Snowpack in WA now ABOVE normal & DEEPER than 2011

After all the misguided whining about our sunny weather and "low" snowpack throughout December 2011 and the first part of January 2012, the snowpack is now above normal and deeper than in 2011 as of this date throughout the Washington Cascades, much of the Olympics, and also the northern Oregon Cascades as far south as Mount Bachelor. At some sites it is much deeper than 2011, the difference most pronounced at some lower elevation sites and also near Stevens and Snoqualmie, where snowdepths are about 3 feet deeper than 2011. However, in the southern Oregon Cascades snowdepths are near or just below their 2011 values, and they also remain far below 2011 throughout the California Cascades and Sierra Nevada, which have only started to build a snowpack from mostly bare ground within the last week.

So why is the Washington and northern Oregon snowpack doing so well now? Well, one reason is that it was never really that bad at any point this season. The season got off to a quick start with heavy snowfall in November 2011. Then the sunny ridge of high pressure which dominated the first 3 weeks of December 2011, and the lingering ridge off the coast which continued to steer most storm systems north of us during the next 3 weeks into mid-January 2012, managed to preserve November's fat early-season snowpack quite well, with no periods of strong warming or heavy rainfall which would decimate the snowpack. Since January 14, the storm track has shifted south from BC and been aimed directly at Washington and Oregon, and most sites have received about 3-6 feet of new snowfall during the last 9 days, with over 8 feet at some sites.

In 2011, most of January and early February was relatively dry in the Cascades, with only occasional snowfall. Intense and sustained heavy snowfall returned in late February 2011, and continued throughout March and April, with the seasonal snowpack peaking in the last days of April at many sites. Despite 2012 now being ahead of 2011, the probability of 2012 matching the tremendous late-season snowdepths of 2011 is near-zero, only a few percent at most, because 2011 had snowdepths so far above-normal and at near-record values during May, June, and the summer. However, the 2012 snowpack is now almost certain to be somewhat above-normal throughout Washington and the northern Oregon Cascades given the current snowdepths and the continuing moderate La Nina pattern.

Snowdepths as of January 23 in 2012 and 2011, for all NWAC sites plus a few selected other sites:
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Measurement Site                Elev    2012    2011    Diff    Notes

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Hurricane Ridge, Olympics       5250'    88"     70"    +18"    NWAC
Waterhole, Olympics             5010'    77"     59"    +18"    SNOTEL
Buckinghorse, Olympics          4870'   100"    102"     -2"    SNOTEL
Mount Crag, Olympics            3960'    68"     68"      0"    SNOTEL
Mt Baker Ski Area               4210'   134"    119"    +15"    NWAC
Mt Baker, Marten Ridge          3520'   100"     81"    +19"    SNOTEL
Mt Baker, Elbow Lake            3040'    67"     53"    +14"    SNOTEL
Brown Top, near Mt Redoubt      5830'   146"    109"    +37"    SNOTEL
Rainy Pass                      4890'    92"     60"    +32"    SNOTEL
Washington Pass                 5450'    93"     78"    +15"    NWAC
Harts Pass                      6490'    86"     81"     +5"    SNOTEL
Freestone Inn, Mazama           2170'    39"     20"    +19"    NWAC
Holden Village                  3220'    85"     42"    +43"    manual measurement site
Lyman Lake                      5980'   131"    109"    +22"    SNOTEL
Trinity                         2930'    94"     55"    +39"    SNOTEL
Stevens Pass, Skyline           5250'   106"     87"    +19"    NWAC
Stevens Pass, Daisy             4390'    92"     59"    +33"    NWAC
Stevens Pass, WSDOT             3950'    91"     51"    +40"    NWAC
Stevens Pass, Grace Lakes       4800'   120"     80"    +40"    NWAC
Berne Maintenance Station       2700'    54"     --      --     NWAC, new site installed Nov 2011
Lake Wenatchee State Park       1930'    41"     20"    +21"    NWAC
Tumwater Mtn, Leavenworth       4180'    39"     21"    +18"    NWAC
Mission Ridge Ski Area          5160'    35"     31"     +4"    NWAC
Alpental Ski Area               3100'    96"     62"    +34"    NWAC
Snoqualmie Pass                 3010'    91"     52"    +39"    NWAC
Olallie Meadows                 4030'   108"     57"    +51"    SNOTEL
Stampede Pass                   3850'    82"     43"    +39"    SNOTEL
Crystal Mtn Ski Area            4570'    65"     49"    +16"    NWAC
Crystal Mtn, Green Valley       6230'   101"     68"    +33"    NWAC
Cayuse Pass                     5240'   111"     97"    +14"    SNOTEL
Mt Rainier, Sunrise             6410'    78"     --      --     NWAC, offline in 2011 season
Mt Rainier, Paradise            5400'   123"    110"    +13"    NWAC
Mt Rainier, Longmire            2760'    21"      5"    +16"    NPS manual measurement site
White Pass Ski Area             5800'   117"     84"    +33"    NWAC
White Pass E.S.                 4440'    54"     40"    +14"    SNOTEL
Mt Adams, Potato Hill           4510'    69"     51"    +18"    SNOTEL
Mt St Helens, Swift Creek       4440'    82"     82"      0"    SNOTEL
Mt St Helens, Sheep Canyon      3990'    59"     56"     +3"    SNOTEL
Mt St Helens, June Lake         3440'    64"     60"     +4"    SNOTEL

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Mt Hood, Timberline Lodge       5880'   118"     95"    +23"    NWAC
Mt Hood Meadows Ski Area        5380'    96"     72"    +24"    NWAC
Mt Hood Ski Bowl                5010'    55"     43"    +12"    NWAC
Hogg Pass (Santiam Pass)        4790'    57"     37"    +20"    SNOTEL
McKenzie Pass                   4770'    64"     57"     +7"    SNOTEL
Mt Bachelor, Mid Mountain       7300'   110"     93"    +17"    from ski area website
Mt Bachelor, West Village       6300'    97"     75"    +22"    from ski area website
Cascade Summit, Willamette Pass 5100' 53" 57" -4" SNOTEL
Diamond Peak, Summit Lake 5610' 64" 58" +6" SNOTEL
Diamond Lake 5280' 30" 19" +11" SNOTEL
Crater Lake National Park       6470'    69"     72"     -3"    NPS manual measurement site
Crater Lake, Annie Springs      6010'    70"     65"     +5"    SNOTEL
Pelican Butte, Cold Springs     5940'    51"     42"     +9"    SNOTEL
Mt McLoughlin, Fourmile Lake    5970'    47"     41"     +6"    SNOTEL
Mt McLoughlin, Billie Creek     5280'    36"     36"      0"    SNOTEL

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Medicine Lake Volcano           6700'    27"     45"    -18"    CCSS
Mt Shasta, Old Ski Bowl         7600'    55"     95"    -40"    MSAC, 2012 value is estimated
Mt Shasta, Sand Flat            6750'    51"     69"    -18"    CCSS
Castle Lake, SW of Shasta       5870'    46"     56"    -10"    MSAC
Lassen Peak, Lake Helen         8250'    63"    112"    -49"    CCSS
Lassen Park, Harkness Flat      6200'    25"     40"    -15"    CCSS
Lassen Park, Manzanita Lake     5750'     5"     24"    -19"    NPS manual measurement site
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Edited to add California Cascades data, plus minor updates.

Brown Top, near Mt Redoubt      5830'   146"    109"    +37"    SNOTEL

AWESOME! The leader of all snowpacks.  Did Redoubt and Spickard last year (as a climb without skis).  An amazing area with a long approach (drive included), but oh so beautiful.  Considering going back there this summer for Rahm and Custer (and maybe someday Mox Peaks).

Also the difference in snowpack at the passes is really impressive.

It was odd hearing so much said about a lost season a couple of weeks ago, yet it was only the beginning of January.  Odd since perceptions from last year were so wrong.  Even from a local weather snow guru who puts out snow reports.  Expectations for the La Nina winter this year could easily have been put into perspective from experiences of last year's La Nina.  However, the long dry cold spell (with bullet proof snow) throughout January and into Feb. were long forgotten because of the dramatic snowfalls just after that spell.  Maybe this is how a La Nina plays out in the current era.

Fact is this year's La Nina may well play out very similar to last though offset by just a couple weeks (happily).  

What should not be forgotten is how the bullet proof base layer laid down in the early season lead to very unstable avalanche conditions that persisted for much of the rest of the lengthened ski season.  The poor bonding to the current year concrete will likely have the same issues.

Alan

Although actual snowpack depth is above normal almost everywhere at the moment, I think snow-water equivalent is still below normal in many places. Paradise, for example is still 7-8" below the 40yr average for SWEq.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that nearly half of the current depth is unconsolidated fluff. In a week or two, we'll see how deep it still is.

Although actual snowpack depth is above normal almost everywhere at the moment, I think snow-water equivalent is still below normal in many places.  Paradise, for example is still 7-8" below the 40yr average for SWEq.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that nearly half of the current depth is unconsolidated fluff.  In a week or two, we'll see how deep it still is.

Yes, what he said......we may have more depth at this moment then we had last year but it hasn't settled yet.  Snowfall total we are still behind last season at Snoqualmie Pass by about 20" by my unofficial count. 

Evaluating the amount of settling of the current snowpack in a week or two will be rather difficult if it continues to precipitate on top of the current snowpack. I think the water equivalent is a better measure. On the other hand even that is not all that great a measure, since we can't know how much water drained from the concrete snowpack that we had at this time last year.

If I remember correctly, things did not really restart in earnest until the second week of Feb. last year, so maybe we should be comparing snowpack equivalents in two weeks.

Since I am not a farmer, water equivalents don't much matter to me. I ski snow. And if that snow happens to be low water equivalent deep stuff, then I guess I can suffer through such a period.

If the current weather pattern remains active as it did once it got restarted last year, I don't think we will be too worried about the remainder of the season.