TAY reports and avy hazard, a heuristic trap?

I use trip reports as one more piece of data in planning a tour, and the up to date info about access and snow conditions is often very helpful. I think this is useful as long as one recognizes the limitations and does not use them as substitute for their own judgement in the field. It's worth pointing out that most avalanche centers similarly rely on second hand reports to make their assessments, including NWAC. I used the reports on Thursday to help pick a tour for Sunday, but ended up bailing half way because I didn't like the soft snow.

There are lots of limitations to using online or second hand reports about snow conditions. Other then timeliness, most come from quasi anonymous sources that may have a very different experience level (that miss judge snow conditions) or risk tolerance. One party willing to accept a lot of risk might say "Dude, it was was fine we shredded it" while another might say "It was super sketchy, we high tailed it out of there" when confronted with the same snow conditions. I also think there is a significant sampling bias in the trip reports posted and the content included. No one wants to post a report that says they turned around because they thought the snow was unsafe. When mistakes do happen, many people are reluctant to admit them in a public forum. So the trip reports that do get posted may make conditions seem better then they actually are.

A good proportion of my posts are about turning around or changing plans because of my safety concerns. But I don't tend to have much to contribute in the way of epic exploits. As a 50 year old of moderate ability, about all I've got to offer is caution.

But I certainly agree that reports from yesterday (whether celebratory or cautionary) are often not very relevant.

I just wanted to add to my first reply. Echoing what a few others have said, I believe that its is my own responsibility to take all the info at my disposal and make a call on safety. I do not believe that Wolfs, Teleskichica, or others should necessarily done anything differently in their posts from last week. And I believe that on net, TAY provides us all with fantastic information and discussion which should help us all make decisions that lead us to be both more save and have more fun! I think the point regarding any heursitic trap is to be aware of its potential influence on our personal decision processes, which hopefully allows us to calibrate the trap out a bit.

Greg, I've read plenty of reports about turning around.  I was too quick with my word choice before and re-reading it now can how that isn't what I said.  I do think that these types of trips are less likely to be posted though and try to keep this in mind when reading TAY.

I was really meaning to agree with your point - that we want to encourage reports about "what I didn't do" as well as reports about "what I did". Greg

No one wants to post that they turned around, cause no one wants to turn around!

That said, &lt;A HREF=" www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboardi...topic=10314.0">my post from last week re Worm Flows</A> felt like A) a disappointment to turn around when folks were summiting and skiing down all around me, and B) the smartest thing to do based on what I could feel and hear going on under my feet.

I posted expeditiously as soon as I got home because I felt it likely some of the folks from TAY were likely headed that direction the coming saturday and sunday and this was the most expeditious way to get the word out. Not that it was unsafe period, as based on other TR's posted here over the next few days, but that there were conditions that gave me pause mid climb up specific to my route and conditions at that point.

So, heuristic traps? Well, don't take the internet for gospel, right? At the same time, first person accounts of routes you'll be using are highly useful, given a solid base of knowledge to build on once you are out there, and a ability to seperate your goals from your hazards...

I will say candidly that much of my backcountry education has come via cringing at stuff I did in the past once I knew better.

God (or whoever) looks out for fools, drunks , and early 20's passholders at Baker during the 98-99 season. Guess which category I lived thru? St Helens was the first time I called a hazard in the face of alot of contradictory input (others climbing and descending), went with MY gut, and got a real visceral affirmation that was the right thing to do, summit or no summt.

So its a win. Read for background, put your take once you're out at the foreground.