El Nino setting up in the Pacific

Ugh.

www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monit...visory/ensodisc.html

I wonder if the effects of El Nino didn't already start to show up around October 15 of 2008. At that time we went from a dominant zonal flow to a repeating pattern of Rex Blocks and cut-off Lows that obviously still continues at this time.

I think either of two cases are possible: 1) That the weather patterns characteristic of El Ninos (and of course, also La Ninas) show up before their manifestations in changes of tropical surface water temperatures or 2) That the current El Nino will be superimposed on an already very dry pattern that has been in existence since fall of 2008 (for some other meteorological reason).

The latter interpretation is the scariest scenario and could be very, very dry. In any case the frequency and duration of dry periods beginning last fall are essentially record setting.

I have to wonder whether more frequent El Ninos as opposed to La Ninas won't be the biggest effect of global warming in this area - much more so than the rise of temperature of a degree or two Celsius.

Anti-Jinx, ANit-Jinx, Anti-Jinx!.
Dont't you guys know the rules by now??? :
Jeez, you can't start talking about the next season without jinxing it, everybody knows that!

I have to wonder whether more frequent El Ninos as opposed to La Ninas won't be the biggest effect of global warming in this area - much more so than the rise of temperature of a degree or two Celsius.

According to the el-nino.com website there does not seem to be any increase number of elnino to lanina years from long ago to present. From 1930-1970 they report 12 El Nino and 6 La Nina seasons. From 1971-Current the numbers are 12 El Nino to 8 La Nina seasons. Fairly consistant it seems.
FWIW....

According to the el-nino.com website there does not seem to be any increase number of elnino to lanina years from long ago to present.  From 1930-1970 they report 12 El Nino and 6 La Nina seasons.  From 1971-Current the numbers are 12 El Nino to 8 La Nina seasons.  Fairly consistant it seems.
  FWIW....

That set of facts doesn't tell the whole story, though. Note the 4th graph on this page (I've seen this one before) icecap.us/images/uploads/The_La_Nina_and_Global_Cooling.pdf
Notice that the strongest el ninos since 1880 have been in the past 25 years and that since the mid-70's the number and especially strength and duration of la ninas are at a long term minimum. Now the author of this website makes the claim that this is associated with the PDO (Pacific Dicadel Oscillation) however it is not very clear that we will go back into another cool stage of the PDO. It - the cool phase of the PDO - is considerably overdue.