Muiricane

Well, it's been blowing over 100 mph at Muir again, much of the day Sunday and continuing intermittently through Monday into Tuesday, March 1. Monday's maximum gust of 137 mph makes that day the 2nd windiest on record, since the station was installed in 2006.
[tt]
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center
Camp Muir, Mt Rainier National Park, Washington
Data also courtesy Mt Rainier National Park

Wind sensors unheated and may rime

  MM/DD   Hour   Temp     RH   Wind   Wind   Wind   Wind  Solar
           PST      F      %    Min    Avg    Max    Dir   W/m2
               10100' 10100' 10100' 10100' 10100' 10100' 10100'

---

   2 27      0      4     67     15     39     70    359      0
   2 27    100      3     89     21     40     58    359      0
   2 27    200      3     90     26     56     80    359      0
   2 27    300      4     90     48     68     86    359      0
   2 27    400      3     90     60     73     90    359      0
   2 27    500      3     90     37     63     82    359      0
   2 27    600      4     90     33     63     81    359      0
   2 27    700      4     90     55     69     86    359      3
   2 27    800      5     90     50     71     90    359     66
   2 27    900      5     91     63     77     91    359    178
   2 27   1000      5     90     54     81     98    359    277
   2 27   1100      5     90     64     83    100    359    324
   2 27   1200      5     91     73     86    103    359    243
   2 27   1300      5     90     75     90    101    359    259
   2 27   1400      5     90     73     96    110    359    292
   2 27   1500      4     90     79     96    111    359    198
   2 27   1600      4     90     72     94    119    359    120
   2 27   1700      5     90     80    101    120    359     46
   2 27   1800      5     91     84    102    116    359     10
   2 27   1900      5     91     85    102    128    359      0
   2 27   2000      5     91     86    102    115    359      0
   2 27   2100      6     91     85    103    112    359      0
   2 27   2200      5     91     84    102    116    359      0
   2 27   2300      5     91     92    107    128    359      0
   2 28      0      6     91     79    104    124    359      0
   2 28    100      6     91     94    112    137    359      0
   2 28    200      5     91     88    106    131    359      0
   2 28    300      5     91     84    103    127    359      0
   2 28    400      4     90     62     87     97    359      0
   2 28    500      3     90     49     78    102    359      0
   2 28    600      2     89     36     59     78    359      0
   2 28    700      2     90     50     70     89    359      2
   2 28    800      1     89     40     67     97    359     38
   2 28    900      1     89     37     67     94    359    113
   2 28   1000      0     89     36     60     85    359    208
   2 28   1100      1     89     34     72     96    359    271
   2 28   1200      1     88     42     65     88    359    312
   2 28   1300      2     90     40     69     97    359    312
   2 28   1400      2     89     36     71     98    359    310
   2 28   1500      3     90     43     63     92    359    279
   2 28   1600      1     89     37     75    118    359    172
   2 28   1700      2     89     39     67     92    359     85
   2 28   1800      2     88     54     78     95    359     16
   2 28   1900      0     89     51     78    109    359      0
   2 28   2000      2     89     55     89    111    359      0
   2 28   2100      2     89     62     82    105    359      0
   2 28   2200      3     90     62     83     99    359      0
   2 28   2300      2     89     63     82    102    359      0
    3 1      0      4     90     60     78     98    359      0
    3 1    100      4     91     60     83    105    359      0
    3 1    200      3     90     67     91    110    359      0
    3 1    300      4     90     62     82    118    359      0
    3 1    400      5     91     52     75     97    359      0
    3 1    500      7     91     42     69     91    359      0
    3 1    600     10     92     40     79    101    359      0
    3 1    700     11     93     68     91    107    359      2
3 1 800 9 92 73 91 111 359 36
3 1 900 9 92 67 76 83 359 103
3 1 1000 10 92 55 69 77 359 159
3 1 1100 11 92 58 67 74 359 216
[/tt]


Here's an updated list of days with winds over 100 mph at the Muir telemetry site:
[tt]
06Sep2006: Muir station installed
06Nov2006: 121 mph (16" of rain in 48 hrs at Paradise, park flooded and closed until May)
29Apr2007: 125 mph
30Apr2007: 100 mph

12Nov2007: 119 mph
26Nov2007: 117 mph
02Dec2007: 111 mph
29Feb2008: 109 mph
03Mar2008: 100 mph
23Mar2008: 131 mph (avg 109 mph)

data missing for most of Oct-Nov-Dec 2008
27Jan2009: 110 mph
07Mar2009: 108 mph
15Mar2009: 126 mph
04May2009: 113 mph

17Oct2009: 106 mph
11Mar2010: 101 mph
20Mar2010: 106 mph
28Mar2010: 100 mph
19May2010: 113 mph

15Nov2010: 111 mph
12Jan2011: 109 mph
07Feb2011: 116 mph
11Feb2011: 109 mph
12Feb2011: 155 mph (avg 132 mph, min 107 mph)
22Feb2011: 109 mph
27Feb2011: 128 mph
28Feb2011: 137 mph (avg 112 mph)
01Mar2011: 118 mph
[/tt]

[size=small](Edited several times to add more wind data for Monday, Tuesday.)[/size]

Pretty amazing how many hours in a row that the wind gusts exceeded 100mph. Usually these wind events last just an hour or two with strong frontal passage.

I recall some very strong winds one winter a few years back at White Pass with about three different wind events exceeding 100mph and one perhaps in the mid 130's. I am pretty sure at that time it never hit 155 mph.

The most amazing wind damage I ever saw was on the trail from Carbon River cg towards Spray Park in 1982. About a quarter of a mile of the trail was covered with old growth downfall, the biggest pile of which was nearly 30' tall. I guessed that must have been a 180mph gust or so and was probably caused by the freakish convergence of two outburst flows. There was a cyclonic distribution of the downfall.

The forecast now calls for even higher winds on Wednesday, March 2, with predicted free air winds of 90 mph at 10000 ft and and 120 mph at 14000 ft -- the latter is among the highest wind that I can ever recall seeing in the NWS Rainier forecast:

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
428 AM PST TUE MAR 1 2011

SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND WIND WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. RAIN OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 10 INCHES.
WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. WINDY. SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 8 INCHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1500 FEET.
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                       TUE    TUE    WED    WED    THU
                            NIGHT         NIGHT

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)     -1      1     -8    -14    -13
                    SW 100 SW 110 SW 120  SW 90  SW 60

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      6     18      7      3      3
                     SW 75   S 75  SW 90  SW 60  SW 40

PARADISE  (5420 FT)     30     23     29     18     27
                     SW 10  SE 10   S 20   S 15   S  5

LONGMIRE  (2700 FT)     33     29     34     28     33
                      CALM   CALM   S 10   CALM   CALM

++ TEMPERATURES AND WIND FOR THE SUMMIT AND CAMP MUIR ARE AVERAGE
   CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FREE AIR AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.
[/tt]

The cause of the high winds? An impressive-looking low pressure system, forecast to rapidly strengthen and head NE towards Vancouver Island. This image from the UW model ( www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/ ) shows expected pressure (i.e. geopotential height), temperature, and winds on the 700 millibar pressure surface (at roughly 10000 ft elevation) on Wednesday morning:


84-hour Loop: www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wx...00t+2011030112//84/3


The actual measured wind at Camp Muir is often much higher than the free air wind, as much as 50% higher or more, due to the wind accelerating as it flows above and around the massive bulk of Mount Rainier. Here is the wind portion of the forecast during the 137 mph event:

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PST MON FEB 28 2011

                       MON    MON    TUE    TUE    WED 
                            NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)    -11     -8     -2      3     -6
                    SW 100  SW 89  SW 68  SW 47  SW 76

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      2      3     11     17      9
                      W 95  SW 35  SW 41  SW 53  SW 62
[/tt]

and during the earlier 155 mph event:

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST SAT FEB 12 2011

                       SAT    SAT    SUN    SUN    MON 
                            NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)      7      3      6      4      3
                    SW 100   W 80  SW 50  SW 60  SW 70

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)     21     14     20     21     18
                    SW 100   W 60  SW 40  SW 45  SW 60
[/tt]

Both times, average measured winds at Muir exceeded the predicted free-air values for several hours, and peak gusts were about 20% above the average winds.

Interesting info in this thread. It's hard not to be reminded of puny little Mt Washington in NH. Just checked the latest from their summit observatory, and I see that they are experiencing fairly typical mid-winter gusts of 100MPH. ( www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php ). Their highest-recorded windspeed was 231MPH.

Check out the telemetry for Mt. Baker this morning with a wind gust to 116 mph. Baker's telemetry is not particularly great for showing winds aloft and was only in the low 50's max during the wind events of 2/27 to 3/1 at Muir.

The 116 mph gust today is by far the highest recorded at the Mt Baker Ski Area telemetry site, since the wind data was added in January 2008.
[tt]
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center
Mt Baker Ski Area, Washington

Wind sensors unheated and may rime
Precip gage appears to be under-recording 2-27-2011

MM/DD  Hour  Temp  Temp    RH    RH  Wind  Wind  Wind  Wind  Hour Total 24 Hr Total
         PST     F     F     %     %   Min   Avg   Max   Dir Prec. Prec.  Snow  Snow
             5000' 4210' 5000' 4210' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000' 4210' 4210' 4210' 4210'

---

   3 2   700    29    32   100   100     6    20    46   188  0.04  0.22     0   174
   3 2   800    30    33   100   100     5    26    46   194  0.04  0.26     0   174
   3 2   900    31    33   100    99     8    31    62   149  0.08  0.34     1   174
   3 2  1000    28    32   100   100    17    64   116   164  0.05  0.39    45   174
   3 2  1100    26    29   100    99    23    60   111   207  0.03  0.42    45   174
   3 2  1200    26    29   100    97    20    43    73   179  0.02  0.44    45   173
   3 2  1300    26    29   100    97    11    33    73   197  0.05  0.49    45   174
   3 2  1400    26    29   100    98    12    35    80   207  0.03  0.52    45   174
   3 2  1500    24    28   100    92    16    39    67   188  0.01  0.53  -389   174
   3 2  1600    23    27   100    89    14    37    65   191  0.00  0.53  -405   173
   3 2  1700    22    26   100    93    14    36    59   157  0.00  0.53  -385   173
   3 2  1800    21    24   100    93     9    28    56   181  0.01  0.54  -369   173
[/tt]

Here's a list of days with winds over 80 mph at the Mt Baker Ski Area site:
[tt]
09Jan2008: wind data at 5000' added to telemetry

02Mar2009:  89 mph

05Nov2009: 103 mph
17Nov2009:  88 mph
16Mar2010:  81 mph

12Feb2011:  92 mph
14Feb2011:  94 mph
02Mar2011: 116 mph
[/tt]


The maximum gust of 98 mph at Hurricane Ridge today ties the highest recorded since the 2004-5 season. Note that this telemetry site was moved in the summer of 2007, gaining elevation from 5150 ft to 5260 ft.

Here's a list of days with winds over 80 mph at the Hurricane Ridge sites since the 2004-5 season:
[tt]
15Nov2004:  98 mph

01Jan2006:  83 mph
04Jan2006:  82 mph
04Feb2006:  83 mph

19Nov2006:  79 mph

summer2007: site moved

12Nov2007:  89 mph
03Dec2007:  86 mph

no winds over 68 mph during 2008-2009 season

11Jan2010:  82 mph
15Jan2010:  81 mph
18Jan2010:  87 mph
19May2010:  83 mph

01Nov2010:  81 mph
24Dec2010:  81 mph
02Mar2011:  98 mph
[/tt]


Winds also hit 90 mph at Mission Ridge (nothing special at this site, which often exceeds 100 mph) and 80 mph at Crystal Mtn, which has been exceeded many times over the past 2 winters. Winds over 80 mph were very uncommon at Crystal though during the previous 5 winters.

Here's a list of days with winds over 80 mph at the Crystal Mountain Ski Area site since the 2004-5 season:
[tt]
no winds over 72 mph during 2004-2005 season

no winds over 75 mph during 2005-2006 season

13Nov2006:  84 mph
15Dec2006:  85 mph
09Jan2007:  86 mph

03Dec2007:  90 mph

04Jan2009:  81 mph

05Nov2009:  94 mph
09Nov2009: 102 mph
16Nov2009: 115 mph
18Nov2009:  80 mph
19Nov2009:  98 mph
20Nov2009: 107 mph
22Nov2009:  95 mph
06Dec2009:  91 mph
15Jan2010:  83 mph
17Jan2010:  98 mph
18Jan2010: 113 mph
19Jan2010:  96 mph
12Mar2010:  85 mph
29Mar2010:  92 mph
19May2010:  83 mph

15Nov2010:  83 mph
07Dec2010:  89 mph
12Dec2010:  86 mph
14Dec2010:  88 mph
18Dec2010:  91 mph
12Jan2011:  86 mph
16Jan2011:  83 mph
07Feb2011:  84 mph
12Feb2011:  88 mph
28Feb2011:  88 mph
02Mar2011:  80 mph
[/tt]


So what about Camp Muir?  The NWS revised their predicted winds for Wednesday downward significantly since the morning of March 1:

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
428 AM PST TUE MAR 1 2011

TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

                       TUE    TUE    WED    WED    THU 
                            NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)     -1      1     -8    -14    -13
                    SW 100 SW 110 SW 120  SW 90  SW 60

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      6     18      7      3      3
                     SW 75   S 75  SW 90  SW 60  SW 40
[/tt]

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
251 PM PST TUE MAR 1 2011

                       TUE    WED    WED    THU 
                     NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)      4     -7    -12    -14
                     SW 57  SW 78  SW 56  SW 44

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)     19      7      4      5
                      S 51  SW 54  SW 43  SW 32
[/tt]

[tt]MOUNT RAINIER RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
407 AM PST WED MAR 2 2011

                       WED    WED    THU    THU    FRI 
                            NIGHT         NIGHT       

SUMMIT   (14411 FT)     -6    -12    -12     -9     -3
                     SW 83  SW 48  SW 32   W 42  SW 39

CAMP MUIR(10188 FT)      7      4      7      7     12
                      SW 60  SW 35  SW 29   W 26  SW 39
[/tt]

And the actual winds at Muir turned out to be a TOTAL disappointment, only reaching 56 mph, which is pathetic compared to the numerous 100+ mph events. That value seems way too low (especially considering that Paradise reached 43 mph), and it could perhaps be a sign of partial riming of the anemometer which prevented recording a true value.