El Nino- Doom and Gloom?

NOAA just issued this. :'(

Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the north tropical Pacific.


www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_..._advisory/index.html

Well, this was the NOAA predicitions for 05/06 winter and it was way off of reality for the PNW.

www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images...2005-2006-temps2.jpg

The Farmer Almanac prediction is much different then that of NOAA for this winter.

www.farmersalmanac.com/forthepress/images/06-07USwintermap.jpg

Well, this was the NOAA predicitions for 05/06 winter and it was way off of reality for the PNW.

www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images...2005-2006-temps2.jpg

The Farmer Almanac prediction is much different then that of NOAA for this winter.

www.farmersalmanac.com/forthepress/images/06-07USwintermap.jpg

More proof that long term forecasts are often inaccurate. Before the El Nino started to develop this fall, climate models probably wouldn't have forecast yet another El Nino, after near record dry conditions in 2000-2001, a strong El Nino in 2002-3, the record setting dry winter of 2004-5 and the record setting dry summer of 2006. We used to get El Ninos about every 7 years or so, and La Ninas used to be as frequent. Make you wonder, Jack?...check out the anomaly over Alaska right now by looking at the 8-14 day outlook....appears to be about as dry and warm as it has ever been up there in the Arctic.

If I was a betting man....

This winter's forecast looks pretty much like last year's forecast... no reason to worry just yet.

See Garth's note at the end of this thread for last year:
www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboardi...dex.php?topic=3128.0

So for example the 40% contour in the temperature map over the Northwest for Dec-Jan-Feb means 73.3% chance of above normal temps.

Oops.


Anyone have the 04/05 forecast saved off for posterity?

Someone wanted to know about 2004, here is that link and they also predicted warm weather for the PNW...

www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images...ook2004-05b-temp.jpg

I just search on Google with "NOAA 2004 forecast winter" and poof, its there.....like magic. Now I need to check the Farmers Almanac for past years and see how well they did.

A quote from the GW thread:

garyabrill

Re: Seattle Times: "The truth about global warming
« Reply #193 on: 09/02/06, 11:54 AM »

"As to "Gloom and Doom" - it's a clever political buzzword - nothing more. When I see the term being used, I know there is a lack of objective thinking going on."