Seattle Times: "The truth about global warming"

Hey, careful there, Oker- we're not here to make friends, <br>we 're here to inflict our brilliant comments on others (JOKE).<br><br>The truth be known, I live in a small house because before I met my beautiful Democrat wife I spent my money on tele skis and gear, DH skis, randonee skis, skate skis, snowmobile to go ski touring, ski trips, you get the picture.<br><br>Gee, you seem to get my points without my ranting about bad science that has directly affected my life such as that surrounding the Spotted Owl and endangered salmon. I guess I will reserve that bit of brilliant hot air for another occasion.

Just returned from Yvon Chouinards talk in Seattle.<br><br>Message presented:<br>1a) We, as uninformed and excessive consumers, are the problem. Not Exxon nor Govt.<br>1b) The root cause of our increasing ills (broad destruction of wild places, world poverty, cancer rate, devastating flooding, pandemics, nonorganic cotton..) is mans affect on the environment.<br>2) Change comes only from civil democracy. You, altering lifestyle and business practices and encouraging others (Thoreau, Muir, or buy www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1...942-7217568?v=glance .

My interpretation is open to correction by other TAY sitting near me.

I hyper-consumed tickets, book, beverages, dinner, parking, and gas for Pathfinder, but respectfully, Mr. Chouinard and his publisher flew in.

Thanks for the trip report, Eric. I wanted to hear Chouinard's talk, but the timing didn't work out for me. I recently obtained an article that TAY readers might find interesting:<br><br>Mote, Philip W. et al, "Declining Mountain Snowpack in Western North America," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 86, No. 1, January 2005, pp. 39-49.<br><br>I downloaded the PDF file from this location . The webpage says you need a subscription to get the PDF file, but I was able to "Save Target As..." in my browser and get the file.<br><br>The article describes trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) in the western mountains over the past 80 years. It uses a hydrological model to try to determine the causes of the observed trends. The greatest SWE declines have occurred below about 6000 feet (where most NW ski areas are located.) Here's an excerpt from the Conclusions:<br><br>

Widespread declines in springtime SWE have occurred in much of the North American West over the period 1925-2000, especially since midcentury. While nonclimatic factors like growth of forest canopy might be partly responsible, several factors argue for a predominantly climatic role: the consistency of spatial patterns with climatic trends, the elevational dependence of trends, and, most important, the broad agreement with the VIC simulation.<br><br>....<br><br>We are left, then, with the most important question: Are these trends in SWE an indication of future directions? The increases in temperature over the West are consistent with rising greenhouse gases, and will almost certainly continue (Cubasch et al. 2001).  Estimates of future warming rates for the West are in the range of 2 to 5 degrees C over the next century, whereas projected changes in precipitation are inconsistent as to sign and the average changes are near zero (Cubasch et al. 2001). It is therefore likely that the losses in snowpack observed to date will continue and even accelerate (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 1999a; Payne et al. 2004), with faster losses in milder climates like the Cascades and the slowest losses in the high peaks of the northern Rockies and southern Sierra.  Indeed, the agreement in many details between observed changes in SWE and simulated future changes is striking and leads us to answer the question at the beginning of this paragraph in the affirmative. It is becoming ever clearer that these projected declines in SWE, which are already well underway, will have profound consequences for water use in a region already contending with the clash between rising demands and increasing allocations of water for endangered fish and wildlife.

<br><br>i.e. The big thaw.

I think the last chapter will be mostly about predictions for climate change in the Northwest and what they may mean for skiing from a historical perspective.

<br><br>Leave the final chapter in, Lowell. If, some day, my great-grandchildren or their children ask about skiing and all anyone can show them by way of explanation is a yellowed copy of your book, it will serve as a suitable epitaph for the sport we all love.<br>

Also remember here in WA I know of areas (I'm sure there may even be more) that set snow records. One is of course Baker, but another was in Yakima (my home town), I believe it was 1996 when they had 4' of snow on the ground set all time depth record. (going off memory so numbers are all aproximate) and in 1993 Yakima had their biggest snowfall year ever recorded. Who remembers 1990 when downtown Seattle had almost 2' of snow, or 1995 when Seattle had 17" overnight (followed by rain) causing carport collapsing all over the area. It was 1995 or 96 when Crystal had 65" snowfall in a 24hr period. <br><br>Even with all the doom and gloom talk of the disapperance of our snow, we are setting all-time snowfall/depth records around the state, and this is recent history.... Something to think about.<br><br>

One of my favorite recollections is that of a bumpersticker-<br>"mommy what is a tree?" I saw that bumpersticker on the back of of a 9-passenger spotless SUV driving on 405. The passengers were a young mother and her school-age daughter. <br><br>Since the Clinton 1993 shutdown of National Forest logging related to the Spotted Owl habitat issue, there are lots of trees growing thickly on tree farms that had been already harvested 2 to 3 times. Oops, I forgot to mention, thousands of acres are burning each summer each summer of thick unharvested, untended non-old growth tree farm areas on the Wenatchee Forest alone.<br><br>Maybe it is time for a bumper sticker- "grandpa, what is blower pow?"<br><br>I hope not.