Who is sticking the Ullr voodoo doll with pins??

What ???
But I just got an e-mail a few days ago from the Friends of the NW Avy Center saying, "good news, long range forecast show a La Nina  trend developing for the PNW " that I forwarded to my friends to cheer them up.


Is there that much disparity between different long range forecasters. ???
or maybe I didn't understand what it was saying?

What ???
But I just got an e-mail a few days ago from the Friends of the NW Avy Center saying, "good news, long range forecast show a La Nina  trend developing for the PNW " that I forwarded to my friends to cheer them up.


Is there that much disparity between different long range forecasters. ???
or maybe I didn't understand what it was saying?

Yes, I've heard that La Nina is making a comeback. Ed Berry earlier stated that to be the case.

Here is the link: www.izotz.com/dweebreport/

COMMENTS FROM ED'S NEW DISCUSSION:


THE MAIN REASON THE DWEEBS BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMINESS IS BASED UPON THE LATEST DISCUSSION IN WHICH INTER-SEASONAL FORECASTER ED BERRY DISCUSSES BOTH HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WHICH IS NOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...RETROGRADING WESTWARD AND THE "FIXED POSITIONING OF STRONG TROPICAL CONVECTION" BETWEEN 130E AND 140E OR IN THE OCTANT 5 OF WHEELER AND HEDONS PHASE SPACE. CURRENTLY, PROJECTIONS OF GREATER THEN 2 SIGMA WITHOUT ENSO AND APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF NORMAL. THAT IS A VERY STRONG AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF INTENSE OF TROPICAL RAINFALL! THE RWD OFF THAT AREA IS EFFECTING THE MID LATITUDE LONG WAVE, WAVE TRAIN AND DOWN STREAM. AS THE CURRENT NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCK RETROGRADES....MORE AND MORE ENERGY WILL BE CONCENTRATED UPSTREAM WITHIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROF.

If you understand all of this congratulations on your Phd.

I don't think that all La Nina events play out the same way - or perhaps it matters at what phase and strength of a La Nina event we are in - early, middle, late. Clearly, there are a lot of other factors that influence the pattern.

Ten day GFS forecasts have almost universally looked promising all winter long but by the time the 10 day forecasts come to fruition the weather systems have just been a lot weaker or have gone elsewhere this bizarre winter.

Sounds like there are as yet indeterminate changes afoot - hope they are long lasting....

From Howard Shekter for Mammoth:

I THINK THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE PRETTY EXCITING FROM A METEOROLOGY POINT OF VIEW. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SOME YEARS...WE ARE BEING SET UP WITH A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROF AT 140W THAT WILL BECOME DEEPLY POSITIVELY TILT AND WILL TAP A RICH SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITZ. THIS "MARGARITA CONNECTION" COULD PUT A GOOD DENT IN OUR DROUGHT SITUATION NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF SHORE FOR ABOUT 5 DAYS THEN KICKING INLAND. AFTERWORDS.....THERE WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF ENERGY FROM SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS...AS THEY RELOAD THE LONG WAVE. THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC THE NEXT 14 DAYS!

SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE A LOT HIGHER WITH THIS PATTERN AND SNOW TO H20 RATIOS A LOT LOWER. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL, IF IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW IN TOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS THE UPPER LOW COMES IN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY INTO NORTHERN CA. THE CENTRAL SIERRA COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

Canadian avalanche forecasters also speak of changes next week with the possibility of either a Pineapple Express or the clash of a Pineapple Express and an arctic air mass. The latter could be a big snow maker.

Let's keep our fingers crossed on getting some more snow before it warms too much in the late March period.

I, too, find myself wishing I could understand relevant weather issues and synopses better, especially given that modeling as not an exact science. While I enjoy sifting through NOAA offerings and archives, and layer that with NWAC info, I note that there is quite a bit of other interpretation out there, apparently much of it oriented toward, well, dweebs.

If there was somebody out there capable and willing to lead off a thread aimed at weather issues and prognostication, perhaps something like the consolidation of the avalanche discussion thread, I suspect I would be eager to follow it.. Thanks.

I'm a Dweeb, myself, although I've had a real weather interest since I was about ten. With lot's of practice and help at interpretation from a string of friends that got advanced degrees in Atmos. sciences (and skiing) and with the help of current ski partner Bryan Scott, I can understand most of this stuff. But some of it is well beyond me.

Just re-upped the tithe to the snow gods at www.avalanchenw.org . Perhaps if a ton of folk do it, Ullr will smile and grace us with the goods. Even if he doesn't, it'll still support the very useful services that NWAC provides. Thanks NWAC!