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Cloud level forecasts

  • jlk
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18 years 8 months ago #178319 by jlk
Cloud level forecasts was created by jlk
Does anyone know of a good source for cloud level forecasts?  For example, I'd like to know if Camp Muir will be in the clouds or above the clouds.  I occasionally see cloud levels mentioned in the aviation section of the forecast discussion , but that is much too short-term to be of use.  I'm looking for a 24 or 48 hour prediction.

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  • Merk
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18 years 8 months ago #178320 by Merk
Replied by Merk on topic Re: Cloud level forecasts
I'll 2nd that question. I've been meaning to ask as well, but I didn't think about an aviation forecast (makes sense). Thanks

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  • Nate R
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18 years 8 months ago - 18 years 8 months ago #178336 by Nate R
Replied by Nate R on topic Re: Cloud level forecasts
I imagine a pilot could answer that more definitively, but I think the best you can do is a 12-hour airport forecast. It's not 100% useful, but can help a bit with planning, and it's kinda interesting. I've used this site:
iPilot.com

If you select a city, it brings up a pretty good summary, including the predicted cloud ceiling. I think they occasionally mention the cloud deck, but that must be harder to forecast b/c I don't see it very often.

For the details of the forecast, click on the METAR or TAF link on the left. This page:
METAR decoder
explains how to interpret the crazy report language.
Example: it currently says METAR KSEA 160453Z 02005KT 10SM FEW045 BKN060 16/09 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP168 T01610094
Which, I think says the Seatac airport is forecasting for the 16th up to 4:53am, wind direction 020 degrees at 5 knots, visibility 10 miles, few clouds at 4500 feet and broken clouds at 6000 feet.

I notice the TAF now decodes the report for you, which is cool. I think all the forecasts are only for the following 12 hours, that's why they're not super useful for every occasion.

I don't totally get the difference between METAR and TAF, but I found this explanation:
METAR - Meteorological Aeronautical Report. Also referred to as an Actual. A METAR is a coded weather bulletin of the observed weather at a specific location
TAF - Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. A detailed forecast of expected weather elements at an aerodrome that significantly affects the movement of aircraft.

So I guess TAF would be the most useful one to check, especially since they actually decode it for you. But keep in mind this is coming from a very non-aviationally trained person. ;)

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  • ski_photomatt
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18 years 8 months ago #178337 by ski_photomatt
Replied by ski_photomatt on topic Re: Cloud level forecasts
You can look at twice daily model forecasted cloud cover, precipitation, temperature, winds, etc at a UW MM5 model website, www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt . Click on MM5-GFS or NAM and then choose the product you'd like to see. One caveat to remember is that you are looking directly at the model output. The models are likely to have the synoptic scale, (1000 km) correct, but getting the meso-scale (100 km) correct is a lot harder. Predicting things like cloud cover is even harder, so you should take a product like "Cloud amount from 3K-10K ft" with a grain of salt. That said, I find the model output extremely instructive and fun to watch.

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  • mej
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18 years 8 months ago #178340 by mej
Replied by mej on topic Re: Cloud level forecasts
I use the MM5 output for clouds occaisionally, and was stated above, they need to be taken with a grain of salt.  The 36km grids are generally good to give you a rough opicture of what to expect, but I have found the 12 km to be questionable both temporally and spatially.  One thing that the 12 km can do an ok job at is to indicate when a marine push will bring in a low stratus deck that will leave Seattle ugly and the mountains sunny and warm.

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  • jlk
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18 years 7 months ago #178376 by jlk
Replied by jlk on topic Re: Cloud level forecasts
Thanks for the links. I hadn't seen those before. It looks like there are 4 km domain cloud water forecasts available for the MM5-GFS and WRF-GFS models. The 4 km domain forecasts are available 48 hours out vs. 72 hours for the 12 km and 36 km domains. It will be interesting to watch and see how the forecasts compare to reality.

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