question for the avy pros out there

I was curious as to why the avy danger saturday and sunday was 'considerable' instead of 'high' or 'extreme'? I would imagine, with the rain crust with quite a bit of new snow with poor bonding, and wind a higher rating would be called for. It may just be localized, but around skyline ridge saturday and sunday saw some of the most natural and triggered activity of the days i've been out, including some high and extreme days.

Just wondering about the thought process of the ratings, insight would be awsome!

Yeah, I would say conditions were worse than most "high" days I've been out, yet the rating was just "moderate" (below 5000ft... an elevation which we never even reached).

First off, I am a far cry from an expert, however I like to think I have learned a little bit and am learning every time I go out.
Saturday, where I was in the Crystal backcountry it was pretty solid, couldn't get anything to go even with big ski cuts. Same day, other side of the ridge, others reported a couple of slides. In the Steven's Pass area it sounded really, really spicy.
With the conditions that we have had in the last couple of weeks; extended cold, some warming, wind events, some sunny days and snowfall scattered throughout. Forecasting is very localized in the avalanche world. I am 100% confident in the snowpack in the exact location of my pit at the moment that I am there. 10 feet in any direction and it can be really different. Those folks at the Avalanche Center have a tough job in the best of conditions, and it is even tougher when we have the variety of weather events in the last few weeks.
Hits home the need to do your due dilligence and dig the pits and watch out for each other.

I am also not even close to an expert but heres my 2 cents. The raincrust was fairly thick, which in some cases can almost have the effect of providing a "clean slate" for the snowpack, at least acording to Gary Brill. Since the crust is dense and durable, fracturing it can be difficult, even under a lot of load. In the case of new accumulations of less cohesive snow on the crust, the probability of deep slabs fracturing decreases as the crust provides some sort of protection. although it does provide a great surface for slides. I was also out during the period that you mentioned, and found it hard to break through the crusts, and most slides I saw were point releases of the new snow on steeps and small slab formation on the crust, but only up to depths of a few inches and took a good effort to get it going. So the potential for those scary big ass hard slabs is somewhat negated by the crust leaving the most likely slides to occur in the surface snow: smaller soft slabs and point releases. Hope that made a little sense, at least thats how I've learned it and my understanding. Doesn;t mean its safe though......

A "considerable" rating means that natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Is that so different from what was observed over the weekend? Could it be that we've become complacent about what "considerable" means?

In his avy classes in the 1980s, Ray Smutek liked to point out that you could end up "moderately dead" on a moderate hazard day. He had a good point. The hazard ratings involve uncertainty and the people who assign them are only human.

Also, there was quite a bit of variation in the hazard last weekend. Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass received a rain crust (freezing fog) on Thursday night, and I think that's what many of the weekend slides were running on. The NWAC forecast mentioned this, but you had to read the snowpack analysis. I suspect that they applied the considerable rating as sort of a broadbrush to cover the range of conditions out there over the weekend. But what do I know...

Danger was rated moderate, not considerable.
From other reports, it seems like the sketchy conditions were fairly localized to stevens pass. There also wasn't much of a crust. The layer the new snow was sliding on where I was (about 12 inches down) wasn't much (if at all) denser than the upper layer. Whatever it was sliding on so easily was invisible to the naked eye/hand. Maybe it was an ultra-thin freezing rain crust.

It reminded me of a day a few years ago where 3 inches of snow were forecast, but instead more than 20 fell in a period of a few hours. I think a snowshoer got burried at alpental that day. Totally different conditions from Saturday, but the point is it was a day where your idea of what "normal behaviour" for the snowpack (even on considerable/high days) had to be thrown away, because you kept getting suprised and creeped out. The standard algorithm for identifying potential dangerous slopes fell apart.

The skiing was excellent though!