I appreciate NWAC very much and value the information that they put out. That said, I've noticed over the last 3 years that their avalanche forecasts are frequently one rating below what would seem to be appropriate and they upgrade the rating mid-day after seeing avalanche activity. A recent example of this would be February 9, 2017.
Initial avalanche forecast:
www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/avalanche...de-west-north-baker/
Updated forecast at 1143am, after most people have left their computers:
www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/avalanche...de-west-north-baker/
Matching archived weather forecast:
www.nwac.us/mountain-weather-forecast/mo...ather-forecast/1081/
The snowpack discussion was about consequential slabs that were propagating easily on Tuesday and the weather forecast was for 1.5 inches of rain to 5000' the next day. That seems like a pretty obvious recipe for large wet avalanche problems.
I have a feeling that NWAC doesn't want to set a pattern of forecasting higher danger and not getting any avalanche activity on those days. It might be trying to get better alignment is Canadian forecasts. I know that I've seen forecasts in Colorado that seem much riskier than what they are calling it for someone used to a PNW snowpack. Whatever the reason is behind the shift we need to be aware of what is "considerable" these days and that it is very considerable. Big avalanches happen on days that are forecasted to be considerable.
We, as users, need to be aware that what NWAC now calls Considerable often fits the description of what they used to call High just a few years back and we need to adjust our decision making accordingly.
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