Snow Depth at Schriebers Meadows?

So, as many of you know, snowmobiles are not allowed at the Park Butte area if there is less than two feet of snow at Schriebers Meadows ( www.fs.usda.gov/recarea/mbs/recreation/r...recid=30330&actid=38 ). So, how do you know how much snow is there? I can't find the snow level on any website.
Anyone have any ideas?

I've been shoveling snow away as fast as possible but still, too much snow...

The FS will announce the closure when it happens. You can call them for info. I think it usually happens around the beginning of June, but may go later in a really big snow year. No reason you can't go up sooner if you like. Just don't be surprised when you run into sledders at the most popular late season riding spot in WA.

Do you know if they announce it on their website? It would be nice if they gave the current depth (maybe even a count down) so folks would have an idea of when it will be closed for snow machines. I would imagine the snowmobile folks would be even more interested (it would suck to haul a sled up there only to see a "machines not allowed" sign).

The current snow depth at Schriebers Meadow is far over 24". Probably over 10 ft, given that the depth on April 7 was 172" (see below).

The Forest Service makes its own snow depth measurement someplace near the trailhead to determine the snowmobile closure. I don't know the details of how or exactly where they make the measurement, and that info is not available online as far as I know. In past years, they have posted the closure on the MBS website once it has gone into effect (but never the current depth or any sort of countdown). However, the entire USFS website has been completely redone over the past 1-2 years, and the MBS Current Conditions page where the closure info used to be posted no longer exists. Not sure where they will post it -- most likely, on this page which is updated somewhat regularly: Baker Lake Road (Forest Road #11) Conditions

However, there is a monthly snow course site at Schriebers Meadow, where data is still collected semi-regularly sometime near the first of each month from January to June, and the nearby Elbow Lake SNOTEL site about 5 miles west which has hourly snow depth data. That SNOTEL site is what I have looked at for many years, supplemented by the occasional snow course number from Schriebers Meadow to "calibrate" the SNOTEL value to the actual (deeper) snow depth there. There is also the newer Marten Ridge SNOTEL site about 7 miles NE of Schriebers Meadow, which was installed in 2006. See below for details.

Recent data for that snow course can be found on this page: www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/snow_rpt.pl?state=washington   You want the reports named "BASS" for each month, and scroll down to the bottom of the report to find the site (yes, they have misspelled it as "Schreibers" in the official name of the snow course). Here is a summary of the data from those BASS files for the past two years:
[tt]
        SNOW COURSE         ELEVATION    DATE    SNOW   WATER     LAST   AVERAGE
                                                DEPTH  CONTENT    YEAR     71-00

---

2011:
Jan     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   12/30/10    68     21.8     19.2     23.2
Feb     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400    1/26/11    60     27.0     21.8     32.4
Mar     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   no report                   35.3     43.5
Apr     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   no report                   39.5     52.6
May     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400    5/01/11   130     58.5      ---     53.2
Jun     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   no report                    ---     41.4

2012:
Jan     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   no report                   21.8     23.2
Feb     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400    1/27/12    96     31.7     27.0     32.4
Mar     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400    3/03/12   138     52.4      ---     43.5
Apr     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400    4/07/12   172     82.6     62.2     52.6
May     SCHREIBERS MDW    AM   3400   no report                   58.5     53.2
[/tt]
The 172" in early April 2012 is about 140% of normal, which is consistent with what was measured at other sites in the WA Cascades this April. It is unclear if the May 2012 data has not yet been taken, or if it will never be taken this year. As you can see, data collection for this site (and most other snow courses) is very spotty, and obviously is a very low priority for NRCS.

The historical data for that snow course from 1959-2010 is in this file, www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/snow/s...washington/21a10.txt , accessed from www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snowcourse . Figuring out how to properly read that file is non-trivial -- all the lines which begin YY-1 contain data taken near the first of the month from January to June for the year YY, while the lines which begin YY-2 have mid-month data, and the lines which begin YY-3 are special data points taken in Oct, Nov, Dec, and July.

This shows an average snow depth of 123" on April 1, 116" on May 1, and 77" on June 1 at Schriebers Meadow (very spotty data for June though, especially in recent decades). These averages may be somewhat skewed upward (by perhaps 10% or so) since they have much less missing data during the very snowy years through 1976, but much more missing in recent decades.

Since one typically wants more current data than a (sort of) monthly snow course, the nearest hourly telemetry site is the Elbow Lake SNOTEL , less than 5 miles west of Schriebers Meadow and just over 300 ft lower, located at 3040 ft along the ridge south of Bell Pass near the end of FR 12 (it is not at Elbow Lake). This location gets comparable (perhaps slightly more) precip to Schriebers Meadow, in fact with an average annual precip of nearly 150", it is among the wettest measurement sites in the entire Cascade Range, exceeded only by the newer Marten Ridge SNOTEL at 3520 ft on the east side of Mount Baker (installed 2006, averaging about 155" of precip) and a couple of SNOTEL sites on the south side of Mt St Helens (June Lake and Swift Creek, which average about 170" of precip). The Marten Ridge SNOTEL is located near the end of FR 1130, and is about 7 miles NE of Schriebers Meadow.

Here is a map showing all three sites (use Menu: Label On/Off to turn the labels off if you wish):
www.mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php?q=htt...ap.txt&label=on&t=t4

Because the Elbow Lake SNOTEL site is about 320 ft lower than Schriebers Meadow (the trailhead is at 3360 ft, but most snow course elevations are rounded to the nearest hundred), average snow depths there are less. Since the snow depth gauge was installed at the Elbow Lake SNOTEL site in 1996, the average snow depth is 92" on April 1, 67" on May 1, and only 21" on June 1 (these are my own calculations using data from the annual files). That is quite a big difference compared to Schriebers Meadow, especially in late spring, so the current depth at Elbow Lake SNOTEL can be used as a lower bound on the current snow depth at Schriebers Meadow.

Since Marten Ridge SNOTEL is about 160 ft higher than Schriebers Meadow, its snow depth should be somewhat greater. This site was installed in the summer of 2006, and so its averages are distorted by several far-above-normal snowfall seasons since then, namely the huge years of 2008, 2011, and 2012 (i.e 3 out of its 6 years of data), while it missed out on the disastrous near-zero snowdepths of 2005. The average snow depth is 145" on April 1, 128" on May 1, and 76" on June 1 (these are my own calculations using data from the annual files). I would guess that these values are at least 10-20% greater than the long-term average would be over the next couple decades, but still the current depth at Marten Ridge SNOTEL can be used as an upper bound on the current snow depth at Schriebers Meadow.

Here is a comparison of the average snow depth throughout the season at the three sites (note that June data at Schriebers Meadow only exists during 1961-1999, and it is missing almost half of those years):
[tt]
                                 AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH ON FIRST OF MONTH      PERIOD
SITE                ELEVATION   Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    OF RECORD

---

Schriebers Meadow      3400     64"    84"   108"   123"   116"    77"    1959-2012
Elbow Lake SNOTEL      3040     47"    68"    83"    92"    67"    21"    1996-2012
Marten Ridge SNOTEL    3520     77"    98"   121"   145"   128"    76"    2006-2012
[/tt]

Here is the last 2 weeks of hourly data from Elbow Lake SNOTEL ( www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sntl-datarpt....910&days=14&state=wa ) and Marten Ridge SNOTEL ( www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sntl-datarpt....999&days=14&state=wa ). Unfortunately, something went wrong at Elbow Lake on April 26, and hourly data transmission ceased at that point. The next several days through May 1 are some type of manually estimated or corrected data, with a special 0001 timestamp. The Marten Ridge site has good data throughout this year.

But anyway, both SNOTEL sites should work properly most years, and give some idea of what the minimum/maximum amount of snow at Schriebers Meadow may be. If there is a recent snow course measurement, then that can be used to "calibrate" the SNOTEL values.

Here is a comparison of actual snow depth values during 2012 at the three sites (March 21 was the seasonal maximum at both SNOTEL sites):
[tt]
                                ACTUAL SNOW DEPTH ON DATE IN 2012
SITE                ELEVATION   Jan27   Mar3  Mar21  Apr7    May1

---

Schriebers Meadow      3400       96"   138"    --    172"    --
Elbow Lake SNOTEL      3040       75"   113"   150"   124"    96"
Marten Ridge SNOTEL    3520      106"   158"   203"   181"   147"
[/tt]

Given the May 1 depths of 96" at Elbow Lake SNOTEL and 147" at Marten Ridge SNOTEL, Schriebers Meadow most likely had about 130-140" of snow depth on that date. Snow depths have not decreased at Marten Ridge through May 6 due to continued precip and snowfall during the week.


(By the way, I had found and analyzed the data for Schriebers Meadow and Elbow Lake SNOTEL back in 2004, but after seeing this thread, I decided to spend a couple hours updating my spreadsheets through this year. Now edited to add data from Marten Ridge SNOTEL which was installed in 2006, and which I just analyzed today.)

(And in case anyone is wondering why I'm sitting here posting on TAY and not out skiing on such a beautiful sunny Sunday -- I caught a cold of some sort after Friday, which was a fun day skiing some 12-16" deep May powder at Crystal Mountain (closed). So I've had a headache and been coughing since Saturday morning, which got really bad overnight and made sleeping very difficult and often interrupted. It's improving somewhat this morning, and hopefully I can get out and ski on Monday, which should have even more sunshine and better consolidated snow than today.)

Started thinking about this again late this evening. So how long will the snowpack at Schriebers Meadow take to drop below 24" this year?

Maybe looking at what it did last year will help give some idea. Here is a comparison of actual snow depth values during 2011 at the three sites:
[tt]
                               

---

ACTUAL SNOW DEPTH ON DATE IN 2011

---

SITE                ELEVATION   Jan26   Mar1   Apr6   May1   Jun1  Jun21   Jul1  Jul18

---

Schriebers Meadow      3400       60"    --     --    130"    --     --     --     --
Elbow Lake SNOTEL      3040       51"    84"   128"   106"    67"    24"     0"     0"
Marten Ridge SNOTEL    3520       79"   126"   192"   168"   128"    90"    69"    24"
[/tt]
(Archived daily data for any year is available in the "View Historic" section in the lower right of each SNOTEL site's page, select "Water Year" and the year of interest: Elbow Lake SNOTEL , Marten Ridge SNOTEL )

April 6 was the 2011 seasonal maximum at both SNOTEL sites. Elbow Lake did not drop to 24" until June 21, while Marten Ridge did not drop to 24" until July 18. So Schriebers Meadow probably dropped below 24" in early July, but I've been unable to find out the date at which the Mt Baker Recreation Area closed to snowmobiles last year. The date was not given in any of the MBS Road-Trail Conditions pages during the summer of 2011 (I periodically archive those webpages for possible future reference). Maybe someone else has saved that date from some other source?

It is interesting to note that the difference in snow depth between the Marten Ridge and Elbow Lake SNOTEL sites was remarkably constant from April 6 onward, pretty much a 60-65" difference until late June. Assuming that the difference between Schriebers Meadow and both of the SNOTEL sites followed a similar near-constant trend, then based on the May 1 values, the Schriebers Meadow snow depth should be roughly 24" greater than Elbow Lake and about 38" less than Marten Ridge for the rest of the spring. This would imply that Schriebers Meadow dropped below 24" around July 3, when Marten Ridge reached 61" (Elbow Lake had melted out to zero on June 29).

Last year had an unusually cool and cloudy May, delaying snowmelt greatly. As of May 1, this year's snow depth at these SNOTEL sites (although far above normal) is about 10-20" less than 2011, but it appears likely that the 2012 snow depth at Schriebers Meadow is at least equal to 2011, if my estimate of 130-140" given in the previous post is accurate. On average, these two SNOTEL sites lose about 50" of snow depth from May 1 to June 1, and 60" from June 1 to July 1 (only counting years that have non-zero snowpack remaining by those dates). So given normal weather conditions for the rest of May and June, the 130-140" currently estimated at Schriebers Meadow will not drop below 24" until the last week of June.


What about 2008, the last comparably huge snow year prior to the past two? That year the Recreation Area closed to snowmobiles sometime between the MBS road reports of June 26 (FR 13 open to 1/2 mile from trailhead) and July 3 (FR 13 open to 1/4 mile from trailhead, report says "closed to snowmobiles").

Here is a comparison of snow depth values during 2008 at the three sites:
[tt]
                                 

---

ACTUAL SNOW DEPTH ON DATE IN 2008

---

SITE                ELEVATION    Feb8   Mar4   Apr2   May5   Jun1  Jun22   Jul1

---

Schriebers Meadow      3400       --    153"   156"   123"    --     --     --
Elbow Lake SNOTEL      3040      160"   115"   139"   136"    63"    24"     0"
Marten Ridge SNOTEL    3520      175"   151"   166"   143"    88"    60"    24"
[/tt]
February 8 was the 2008 seasonal maximum at both SNOTEL sites, an unusually early date for a seasonal maximum (it is typically in mid-to-late March at these sites). Note that the Elbow Lake snow depth sensor after March 12 was flaky and erroneous, and the snow depth data was estimated by NRCS afterwards based on the snow-water-content data, so it is not the actual measured snow depth after that date.

But as expected, the date at which Schriebers Meadow dropped below 24" occurred several days after Elbow Lake SNOTEL dropped below that value on June 22, and just before or around the same date as Marten Ridge SNOTEL dropped below that value on July 1.