Weather forecast

Hello TAY,

my name is Michael and I live in Munich (Bavaria, Germany). I will visit the US Northwest in June (2012!). My friend and I are planing to climb a few mountains including Rainier . Therefore we need to have a good weather forecast and avalanche report. We have a fair amount of experience in the mountains, but the experience of a local is priceless...

Therefore it you be kind, if you could answer a few questions and provide a few links:

• Where do we get the best weather forecast for Washington state?
• Where can we get reports on avalanche conditions?
• Are there any rules of thumb regarding the weather.(*)

Michael.

(*) Rule of thumbs have to be handled with care, but in Western Europe most of the time the weather (the wind) comes from the west (Atlantic Ocean). One can find the result of this fact amount other things in the avalanche statistics.

I don't think you get "official" avalanche intelligence in June, at least not from NWAC - your best bet may be to read forum for conditions from latest trip reports and generally ask people who regularly ski / climb where you are going

NOAA is your best source for up to date weather information anywhere in the United States:
Home page:
www.noaa.gov/

Type in " Paradise, WA" in the "City, ST" search box on the left side of the page for one point forecast on Mt Rainier.

So glad some Bavarian brothers will come see us!

There is a Rainier-specific forecast issued twice a day by the National Weather Service:
www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

The climbing rangers at Mount Rainier National Park are also excellent resources for on-mountain conditions. Chatting with them before you head up on the mountain will be quite useful. The rangers have a blog that is sometimes updated frequently (with route-specific subpages), and sometimes infrequently.
mountrainierclimbing.blogspot.com/

Avalanche-wise, nwac.us will occasionally issue an official warning on warm days immediately following snowfall in May and June, but you're mostly on your own. In the absence of new snowfall, the primary hazard is wet slides. An early start usually helps.

For recent weather history:
www.nwac.us/ ("Mountain Weather" sidebar link, then "telemetry")
OR
kantola.nl/weather.html#oalp
OR
cascadecrud.com

For Hood and Adams:
forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=ORZ011

For the N. Cascades in general:
www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/main.php?wfo=sew&pil=zfp&sid=sew&zone=518
and
www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/forecast03.php

If you like to make your own forecasts:
www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/
The WRF-GFS models are sometimes excellent. NAM gives a second opinion.

A few weather thoughts:
Weather usually comes from the west.
Lenticular clouds on the volcanoes tend to indicate a storm in the near future.
Lenticulars are windy inside.
Weather section from Gauthier's book

Also worth noting is that Rainier often gets hit first and hardest by the hard weather. OK, strictly speaking, this isn't quite true. The storm will usually hit the Olympic Mountains before they hit Rainier. But Rainier, unlike a lot of the mountains, doesn't have much blocking it. The weather often swoops around the south side of the Olympics and hits Rainier hard and fast. This is especially true for the south side (close to Paradise). You might be enjoying a nice sunny day, and then, within minutes, be in whiteout conditions. This can be especially annoying (and dangerous if unprepared) in the winter.

I think you are doing the right thing in asking about weather information. My advice is to check in a few days before you expect to go. In June, our three day forecasts are pretty accurate. Also, be ready to try other things. If the weather is bad, you might be able to climb to the top of a peak, but why bother? In general, when the weather is bad, it means you can't see anything. It is better under those conditions to head east. The east side of our mountains are much drier, and tend to have better weather. Again, it is best to check in a few days before you plan on going, and folks will be able to give you plenty of good ideas.

Thanks to all who gave a Bavarian hints on the weather!!

Michael.