Goodbye Paradise?

It's very fortunate that we escaped major damage to the road between the entrance and Longmire this time. Here are links to the two stories:

Mount Rainier: Flood damage closes road to Paradise:  www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/589360.html
Pics of the week: Damage on road to Paradise:  blogs.thenewstribune.com/adventure/2009/..._on_road_to_paradise

I assume that the Park won't even consider opening the road beyond Longmire, say to the huge parking lot just before Nisqually Bridge or to Comet Falls TH.  Either one would allow decent backcountry ski access to the Nisqually Glacier or Van Trump areas during the upcoming week of predicted sunny weather.  But probably not gonna happen.

And assuming the photos are taken by NPS personnel and thus public domain, I'll post them here:

Holy guacamole!  USGS just updated the projected curve to show a new record at 13.3...

Luckily, the projections of a record flood (or at least a record crest, which is not necessarily the same thing) did not come true this time.  Here's a series of plots which I saved from this page ( ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?...sw1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1 ) during the course of the storm.  The early prediction of 13.29 ft was decreased to 12.99 as the storm progressed, but both were well above the actual crest of 12.68 ft:

Thanks for the graphs & photos, Amar!  If that's just above the bridge as I suspect, I'd guess the river undermined the saturated & snow-laden slope.  I've heard speculation that the cause was an avalanche, but it looks like a landslide to me.

I assume that the Park won't even consider opening the road beyond Longmire, say to the huge parking lot just before Nisqually Bridge or to Comet Falls TH.  Either one would allow decent backcountry ski access to the Nisqually Glacier or Van Trump areas during the upcoming week of predicted sunny weather.  But probably not gonna happen.

I'm guessing the repairs will take weeks.  Based on my long experience with the Park, I sadly have to agree with your assessment.  Many years ago, they used to partially open the road each (or most) winter days as the large turnouts such as Cougar Rock, Glacier Bridge, Narada, and lower Paradise lot were cleared.  This practice ended because of concerns about "safety", especially at Glacier Bridge and Narada, where 'gumbies' could easily get in trouble.   This is partially to blame for the pathetic slower openings I've ranted on about in previous posts.  More than once, I've heard the Park's excuse that 'We have to manage for the lowest common denominator'.  Apparently, they've never been to Banff or Jasper Parks in the winter, where the Parks Canada staff seem able to assess the individual and tailor their message accordingly.  Sometimes I wonder if it isn't some of Mt. Rainier's management that's the real lowest common denominator...

Still, it seems as though some access could be arranged if the Park was willing to make more of an effort.  A lot a casual snowplayers could be diverted to tube on the water tank access road behind the Longmire community building, which has restrooms and could be used as a warming hut.  There is the problem of limited parking at Glacier Bridge, but it seems as though that could be addressed by carpooling and just counting vehicles on weekdays and by shuttles on the weekend. They'd also need portapotties and staff there to counsel the rookies. Probably tho, this lot will be needed as a staging area for the repair.  

I'd also suggest closing the Comet Falls trail, which I consider the most dangerous forest trail on this side of the Park. This is especially true for those extensive slide paths that end in the creek gorge, when they're icy or on warm afternoons.  I prefer to reach Van Trump by climbing up just before Tato Falls, then following the morraines toward 'Dream Bowl' & Van Trump.  It's true this route has more normally lee slopes, but that seems to me easier to assess than how warm the afternoon is going to get on the Comet Falls trail.  Maybe Ron J would be willing to post one of his fine maps showing my route?  One could also follow upper Rampart ridge to Van Trump, but this is a pretty long day-trip from Longmire, especially for me.  There's also Prater's old snowshoe route that stays on the south side of the creek & switchbacks directly up toward Mildred Point from the Comet Falls trailhead. 

I'm not sure how it would be determined who's qualified to climb above the bridge.   Maybe the Park could re-open one lane and just shuttle the public past the road damage?  Or use temporary one-way traffic lights like the State does along Hood Canal. Surely all the talent on this website has ideas...