Avi experiences

When one looks at avalanche accidents or one's own avalanches, close calls, or surprises it is obvious that mistakes leading to these events probably fall into a few categories:

1) Lack of avalanche awareness. The individual or party didn't really have enough knowledge to avoid even basic mistakes. My early involvements and near involvements were of this nature, as I am sure most everyone's are.

2) Lack of knowledge. Here's the problem, the amount of knowledge to avoid avalanches using knowledge alone would be something like X-ray vision where one could see the entire snowpack structure simultaneously and even be able to understand the physics given the structure. Guides and experienced individuals are subject to this same problem. They have more knowledge so they avoid most pitfalls but they also have more exposures.....Knowledge is most helpful in arming one with a good set of questions to ask on a particular day, a realistic assessment of terrain, and mitigation methods.

3) Failure to focus on a key factor. This seems to arise, and I speak from my own experience, when one doesn't take the whole set of factors into account. A classic example would be a layer of buried surface hoar, now down 2-3 feet - and no longer being seen as a major avalanche concern in forecasts. Say there has been a foot or so of new snow the past two days so the focus is accordingly on storm snow slabs. However, one can't neglect to continue to ask questions about more than just the new snow. This is ordinarily a problem when persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack, and that is true for guides as well as recreational skiers, no matter how experienced. The interesting thing is that the majority of avalanche accidents take place in Considerable hazard, and for guides, that shifts to Moderate. Guess why?

4) Negative feedback loops. Say you were going to ski Blueberry a couple of weeks ago, but initially decided against it because the hazard was rated Considerable. But, it didn't snow as much as forecast, wasn't as windy, or for some reason bonded better than forecast. So, your observations indicate that the hazard is not as bad as forecast, so you ski Blueberry. You get away with it (some of this is just probability but some is also a less significant hazard than forecast). Last week with a hazard borderline Moderate or Considerable you ski it again.....you know your stuff. This week the hazard was rated Moderate, but it snows a bit more than forecast, and Blueberry slid mid-week. The new snow didn't bond as well on Bueberry as it did on other nearby slopes (which you ski successfully). Voila....when you ski Blueberry this time you become an avalanche expert, or if unlucky an avalanche victim.

5) Hubris. To keep boldness or over-confidence from becoming an issue you probably need to establish a set of rules governing avalanche exposure and mitigation methods. Some can set those rules and stick to them and some can't. In my view there are factors one needs to acknowledge (lot's of them) and over the long run, rules one has to stick to. Statistically, all but a few accidents can be avoided, or at least most all serious consequences can be avoided.

I'd have to say some have suggested not skiing in higher hazard in winter, that is an example of a rule that will ordinarily be successful. Avoiding wind loaded slopes after a windy storm would be one I would stick with.

Human factors enter into it, too, and some of these are part of the processes described above. Group size, flexibility in planning, and communication solve many of the other problems.

~50 BC days per year, ~13 years of BC skiing.

Never been buried, but I've been caught in two:
~May 1997 - I took a ride in a 500ft or so wet slide on Parkers Ridge on the Icefields parkway. I didn't think the 4-5inches of saturated snow on top of the firm base was much to worry about. If I had skied more carefully and looked behind me to see what the snow was doing, it probably would have been easily avoidable. Lack of experience.

-September 2004. along with 2 others from this site, ragdolled down all 400ft of the Flett Headwall due to a 6 inch slab that fractured near the top. We were basically not paying much attention to avalanche conditions because of the time of year, and exercised poor protocol/route-finding

(not directly involved in, but watched)
- Heather Ridge (stevens pass) a few years ago. Some others from this site remotely triggered a 2ft slab while skinning up to the ridgeline on a high hazard day. No one was caught. I was glad I passed up on the ascent, due to the extensive whoomping everywhere. I can't explain why the others ignored the conditions.

- April 2001 - The biggest slab I've witnessed - a friend remotely triggered a 1-3ft slab that emptied out a 700ft bowl near Methow Pass. It was about 1000ft wide. We hadn't committed to skiing the bowl yet, and hadn't done any hazard evaluation yet - we were just skiing near the ridge crest looking for a good drop in point. A little lower down and we might have been caught in it. Hazard on this day was rated low or moderate, I believe. There were obvious signs of windloading in the bowl. That same day, people skied steep lines near Washington Pass without any incidents.

(may have triggered)
- about three years ago, near Granite mountain. It was a high hazard day with heavy snowfall and obvious crack propagation. We were skiing conservatively on < 25-30 degree slopes, but adjacent to a steeper bowl. After skiing a line, we looked up, and the bowl (maybe only 200ft high) had avalanched, piling debris up deep in dense trees at the bottom. It would have been easy to be teased over into the steeper slopes in the bowl, as we were skiing a sparsely treed ridge right along its edge. Thankfully none of us were.

I hope I am not jinxing myself by saying this but after 20+ years of 30+ days of skiing a year (mostly backcountry) I have yet to trigger anything real with most of that being in Colorado where things tend to be more unstable then out here. Minor surface sloughs don't count. I don't really care for the snow in the Cascades but I do appreciate the "safer" maritime snow pack here.
My recommendation is to take an avalanche awareness class (or several) when you start out, dig lots and lots of pits and practice evaluating the snowpack. Practice with your beacons as often as possible and hope to never have to do it for real. Ski with people more knowledgable then you and learn from them. (Its amazing what you can learn from talking to ski patrolers that throw bombs for a living)
And choose your terrain and conditions carefully. If things are likely to slide go ski some other aspect or just go touring or ski inbounds. I live to ski but no powder run is worth dying on. I have to many other runs that I am still planning on taking. I have talked to a friend that had been buried once. The experience of being buried, slowly suffocating, and having time to think about the decisions you made that afternoon is not an experience I want to try out for myself.
Terrain avoidance has been the key. I ski plenty of steep terrain but only if I am fairly sure that it is safe (you never can be 100% sure).
Stay safe. See you out there.

These have all been great posts. With all of the new snow recently, maybe someone will learn from these posts, even ourselves who need the ocassional reminders, especially early in the season.

I suspect some new memorable experiences were created this last weekend. 
Yesterday we came across a party of 4 returning from the East Peak/Bullion Basin area at Crystal that had just been caught in one.  They seemed somewhat shaken by the experience.  Apparently 3 of the 4 were buried, at least 1 completely.  It appeared that bodily they were none worst for the wear but suffered some minor gear loss and breakage.

It's been my experience that early season is perhaps one of the most dangerous times of the year. It's not something that is proven in statistical data on avalnches but it is something I have experienced first hand. Maybe some of what I have experienced factored into what those lucky people at Crystal experienced. Here are some of my observations:
1. It's been my experience that the early season storm cycles in the Cascades can dump heavily - up to 3-ft in 24-hours.
2. This year is not a great example but in previous years the first vigorous storm cycle of the season dumped over essentially bare ground and intially did not bond very well to the ground surface. I've experienced early season slides that have gone right down to the ground on a couple of occasions and I've been caught a couple of times, once not seriously, and once completely buried. Both times I was in the trees in areas which I would normally consider to be very safe and well anchored.
3. On the first outings of the year evaluation skills are rusty. You may miss some things that would otherwise trigger a sense of caution. And as in #2 areas where you are used to going and consider safe
4. There is an attitude prevelent among many BC skiers that there is only minimal potential for avalnches in the early season.
5. Combined with #3 and #4 people want to rip it up on their first outing of the year. #3, #4, #5 combine to make a very dangerous situation in which people become oblivous to the dangers present.

Given my past experience in the early season I now stick to mellow stuff. This year I've just been doing laps on Hyak. I skied 128 days last year and the only time I got caught in a slide was on the first day during the first storm cycle.