take the heat and humidity.  I don't like it now. Soaking my shirt with sweat is not pleasant. Nothing better than a sunny day in the low 70s and a breeze.  Almost feels like the air can quench your thirst.

Alan

i'm not a weather expert.  but i try to pay attention.  and i like to play.

The ENSO discussion , being what it is, leads to a forecast.  The model in play at NWS ( experimental ), as of Aug 18,  suggests some fair probability of cooler than normal for December through May (gotta beat 15 out of 30 years..), and also suggests a wetter than average likelihood for September through March (ditto).

keep it down, please,  some of us are trying to work..

I hate to point this out, because I'm frequently referred to as the unrealistic optimist in my group of friends, but during a large portion of last winter (roughly between the second week of January-February) in the PNW it was 38 degrees and raining at 5k. At Stevens we had no less than 4 major rain events in January, some bringing double digits of precipitation. This during one of the coldest La Nina episodes in recent history.

Granted, March and April brought us up above average and the ski mountaineering has been fantastic. It seems that during the past 4-5 years we've had the following cycle: big, cold dumps in December followed by high pressure near the holidays; fluctuating freezing levels and near misses with systems in January and February (which sometimes manifest as rain, sometimes as the Ice Age, depends on what micro-climate you are in); then prodigious dumps in March and April. Most of the Washington ski areas have closed sometime in April with their biggest base of the season.

The most consistent season I remember in the past 5 years was 07-08, where I don't think I had to work through a single rain event, Stevens finished the year with over 550", and we had sea-surface temperature anomalies identical to those of last winter. Just goes to show that these are after all forecasts, and subject to vast imperfections.

All that being said, I'm pretty much (as usual) counting on a phat winter, and psyched to see that at least we're headed for another La Nina instead of La Nada.