Avalanche kills person near Mount Baker ski area

I shared that photo after hearing multiple comments that the slide occurred on an area known as the "Widowmaker". That zone is visible from the parking lot at HM and is NE-facing. The entire face is a rock slab with minimal vegetation - it's possible this week's rainfall percolated through to the rock beneath and lubricated it to the point where it could act as a bed surface making this a wet slab / climax event. Early details from NWAC indicate this was a natural slide which released from above.

And "Moderate" is a region-wide determination though all hazards are dependent to aspect and can be extremely local? And this is with the information contained withing the cautionary statement?

Help me with the logic here.

Why do you seem to be upset with the NWAC forecast?  They got the forecast correct based on what I observed.  I don't think I saw any active slide activity that day, just about everything had slid from the rain already... Also I haven't read about anyone else seeing any slide activity other than the accident.

We triggered an R1D1 wind slab in the Tatoosh on Sunday that propagated surprisingly far. Reported it to NWAC; you can see it on the Obs page.

Such a bummer....

Todd's anger or concern is reasonable just presented somewhat obtusely. However based on initial reports this particular incident does not seem related to any persistent weak layer.

Much as there are still areas of safe travel during periods of high avalanche danger there are also areas that are simply unsafe regardless of the avalanche hazard. The lower northeast slopes of Herman are one of those IMO. In the last 5-10 years it’s become increasingly common to see skin tracks cutting across these slopes in an effort to reach the backbowls of Herman and Slate. It’s disturbing.

Simple fact is that NWAC reports are not always accurate. While they tend to capture the big trends correctly there are times when they miss unexpected and/or rapid changes in snowpack or localized variations. But on a vast, vast majority of “moderate” days the potential for avalanches of consequence is basically zero. As a result I think a lot of backcountry users will take that as the green light to jump on just about anything without considering an actual assessment of conditions as presented. One could probably make an argument that NWAC reports are in some ways detrimental to the self-sufficiency and safety of experienced backcountry users and only really pertinent to the casual snowshoer/slackcountryer/general population.

I think the daily forecast, discussion and observations make the forecast relevant to everyone if used along with your own observations and judgement.

Like dberdinka says, this is a case of poor route selection. Maybe they triggered a small avalanche on the PWL and that took away the support of the upper slopes causing a far more dangerous climax avalance?

Adding to dberdinka's helpful comments, Herman is large and very complex terrain. For example, many people confuse Herman's SE shoulder with Herman proper, when in fact they are separated by significant terrain features.

Herman is also wonderful skiing right next to a parking lot. It has many aspects, points many directions, and has many cliff bands. Hazards (avalanche, long slide) could vary completely on a single day depending on where you are on this mountain, no matter what a region-wide forecast says. I personally saw the relatively moderate E. face of Herman shoulder slab off with a hundreds-of-yards wide 3 foot crown. Two riders were flushed unhurt down nearly to Bagley creek.

I am saddened for all involved in this incident, the first of which in some time in the Baker backcountry, and hope the NWAC accident report has good photos so people can learn from this incident.