Mt. Adams SW chutes conditions

Micah and Allyson: Amazing picture! Thanks for sharing.
Alexander: if you have any photos please share...

Most likely I will not be able to go this weekend, so I am looking forward to TRs.

Here we go ...

I put the photo above at home.comcast.net/~mprange90/Adams_Rainier_June_12_2010.jpg .

Wow! my new desktop, replacing the snow leopard. thank-you to Allyson!

lets renue this one. Any thoughts on SW Chutes conditions for this weekend? Any chance to ski nice safe corn in there? I talked to a ranger who said they had 1ft of new a week ago and am trying to determine the impact on avy conditions, especially in the chutes. Do they need more time?

www.accuweather.com/us/wa/trout%2Dlake/9...orecast-weekends.asp

Oh the joy of weather forecasts in the PNW....NWS's pinpoint, while sometimes flawed, is quite different than your AccuWeather forecast....enough different to make me think something is fishy

forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46...&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en

Here's the forecast for Rainier ,  I wouldn't trust the pinpoint from nws since it's pretty much just direct modeling results.  The forecast discussion by the nws typically describes what they actually know and don't know. 

And always revelant to our PNW weather forecasts is a discussion on known knowns and unknown unknowns    

I wouldn't trust the pinpoint from nws since it's pretty much just direct modeling results.  The forecast discussion by the nws typically describes what they actually know and don't know. 

The pinpoint actually does take in account the "grids" to which the meteorologists at NOAA tune the forecasts.  But the grids are forecast for the lowlands, rather than the mountains, so are not suitable for saying much about the mountain weather.  Best to use the recreational forecasts for the South Cascades, linked to the weather page at TAY..maybe split the difference between the east slopes/west slopes, since Adams is pretty far east.  Amar, as always, has a good discussion about this.

The other thing that often accounts for differences in the products is that there is a lag in NOAAs updating of the forecasts and the most recent model output.  You can access direct output of a model that is tailored for the PNW at the UW atmospheric science page.  Right now, my reading of it is that the trough that was supposed to cross western washington later Saturday end up to our north.  It may be mostly sunny Saturday in the S cascades on Saturday, some clouds building in the early morning Sunday, but dissipating later in the day.  Adams could be fairly do-able weatherwise on Saturday.  As far as avy conditions go, I would think that your primary worry would be wet snow avalanches, since it was warm and sunny there yesterday, and trout lake is already 80 degrees today.