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Relaxed Avalanche concerns?
- Joedabaker
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18 years 1 month ago - 18 years 1 month ago #180308
by Joedabaker
Relaxed Avalanche concerns? was created by Joedabaker
I went out last Saturday for a short local safe tour in the woods by Crystal. Much of where I wanted to really go was surrounded by concerns of slab avalanches, potential deeper slides in open, steeper terrain.
I was breaking trail (slogging) when I started putting in switches in the trees in the higher elevations 5600ft I noticed small propagation on the top layer 8 to 12 inches of snow as the pitch increased to 30 degrees on SE and N-NE aspects. We skied in the tighter trees leaving the exposed bowls alone, while traveling a good distance from potential run out zone (worse case scenario).
The forecast that day called for High Danger, but I was on the supersafe tour.
The next day, Bluebird day cold morning, avalanche danger dropped to considerable.
I skied in the Crystal area but noticed a load of fresh tracks on the S and SW aspects of East Peak. Skin tracks all over some pretty safe routes in the trees on the SW side, but had to maybe cross under the loaded cornice on the ridge. One skier actually skied under the cornice. The day before I noticed that cornice had loaded and had at least 100 ft crack 10 ft behind it.
I ski cut a couple good fracture 10 inch crown slides on N-NE aspect off of Silver King that day.
Boot has a picture in his tour to Goat Island that shows snow falling off trees and creating a huge slab avalanche.
I guess my question is what changed so dramatically in one day that makes people feel relaxed about the avalanche concerns?
Is it the sunshine?
The reports of lower danger?
Snow pits evaluations?
Being held hostage to high avalanche danger?
Not a lot of people have been in the exposed BC lately, but yesterday had me thinking, what has changed?
What's your take?
Joe
I was breaking trail (slogging) when I started putting in switches in the trees in the higher elevations 5600ft I noticed small propagation on the top layer 8 to 12 inches of snow as the pitch increased to 30 degrees on SE and N-NE aspects. We skied in the tighter trees leaving the exposed bowls alone, while traveling a good distance from potential run out zone (worse case scenario).
The forecast that day called for High Danger, but I was on the supersafe tour.
The next day, Bluebird day cold morning, avalanche danger dropped to considerable.
I skied in the Crystal area but noticed a load of fresh tracks on the S and SW aspects of East Peak. Skin tracks all over some pretty safe routes in the trees on the SW side, but had to maybe cross under the loaded cornice on the ridge. One skier actually skied under the cornice. The day before I noticed that cornice had loaded and had at least 100 ft crack 10 ft behind it.
I ski cut a couple good fracture 10 inch crown slides on N-NE aspect off of Silver King that day.
Boot has a picture in his tour to Goat Island that shows snow falling off trees and creating a huge slab avalanche.
I guess my question is what changed so dramatically in one day that makes people feel relaxed about the avalanche concerns?
Is it the sunshine?
The reports of lower danger?
Snow pits evaluations?
Being held hostage to high avalanche danger?
Not a lot of people have been in the exposed BC lately, but yesterday had me thinking, what has changed?
What's your take?
Joe
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- Charlie Hagedorn
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18 years 1 month ago #180313
by Charlie Hagedorn
Replied by Charlie Hagedorn on topic Re: Relaxed Avalance concerns?
I had a similar sense on my way up toward Pan Point yesterday - Lots of interesting cross-loading both ways, a not entirely rightside up snowpack, a recent history of weak layers at many depths, a skin track right up Pan face and one up the "winter line", and no obvious sign that anyone had done any stability analysis beyond some ski pole testing. I'm not saying it was wrong to head up, but how'd y'all conclude that instability was low enough to scurry straight up the hill?
I checked out a number of test slopes, jumped on a few, dug a shallow pit and a number of wee hand-pits. After all that, I wasn't totally sold on stability, especially lower down in the snowpack. Had we not turned around at the base of the winter line for other reasons, I'd have booted and skinned the winter line up, but not without quite a bit of caution. In TAY's opinion (I'll keep my own
), was I being too cautious? Pan face certainly looked fun for both the trip up and the way home.
Beauty of a day.
I checked out a number of test slopes, jumped on a few, dug a shallow pit and a number of wee hand-pits. After all that, I wasn't totally sold on stability, especially lower down in the snowpack. Had we not turned around at the base of the winter line for other reasons, I'd have booted and skinned the winter line up, but not without quite a bit of caution. In TAY's opinion (I'll keep my own
Beauty of a day.
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- savegondor
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18 years 1 month ago #180326
by savegondor
Replied by savegondor on topic Re: Relaxed Avalance concerns?
My take is that NWAC guys do a good job of reading TAY and other message boards and letting that affect their avi forcasts. However, a consistent theme is that they are always emphasizing the overall dangerous structure of the snowpack ESPECIALLY around cornices and windloaded lee slopes. In these places the consolidation process that has made it safe in other places may not have taken place.
In my view that "weak" layer over the December rain crust may still exist on the slope you were talking about up by the cornice. (or it may not). But either way I'm personally avoiding those 'start zones'...or if I do go near them within reasonable risk, I'm going one at a time (if I have a large party). I think it is quite probable at this point that while some slopes might rate 'considerable' you add a couple more skiers to that load up by the cornice and you may get one of those neat 10 crowns.
Same with highpointing with snow machines. What might be relatively safe with 200 pounds might not be with 600lbs.
In my view that "weak" layer over the December rain crust may still exist on the slope you were talking about up by the cornice. (or it may not). But either way I'm personally avoiding those 'start zones'...or if I do go near them within reasonable risk, I'm going one at a time (if I have a large party). I think it is quite probable at this point that while some slopes might rate 'considerable' you add a couple more skiers to that load up by the cornice and you may get one of those neat 10 crowns.
Same with highpointing with snow machines. What might be relatively safe with 200 pounds might not be with 600lbs.
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