Late Spring/Summer Avalanche Hazard

Gary or others, in consideration of Gary's ominous forecast, do you have advice that is specific to the Easton Glacier route on Baker?  We have a planned trip where we are expecting to set out from camp somewhere above 6k at about midnight Saturday with a target summit time of between 6 and 7 AM Saturday.

I won't predict whether you could ski the Easton Glacier safely on Sat-Sun. I'm reluctant to offer that advice here.

But I'm certain that if you'd like to climb and ski Mt Baker with good corn snow, it would be better to go later in the spring.

I had forgot about the January discussion. If I remember right, it was shortly after that discussion, maybe early Feb, when there was a warmer cycle that brought some big slides and all the highways were closed. After that period settled down I relaxed a bit about the buried layers and skied more open slopes than I had earlier in the season. The warming this week is dramatic so it will be interesting to see if any of the week layers remained a problem after those climax slides in Feb.

Here's a link to last January's discussion about potential spring hazard. I let my imagination run wild regarding the worst-case scenario for spring avalanches here . I don't know if you'd call this week's situation worst-case, but it is interesting.

I'd guess those predictions you made last January may prove rather accurate.  may be a good wknd for other outdoor activities.

I'd guess those predictions you made last January may prove rather accurate.  may be a good wknd for other outdoor activities.

Looks like they were spot on. From NWAC:

This upcoming hot weather is expected to cause a widespread
spring avalanche cycle in most areas starting Thursday. The
relatively prolonged hot weather should melt and weaken
significant near surface snow and allow melt water to possibly
percolate to deeper older weak layers. This is most likely on
slopes facing the sun but should also be likely on any steep
aspects. Deep avalanches are possible. Some slides may release
to or near the ground, involving the entire winter’s snowpack.
The expected large wet snow avalanches may travel very fast
and run long distances, possibly to lower elevations where
little or no snow cover may remain or to valley floors.

We do not recommend back country travel near any avalanche
terrain Thursday and Friday and possibly through the weekend.
Initially small wet loose avalanches may trigger large and
deeper wet loose or wet slab avalanches. Back country
travelers should also avoid slopes below cornices or gullies
and flat areas below avalanche run out zones. A lack of
refreezing at night may contribute to the avalanche cycle.
Remember that boot or ski penetration of more than a few
inches can indicate snow is becoming significantly unstable on
steep slopes.

Glad the NW Avalanche Center put out a special bulletin, I expected they would.

The snowpack is not nearly as well consolidated as usual for this time of year and now comes record or near record high temperatures, so I would think looking at this before it happens, it should be pretty much a worse case scenario. In my recollection I don't recall such a dramatic shift from persistent cool early and mid-spring conditions to such dramatic and intense heating. Whether or not and how frequently the slides go to the deeper snowpack (February - at least, remember it didn't snow much for 5-6 weeks so the pack consolidated then) is anybody's guess, but some of the slides should involve much of spring's snows. The slides could be slabs, but even wet loose slides in this situation are a major concern because of the probability of a lot of entrainment. The other really bad layer is the early December layer.

East of the crest the snowpack is weaker, in some areas down to the ground. I was surprised in March to find heavily faceted snow at the base of Blewett Pass's snowpack. The faceting was much more pronounced than normal, despite more than average winter cloudiness. So, in areas east of the crest without deep snowpack, it wouldn't be surprising to see those slides go to the ground.

Current models now show a pretty good drop in the freezing level Tuesday but possibly warmer weather again late next week. It will take more than a day or so of cooler weather to help stabilize things after this dramatic ramp up in temperatures.

...this is second hand info but i figured i'd post it anyways.... a friend of mine who was just up high on Rainier over the past few days trying to get in a climb described conditions on the upper mountain as 'waist deep wallowing' and said the glaciers haven't been refreezing at night.

I really wanted to ski Rainier this weekend...but gonna opt for some quality time on my surfboard instead.