Mt. Rainier, Longmire-Paradise Road opening matrix

I just ran across this; I had not seen it before; it is dated 11/10, so it may have been created last fall; it might be useful to bc enthusiasts:

Will the road to Paradise open?

Sorry Andy, but I think this road opening decision tree is more useful to cover-your-ass NPS managers looking for an excuse to keep Paradise closed than to bc enthusiasts.  Note that any one of the following, a winter storm watch, forecast high avy hazard, observed avy activity (usually roadcut sluffs), wind, fog, or insufficient staff - can be used to justify remaining closed.  So far, this year's box score is 38 non-openings, 12 post-noon openings, 5 early closures, and two stealth openings (when announced closed).

It would be more useful for those wishing to ski in a Washington National Park to remember Stormking's conclusion on the Occupy Hurricane Ridge thread:  "If it snows at all the road is late or closed."  If you want to be sure of an early start, or of skiing at all, wait until the Paradise Inn opens (May 18th), when the road is no longer locked nightly at Longmire.

There may be some CYA in this, but it is the first decision tree I have seen for their process (you may have seen others) and it fits very nicely with their decisions this year; I don't recall any previous mention of a  formal introduction of the Mt. Rainier Rec Forecast and the NWAC avy forecast into a decision tree; and the addition of just "high" (instead of extreme) avy danger combined with a "deep snow pack" seems to me to be an interesting new development (but the whole thing may be old hat in your experience).

What this decision tree says to me, rather unequivocally, is there will be many more predictable closures--you won't have to bother to drive to Longmire and wait to see if the get will open.

It seems rather certain that the conditions under which the climbers and snowshoers got lost this year (forecast snow and high winds) will no longer be available to the foolhardy.

In complete agreement with Gary on this one.  When I saw dialogue box #2 (and then #4), I chuckled and wondered if they really believe that this qualifies as a decision making process - loaded with subjectivity and few metrics.  Perhaps internally they have objective standards for what is 'enough' LEOs, etc. At least, I suppose, it panders to the would-be believers.

It will be interesting, though, as Andy notes, whether they, through this matrix or otherwise,  will attempt to more often preclude access during difficult conditions - not that many of us would want that to happen..

My main interest in posting the matrix was to "inform" the bc skiers who have to travel from Olympia, Seattle, and beyond to get to the park. If they want to make a day of it, they have to decide the day before and leave before the park tweets and get to Longmire, playing gate opening roulette. If I lived in Olympia (like I used to) I would make my decisions about whether or not to plan to take a day off and load up the car by using the matrix, the Rec Forecast, and then NWAC avy forecast--believe or not, it would reduce the probability of getting to Longmire to find out the gate won't open. I didn't have the matrix in the past. I never did, nor would I now, play the cynicism game "it snowed, so it won't open." I'd rather buy a season pass to Crystal (like many others) and save my Paradise skiing for summer, spring, and fall; or like many I know, just quit skiing in Mt. Rainier during the winter due the uncertainty of gate openings. Now that I live outside the gate (like Vogtski) or not too far away like Dave, I can sit in front of my fire, with a cup of coffee, check the tweets, look at the Paradise webcams and decide whether and when to load up the car for Paradise or go do some ski patrol on MTTA.

So what part of this Matrix made them wait until 9 ish on Monday to open the damn gate.....melting asphalt due to high temperatures? No air conditioning in the Park truck?... Coffee maker not working.....donut delivery delayed?

Your matrix is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. :

Although I did get nice cup of coffee at the Longmire Inn and speak to a nice lady in her, I guess late 50's who had  short bright red, almost purple hair and had just started a job there having come from the NP in Death Valley.
She had a thumb ring as well.

Thumb rings on women over 50.......mutton dressed as lamb IMHO.