Upper Nisqually channel migration

OK, this has a bit of a political overtone, but as the opponents (at uppernisqually.org ) of Pierce County's flood plan for the area maintain that the designation of a severe channel migration zone (CMZ) there may affect access to MRNP, it seems appropriate to cast some sharp eyes (and perhaps wicked tongues), here.

Personally, in the absence of a clear understanding to the above point, I'm more concerned about the couple of locations where the in-Park roadway grade is (or appears to be) below the very nearby channel of the Nisqually.  Still, if access to the MRNP gate area is through, or otherwise affected by the CMZ, it is theoretically possible to lose the entrance - of course, a significant flood event could do the same thing..

It appears that the major contention is the impact to local commerce and other property rights of locals (I may be among the affected, but am a bit further downstream..).  I'm considering joining the citizens group, but not there yet.

Anybody with experience with property rights land grab or specific geological/hydrological knowledge relevant to this location care to comment about the likelyhood of either of the above events occurring?

You might start here for the County's perspective and a less politically charged version of what they're proposing.

www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/services/home/environ/water/cip/cmz.htm

I am thoroughly familiar with the situation.  Pierce County Surface Water Management (SWM) contracted with a consultant to do an analysis of the potential for channel migration along the upper Nisqually River.  They have, and will be, doing CM analysis on other rivers.  The consultants concluded that the area from the old Sunshine Point Campground to several miles west of the Nisqually Entrance to MRNP should be declared a "severe channel migration zone", which means that it is expected that the river would change course and invade that area within 10 years.  The area includes the Entrance gate and historic buildings, State Route 706, the Tourist Commercial Zone (the strip of resorts along SR706), the high-density residential subdivision of Nisqually Park, and some houses outside Nisqually Park.  The CMZ also includes Alpine Village (just off Kernahan Road which leads to Skate Creek Road), parts of Kernahan Road, Kernahan Bridge across the Nisqually River, and (but not to be addressed by Pierce County) various properties in Paradise Village and along Skate Creek Road in Lewis County.  The CMZ goes south of Ashford and reappears in severe fashion in Elbe where both SR 7 and SR 706 are deemed to be at severe risk.

Thus, the consultants identified 3 key roadways that offer access to MRNP: SR 706 at the Entrance, Skate Creek-Kernahan Road (Packwood to the Nisqually Entrance) and SR 7 at Elbe (SR 7, of course, is the only road to the Nisqually Entrance from Oly-Tacoma-Seattle and from US12 Morton to the entrance).

A citizens' group formed to review the study and its implications and held community meetings with Surface Water Management etc.  Their reports and activities led the County Council to places the zoning on hold (SWM had tried to declare a CMZ on their own but that is beyond their authority) and convened a citizens review committee and later relegated the process to the new County Flood Plan.  During both these processes citizens felt they weren't heard; that SWM is focused on the Puyallup, large sections of the Puyallup were exempted from CM designtation, etc. etc.

The 1st bone of contention, is that the CMZ analysis did not consider the levee that leads from SR706 in the park where Sunshine Point used to be to 1/2 mile outside the park [they assumed it provided no protection at all].  This levee has been in existence since the mid 1960s and was specifically designed and built to protect the entrance station, SR706, the associated businesses and residences constructed in response to the Park's request to provide tourist support and services outside the Park (NPS Mission 66).  The 2nd bone of contention is that SWM has not done any formal analysis of the capability of the levee relative to 100-year floods (if it qualifies as a 100-year levee, then it must be considered under the law; it does qualify as an Army Corps of Engineers Rehabilitated Levee).  The 3rd, and most important bone of contention, is that these residents of the upper Nisqually do not consider loss of the Nisqually Entrance or even a decision that such a loss is an acceptable alternative to management of the levee and the river to be an acceptable option.  The 4th bone of contention, now somewhat offset by the forthcoming flood plan, is that these residents would like to see the upper Nisqually River ecologically restored to the condition it was before the 1947 Kautz mudflow--it was a beautiful river bounded by old-growth forests supporting diverse aquatic life (and of course associated riparian species including the threatened marbled murrelet and spotted owl), and was a premier trout fishing stream.

In 1947, 1.5 miles of the low Kautz Glacier broke up, formed a mudflow, and blocked the Nisqually River main channel for several days.  The runout from the mudflow inundated a major part of the Nisqually glacial valley, silting in the trees.  The landowners then logged the dying trees.  This clearcutting removed the stabilizing structures for the river bed, now filled with mudflow sediment (enough to fill 1/3 of Alder Reservoir).  Subsequently, large rainstorms, rain on  snow events, and minor glacial outbursts eroded the sediment, eroded the intact banks of riparian forest, and resulted in an unstable channel (quite wide) across which the river now migrates.  I believe some of the consultants' analyses were flawed because they did not distinguish between U-shaped glacial valley filled with alpine glacial till and a V-shaped river valley with river silts, sands, gravel, and cobble; so they considered the entire valley to have previously been river bed.  Nor did they address mudflow runout channels vs. river bed.

In any case, if anyone is still reading at this point, a disclosure.  I have been an active member/adviser of the Upper Nisqually Citizens Committee and I am now a Director of the newly formed  non-profit organization "Citizens Supporting the Upper Nisqually River".  I am also a formal advisor to the Nisqually Land Trust on acquiring ecologically important lands in the upper Nisqually.  I am also an advsior to a new group dedicated to forming a community forest in the upper Nisqually.  I am, and have been, on the ski patrol of the Mount Tahoma Ski Trails System,  which would also be affected if Kernahan Bridge is lost. I have a cabin in Nisqually Park (which has had homes for more than 100 years including that of the first MRNP Superintendent; some homes extant today date from the 1940s, the subdivision from the mid 60s).  My interest are in the restoration of the riverine ecosystem and ensuring access to MRNP.  I am retired Pacific Northwest Research Station Research Wildlife Biologist; I directed Forest Service and BLM research on old-growth forest wildlife, including the northern spotted owl and have served as a scientific expert in court proceedings and reviews panels on such.  I am also expert on forest and landscape restoration.  Other members of the non-profit are home owners, business owners, resort owners, and state and federal employees.

...
Anybody with experience with property rights land grab ... relevant to this location care to comment about the likelyhood of either of the above events occurring?

I found this recent email to Citizens Supporting the Upper Nisqually River pertinent to the question David raises:

"Greetings ... Upper Nisqually Group,

It's always been said that everyone has a story.  I'd like to share with you, mine.....

   Back in the late 1960's & early 1970's,  my mom and I would take small day trips around the
Northwest from our home in Tacoma.  We would often drive up towards the Mountain and look for
the wildlife and enjoy the green trees and scenery.  We would drive thru the new Nisqually Park area
and see the deer,  on our way up into the Park.  We also always saw the 'Lots for Sale' sign.  We
never had much money so we could only dream of a get away cabin in the woods.

   My mom passed away in June,  1973,  when I was only 17.  I always remembered the drives to
Mt. Rainier.  In the early 1980's,  I continued to take those drives.  One day I heard of a co-worker
of my brother's who was selling a piece of property,  in all places,  Nisqually Park,  right at those Park
gates.  After coming up with a price,  I said yes and started making my payments.  All the while always
knowing that some day we'd build a small little cabin,  like we started seeing sprouting up in the area.
I remember that there was a water system in the Park,  ... ,  and of course there
was a power pole on the street beside the property.

   I think it was about the early 1990's,  I started to think about building that cabin.  I started checking into
it and found that different restrictions were starting to be placed on my dream.  Not having all that much
money at that time,  I had to wait.  We still would drive up to the property and just walk around.  We had
different conversations with the original founder of the Park,  ...  and he had
mentioned moritoriums and different restrictions that would prevent me from building that cabin. 

   I remember one time I was told I could now only put a travel trailer on the lot which could only be on there
from about April to mid October,  and then had to move it off.  I never thought that was a good idea.  With
my luck,  someone would go up their and hook up the trailer and head on down the road.

... I was so disappointed by now that I almost
sold the Lot.  I remember speaking to a Real Estate agent who's office was in Eatonville.  (Saw his signs
up around the Nisqually area and so I thought he would be the best person to speak with - just don't
remember his name now).  I was basically told that there was no value left to the property because of all
of the restrictions placed on the Park.  Flood areas,  etc.

   From there,  for the last 15+ years I have continued to pay my property taxes on sometihng that was for
a dream that never came true.  Over the years,  we have driven up there less frequently,  and now sometimes
I would wonder about the property as I continued to make my annual tax payments.

   Just this last weekend,  Lynn and I decided to go for a drive up towards the Mountain,  to the north side.
Before I knew it,  we had driven basically around the whole park and was only about 4 miles from the property
and decided to stop by.  A few years ago,  we followed the news that the river ran so large that areas along
the river up there had been washed away,  from a camp site just up in the Park,  all down thru the Nisqually
Park area and continued further down.  So,  I didn't know what to expect to see.  Even had the fear of seeing
that someone would have stolen the timber on the land.... just didn't know what to expect.

   After turning off of Skate Creek Road,  we headed to the property.  To my amazement,  Nisqually Park was
still there!  So was my property.  So were the trees.  So were the deer, too.  We saw alot of the cabins lit up
with people around.  It wasn't the ghost area that I was given the impression was going to happen to the area.
... After reading ... about this continued
threat of this County CMZ (Channel Migration Zone)  I have no idea where I stand.

   Whatever happened to the dream that someday I wanted to build a small little cabin (just 300 or 400 sq. ft.)?
To know that it's like my property that I have owned for going on 30 years,  is meaningless to these County
officials.  The same people who have zero vested interest in this and could care less about one person's dream!
I still dream about that cabin.

   Now where do I go?  Never had much in my life,  except for this small little piece of vacation property that I love
so dearly.  As I mentioned,  everyone has a story.   

Your welcome to share this with whoever you would like to hear about my dreams.  You can even send it to these
un-caring County officials who want to take it all away."