TAY reports and avy hazard, a heuristic trap?

Hey Scotsman -- I kinda like your signature in this context!   :

My point exactly!

The original question asks, more or less, if the trip reports, especially trip reports with lots of positive language, foster "monkey see, monkey do" behaviour, thereby compromising objective thinking.

That wasn't really my concern. It was more a question of choosing goals based on limited information. In this case, the June 12 reports were fine in describing the skiing conditions at that time. But the conditions changed a lot by the weekend, and I think you'd have to be pretty sharp to predict what happened. It's unusual for conditions to deteriorate so much this time of year during fair weather. I guess that's because it's unusual to get such a severe storm in June.

If you could have predicted what happened or detected the hazard once you were out there, then bravo to you. I don't know if I would have. Here's an email I sent on Friday morning after reading the June 12 reports. My plans did a complete turnaround that day.

Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2008 09:41:02 -0700
From: Lowell Skoog
Subject: Second thoughts...

Okay, now I'm having second thoughts. A couple of TAY postings report good snow conditions at Mt Rainier. I thought it would be mushy there. This is making me think again about the Mt Baker ski orbit. The weather sounds good for it. I'd be open to either a one or two-day trip on that one. Two days would be pretty casual. If done as a one-day trip, Sunday would work better for me. My thought was to tag Sherman Peak as a high point. Let me know if that sounds interesting or if you have knowledge of Mt Baker snow conditions.

Black Peak would still be a good alternative.

--Lowell

Maybe I'm a fool. But I'm a fool who thinks acknowledging foolishness is the first step toward becoming smarter.

Scroll to the bottom to avoid going through the mumble jumble I call my thought process...

I don't know if this goes along the same lines as what Lowell originally posted, but I for one am notorious for last minute plans.  We try to make plans about a week in advance, but when weather changes and good reports are listed from elsewhere, our plans have been known to change very last minute.  Obviously, this is using our limited information to chose our goal/destination.  Lowell, I saw your e-mail was on Friday.  I think for me the dilemma in this is trying to be well-prepared (which I think also constitutes advance planning) and making the best possible decision at that point in time (sometimes split-second decision making).  I'm not talking about advance planning such as in packing (I think everyone who has done enough trips can throw together their pack last minute if need be).  But in studying a route.  I like to go over a route over and over, even if it's easy, for similar reasons that an actor might go over and over their script.  To sum what I'm trying to say: Since sometimes current weather/forecasts or other variables call for last minute changes to our mountaineering plans, I often will use TAY as a resource to gather last minute information for a last second decision.  Although in trying to avoid these possible hazardous conditions, am I being hazardous by using TAY to gather my info for the last minute decision?  I'm being rhetorical, but feel free to criticize.

Although in trying to avoid these possible hazardous conditions, am I being hazardous by using TAY to gather my info for the last minute decision?

The only person whose judgment I'm wondering about is myself. I'm pondering to what degree I might have fallen into a heuristic trap. And I'm inviting others to play along. The web is good for that. Certainly you should gather information from everywhere you can.

Lowell - your quoted email brings up the same thing I saw in my own case, which is reconsidering plans based on reading that things were not as gloppy as expected (I could quote one of my emails questioning Interglacier based on the new snow, followed by another recanting based on the reports). Having enjoyed firm smooth fresh spring snow before, my plans took a 180. I supposed I could at this point take a reductionist approach and say that this simply helped set a plan for a destination, and to the extent there were heuristic traps they were more in the form of goal orientation (however that goal was set) and "bluebird syndrome." But in any case I appreciate you prod to ponder this question.

Thanks Jim.

Had there been no significant avalanche cycle over the weekend and no close calls, there'd be nothing to talk about. But when I read about all the excitement at Rainier, it really made me stop and think, since reports from Rainier were what swung my decision.