spring avy forecast from nwac

Is it ever going to end?

Bring it on! But be safe out there guys/gals.

Chris

BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE STATEMENT FOR THE OLYMPICS WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND MT HOOD AREA
NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
100 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2008

NWAC Program administered by:
USDA-Forest Service
with cooperative funding and support from:
Washington State Department of Transportation
National Weather Service
National Park Service
Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission
Pacific Northwest Ski Area Association
Friends of the Avalanche Center
and other private organizations.

This statement applies to back country avalanche terrain below
7000 feet and does not apply to highways or operating ski
areas.

WAZ513-518-519-019-042-501-502-ORZ011-082100-

&&

...SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOW EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
FRIDAY...

A low pressure system is moving northwest to southeast over
western Washington on Friday. This is causing unusual, cool
and snowy weather in the Olympics and Cascades. About 10
inches of new snow has fallen on Thursday night and Friday
morning at higher elevations in the Cascades as estimated from
precipitation measurements. The ranger at Paradise on Mt
Rainier reported 10 inches of snow Friday morning. Similar
amounts are possible at higher passes such as Chinook Pass.
Very little has been seen lower highway pass elevations at
Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes.

The snow showers and cool temperatures should continue on
Friday especially in the central and south Cascades. This
should lead to more snow especially in the central and south
Cascades. Another 5-10 inches seems likely at higher
elevations on Friday and Friday night especially in the
central and south Cascades. Similar amounts are possible at
higher passes such as Chinook Pass. Little if any should
continue to accumulate at lower highway pass elevations at
Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes.

Slightly improved weather should be seen over the weekend.
Daytime sun breaks are possible and there will be solar
effects on the new snow. This should make natural or triggered
wet loose or slab avalanches probable on some slopes at higher
elevations. This may be most likely on steep slopes facing the
sun but should be probable on other steep slopes as well. Boot
or ski penetration of more than a few inches or poor ski
conditions are good indicators of increasing potential for wet
snow avalanches. Do not underestimate the danger and power of
slow moving wet snow avalanches. Remember to evaluation snow
conditions for yourself and that conditions may be less or
more safe than expected.

Fatal avalanche accidents have occurred during past springs in
the Northwest from people getting caught in wet snow
avalanches. Sometimes victims are carried into terrain traps
such as trees, gullies or crevasses. Remember to be aware of
both the terrain above and below intended routes in the
backcountry.

Another weather system, similar to that of Friday, is
currently indicated for Monday. This should cause more
unusual, cool and snowy weather. But take heart, summer always
arrives in the Northwest by July 12. Have a safe and enjoyable
spring!

&&

Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and
geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition
zone between dangers exists. Remember there are avalanche
safe areas in the mountains during all levels of avalanche
danger. Contact local authorities in your area of interest
for further information.

NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling
206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood
area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us . Also note
that field snowpack information is often available on the FOAC
website at www.avalanchenw.org , and weather and avalanche
glossaries for commonly used terms in the forecasts can be
found on the NWAC education page.

Ferber/Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center

$$

"But take heart, summer always arrives in the Northwest by July 12. Have a safe and enjoyable
spring!"

It's refreshing to see the NWAC folks have a healthy sense of humor.

"But take heart, summer always arrives in the Northwest by July 12. Have a safe and enjoyable
spring!"

It's refreshing to see the NWAC folks have a healthy sense of humor.

It is funny that NWAC should make that statement. June 5/08 matched a record for the lowest high temperature for that date in the Vancouver,B.C. area (barely 50 F). After discussing this cold , wet June weather with a neighbour, I concluded the conversation by mentioning that, historically, summer usually arrives in the second week of July and then often stays until September.

"But take heart, summer always arrives in the Northwest by July 12. Have a safe and enjoyable
spring!"

It's refreshing to see the NWAC folks have a healthy sense of humor.

The July 12 thing is an old joke in the Seattle NOAA office. You'll hear it any time we have June weather like this, especially if the July 4 weekend looks bad. I believe there is a climatological basis for it. The jet stream really does adjust to a summer pattern around that time. Garth could probably say more.

I have a hairbrained theory that springs like this are the payback we owe for big, snowy winters. You get your hopes up for an awesome long spring of skiing--with all that snow in the mountains--and you end up with weeks of clouds and drizzle right when you were hoping to do a big ski trip. I clearly remember this in 1991 and 1999 and I think you could find other examples.

This morning's NOAA weather discussion was interesting:

FXUS66 KSEW 071036
AFDSEW 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
335 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2008 

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  TODAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL  CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SATURDAY  NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A  DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL  SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA  MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.   

&& 

.SHORT TERM...SINCE I COULD SEE MY BREATH ON THE WAY IN TO WORK LAST  NIGHT I DECIDED TO LOOK UP THE RECORDS FOR COLD JUNES. SURE  ENOUGH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES  TODAY...THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST FIRST WEEK OF JUNE ON RECORD  IN SEATTLE INCLUDING THE FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO  1891. LOOK FOR A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING  FOR THE COMPLETE DETAILS.....

For what it's worth, the weather summary is talking about cloud tops between 6K and 9K. Go high! (and be careful)

This one was posted last weekend:

SOME CLIMATE THOUGHTS...IF YOU HAVE BEEN THINKING IT HAS BEEN A COOL SPRING...WELL YOU ARE RIGHT. AS RECORDED AT THE SEATAC AIRPORT...MARCH AVERAGED 2.7 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH APRIL 3.2 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. FOR MAY...IF YOU REMOVE THE 4 DAY HEAT WAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...WE WERE ABOUT 1.15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. (THE HEAT WAVE BROUGHT US UP TO A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL) WHAT ABOUT JUNE YOU ASK? WELL USING THE FORECAST TEMPS FOR THE FIRST 8 DAYS OF JUNE WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT 3.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE CLIMATE CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF JUNE...COOLER THAN NORMAL. AND THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...YOU GUESSED IT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVERALL. THE UPSHOT KEEP THE LAWN MOVER SHARP THIS SUMMER. THE GRASS WILL LOVE IT. CERNIGLIA

At Crystal 6.7.08 the new snow consolidated on the underlain corn snow. Not very deep ski penetration, I would say 3 inches max, but very brief periods of that. No slides mostly rollers on top surface that amounted to nothing. Sun exposed areas did not show any signs of slides, larger snow rollers that did not cause slides. Sticky snow on lower angles, great skiing on steeper slopes. Still would keep avalanche eyes on, if you are knocking rollers down on your buddies below. Not a lot of cornices left at least where we were.