What an interesting change in weather

Check this out: AFD NWS Seattle: AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES OVER WA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE WRF/NAM MOS INDICATED RECORD LOW HIGHS TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH THE GFS MOS INDICATING THAT PERHAPS WE COULD TIE THE RECORDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES MOS AND THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS WE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY BREAKING IN SEATTLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WELL...POSSIBLY TO PASS LEVELS ABOVE AROUND 4000 FEET. THE GROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RATHER WARM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW ON PASSES BUT THE HIGHEST PASSES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CERTAINLY EXPECT SOME FLAKES TO FALL.

This Low is described as being 3 standard deviations out of the norm in intensity for this time of year. It appears to be owing to a gigantic wave along the west coast - note that the 8-14 day outlook for Alaska shows very high pressure and much above normal temps at the same time. Google the 6 to 10 or 8-14 day outlook to see this pattern.

So, does anyone want to speculate whether or not Rainier and Baker got enough snow to make the skiing enjoyable?

seems like it usually doesn't take much to get the muir snowfield in shape, but I recall that paradise usually needs to register about an inch of precip to equate to an adequate cover of snow up high... what info there is for paradise telemetry shows only about a 1/4" of precip there yesterday.

There is 2 to 3 inches of snow above 5000' elev. in the Wenatchee Mtns. today. It is beautiful! Horsemen and elk hunters were driving down and had snow lying on the roof of their rigs and trailers. This is about right, there is usually a little snow above the passes around the middle of September. It often melts off and some clear weather comes later before winter kicks in.

Today I drove up to mountain bike my favorite area of single track bridle trails from about 5 to 6000' elev. Two to three inches of snow there, so I drove down and mountain biked from 3900' to about 4800' in another area on a gated road below the snow.

It is great to see the moisture to help inhibit the fires. Until yesterday, it was dusty all the way up.

Randonee. All week I've been wondering if I should cross the Teanaway ridge or drive around it (coming from Wenatchee). I still plan to try and drive over it (4800' w/Jeep Cherokee) Saturday am (Rd 5738?) unless you post otherwise.

Also. We drove over Stevens Pass today (Friday Afternoon) and didn't see any snow except for trace amounts.
Then we pull in to Wenatchee and see (below the clouds which you know are obscuring even more) snow!!!!!!
Hopefully a portent for the season to come!

As far as weather speculation and ski season guesstimates go: I still think back to the eloquent post about the
modulation of the jet stream being the biggest determining factor in PNW snowfall. You have to have precipitation to have snow. <Period. I've posted before that El nino does not necessarily bother me. (Increasing frequency of El Ninos is a different story, Gary.) I've also posted that El Ninos are not necessarily associated with an increase in true Pineapple Express. More or less El Nino seems to park the Low Pressure Systems further south than they should be thus drawing in moisture from more lower latitudes. But moisture it is nonetheless. Then when the upper level lows do drop in they seem to hit lower into Oregon. Which is fine with me cause then Mission Ridge gets nailed by the wrap-around.

So in summation. This is not one of those posts where I just post a photo of a green bug.
(btw I think it was skiphotomatt who posted the eloquent post about the jet stream. He's the stuff!)

Skiffs of snow started at 4500' or lower, but the road was bare, with snow alongside, until pretty high then suddenly above 5000' the road was white. No driving problems. It was just too much to mountain bike in for me, anyway. I had hoped to bike my favorite trails through the forest with a skiff of snow, but footprints did not go to dirt up high- 2-3 inches and some drifts. I went lower and had a ride. I think the fc is for warming, most of that snow will probably go away.

Yea, wait and see, ski what is there. There are so many variables. I had the best 5 weeks of bc pow last season after the too-long dry spell with weird snow. Before last Thanksgiving I got two excellent powder days but then last Christmas I was off work for the entire week and there was no skiing worth having- we snomoed up once and it was horrible, and wet. Wait and see and hope the good stuff is there when you are... and el nino can be pretty good to the Wenatchee Mtns. I remember a year when el nino put good snow on Mission and mediocre snow on Stevens, from the SW wraparound storms. I may ski the Teanaway more this season if el nino is stingy on the crest.

Near Baker lodge, it had snowed a trace down to picture lake Friday night and by Sat Am the trace remained at 4800' with a few inches that didn't melt off by Sunday PM above about 6000'.