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Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches?

  • dkoelle
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16 years 9 months ago #187079 by dkoelle
Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches? was created by dkoelle
From the Rainier forecast link from this very site, referring to Wed night and Thur:

Tonight: Snow. Low around 16. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 21 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow showers, mainly before 11am. High near 25. Windy, with a west wind between 23 and 33 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

WOW.  Does not seem to quite agree with the more generic central Cascades forecast.  I was hoping to attempt Nisqually "to the bridge" for the first time this weekend, but if it snows this much....

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  • Charlie Hagedorn
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16 years 9 months ago #187080 by Charlie Hagedorn
Replied by Charlie Hagedorn on topic Re: Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches?
I suspect you're looking at the point forecast. See

www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboardi...91.msg54655#msg54655

and

www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

for grains of salt. Would make for sweet turns early in the day though, if true.

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  • dkoelle
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16 years 9 months ago #187082 by dkoelle
Replied by dkoelle on topic Re: Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches?
Now it says

Tonight: Snow. Low around 13. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

This does seem to be an estimate for the summit of Rainier per the accompanying map

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  • markharf
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16 years 9 months ago #187084 by markharf
Replied by markharf on topic Re: Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches?
The inaccuracies of the point forecasts, which apparently rely on an inadequate set of inputs to modify the more general forecasts, were discussed in the thread linked above. This doesn't alter the fact that a foot or more of snowfall is not terribly unusual this time of year, even at pass elevations. I'm not following the weather carefully, but I have noted a couple of feet of fresh at Mt. Baker last week, and another foot last night. This doesn't necessarily provide good skiing--think bottomless slush and heightened avalanche risk--but it does eventually consolidate, preserving the snowpack and evening out the runnels.

Mark

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  • Charlie Hagedorn
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16 years 9 months ago - 16 years 9 months ago #186957 by Charlie Hagedorn
Replied by Charlie Hagedorn on topic Re: Did somebody say 13 to 19 inches?
Yep - I'd agree entirely that ~foot+ scale snow is definitely falling/has fallen up there now. I only recoil at the precision that the point forecasts implicitly claim.

Edit: Sure looks like it.
mms.nps.gov/mora/cam/east.jpg

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