It slid last week so it's good…right?

if you  want to have a valid discussion on all relevant topics of bc safety and how some of the old time,local BC skiers communicate, i would welcome that. However, last time we tried that, it did not go well. My only option has been to seek regulatory intervention and control, which is the right of all citizens concerning public land use. 

If you cannot answer my question I'm going to have to assume that you were referring to the avalanche forecast.  If you have valid critiques of the forecast, or can offer more information about avalanche and snowpack observations that would be great.  The more eyes in the field the better.  I suggest you post your observations here. www.wwu.edu/huxley/spatial/maps/nwac/ .  If you would like to improve the accuracy of your observations and your ability to communicate these observations I'd suggest taking an AIARE Level 2 avalanche course.  With your interest in the ski guiding profession this might be a good place to start to learn more about the professionalism required for entry level guides. 

Sometimes FSG and I agree, sometimes we don't.

No such thing as perfect accuracy when it comes to prediction and snows desire to slide down the hill. I appreciate NWAC and Jeff Wards efforts. Much better that anything we've had in the past.

Matt

Hopefully productive conversations, though that's officially one jacked thread.
Seriously, thanks for the insight from those who responded to the topic.
Looking forward to everyone's input about that now crazy deep crust when spring melting percolates down to it on our favorite late season routes.

Hopefully productive conversations, though that's officially one jacked thread.

What were you expecting my friend? A learned discussion focused on the topic? HaHa.

Avy forum+east side locals= thread jack and some seriously entertaining exchanges.

I enjoyed it all. Jeff Ward, fabulous work this winter. My hat is tipped to you and others at the new observer program at NWAC.

exactly. And to add. Jeff, thanks for your suggestion about the avy class. A old time guide friend once suggested that i take an avy three course. I remember him asking my advice on where to ski because he had not been out yet. I think he trusts my obsevations because i told about a wl i had seen and later the pwl that resulted in a slide that his clients dug him out of using ski tips because he had the only shovel. Any way, on the tour i advised him on, I informed him about those snow flake thing types that are very bad to have,especially near the ground. He had a problem free tour. Meanwhile, my friends on a different tour triggered a climax avy after skiing and skining back up the slope. They, however did not try to hide that mistake and we all learned from it, both in a practicle sense and an ethical sense. 

At times it can be difficult to understand what you are trying to say. In this particular post are you implying that guides are hiding avalanche incidents from the public? If so, I'd love for you to just come out at say it. NCMG reports all avalanches, natural or skier triggered, to NWAC every day we are out. This is not something that is required from the Forest Service. This is something we do as a public service so NWAC can provide a quality avalanche forecast for the area.

I am glad to hear that I wasn't the first person to encourage you to take an avalanche course. I thought it might be taken the wrong way coming from me. It doesn't appear that you have a good understanding of the effort and professionalism that is needed to accomplish a standard day of guiding. I think the more effort you put into this part of your education the more effective your comments/critiques of the guiding profession will be. If you truly want to make a change in what is going on you will probably need to put in a little more effort in this category.

One observation i had this year was seeing large guided groups skiing on the slopes below delancy ridge on 2-15 and 2-16 during all that loading. Those large D3s came down to the hwy with a little more loading what, less than 48 hours later? There is a reason you don't see the locals on those slopes during major loading events. Can we expect not to see the guides out under simular conditions in the future? Or maybe you don't consider this  to be a close call because your observations told you  exactly how much loading was reguired to bring this mass down?

Let me fill out some of the missing information here:

"A little more loading" is quite an understatement. Those avalanches came down in the early morning of the 19th after a ton of new snow, falling at a very high rate. Our groups on Delancy on the 15th and 16th had snowfall rates averaging S1 (1 cm per hour) during their time out there and the avalanches that eventually came down (approximately 72 hours later) did not come down the terrain they were using.

If you pick your terrain wisely, Delancy can be a reasonable place to ski during a storm cycle. Quite a few locals use Delancy as a storm skiing zone. I agree that there are times when it might be inappropriate but I disagree with you when you imply that having skiers there on the 15th and 16th was inappropriate.

As far as group size goes, we had two groups out on the 15th. Each group had 4 guests with 1 guide. On the 16th we also had two groups out. Each group had 3 guests with 1 guide. This information is an attempt to help define what you meant by large.

besides the nwac report there are three commercial outlets containing commercial bc reporting available in the methow valley. Don't assume what you don't know as fact.

Could you be a little more specific? I'm not sure what you mean by "three commercial outlets containing commercial bc reporting".

I could ask you again what misinformation you were referring to but I doubt we would get a straight answer. It doesn't really matter. What concerns me is that you implied that these large avalanches were running on the deep persistent layer. From what we observed, that wasn't the case. If you have more information regarding this it would be very helpful. I doubt many people are making decisions based on your comments but I'd hate to see someone think that those slopes are good to go because the deep persistent layer has been wiped out (trying to bring the thread back to the original subject - sorry once again about the major thread jack).

Jeff

This back and forth reminds me of a quote from Mark Twain - "Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference". I should have heeded Twain's advice before responding to your post, but I think it has been worth it.