Snow stability this weekend

Nwac forecast is high today, as I would expect. With temps cooling down, and clouds rolling in, where do you think the general forecast will go - considerable, moderate? Am considering a ski tour up into the moderately angled bowl just west of Earl peak, Bean creek basin I think. Won't go though unless I can convince myself the snow has stabilized enough.

It will need to freeze tonight, not just surface freezing but deep as the snowpack almost everywhere is saturated I would bet. With increasing cloud cover today and tonight I wouldn't bet on a solid freeze. You will never know unless you go though.

Thanks guys for sharing your risk assessment for this weekend. It just won't be fun worrying about slide potential while out there so I'll don either the wetsuit or mountain bike instead of skiis!

Yeah, I was hoping to hit a moderately steep but big slope (30-35 degrees mostly) on Saturday, out in the Teanaway where road access is clearly opening up. But the forecast has worsened, so that tonight "mostly cloudy" is predicted with above freezing temps close to the top of my objective overnight. If the weather were predicted to be a bit nicer tomorrow (was "partly sunny with a few snow showers" but is now more like "mostly cloudy with 40% chance of showers, which having been there before on a similar day this time of year I suspect will be OK but not the dream corn I'd hope for...), I might be more motivated to go anyway but dig down quite a ways before getting onto the steeps to see if it's still wet down there (slides have been running pretty deep per notes and photos in NWAC forecast discussion - so pit would need to be fairly deep I think!), and back off to mellower nearby slopes if it is wet. But unless my potential partner pushes hard, I'm more likely to vector to a different activity for tomorrow. Luckily, we live in a place where there are just so many great recreational choices this time of year!

I won't, however, be shocked to see a glowing report from around where I intended to go, with no note of slides. And those reporters may be smart, lucky, or a bit of both!

We found a big difference in the surface snow between the lower and upper slopes of Bean Creek Basin on Saturday. By the time we got to the head of the basin, skinning up through the trees on the Mary and Judy side, we had made the decision to ascend no further. Pole penetration while skinning was easily 20-30 cm on the basket end. Ski penetration on the initial turns was anywhere from boot top to mid-calf, becoming much more firm in the lower basin.

Thanks for the report. I was a little curious what I was missing as I looked over at the Teanaway/Enchantments peaks which were quite visible earlier in the day on Saturday as we were heading to go hike the Yakima Rim/Skyline. It looked like there was a fair bit of fresh snow higher up. Not quite the firm top-to-bottom corn I'd been visualizing from my desk earlier in the week. The dog (who is too gimpy for us to bring on ski tours) was happy, and it was a nice hike for the humans too.