Scotsman:
On the way home that night I was feeling rather guilty that my unease with the Silver Basin slope had spoiled my partners day, and that my tendency to be cautious ( and at times I think I can be over-cautious) adn prevented us from getting in some good sking.
Who knows who was right or if there was a right or wrong ,but I find it interesting that two relatively informed people had such different risk assessments of that particular slope at that particular time.
Scotsman, it's actually pretty positive that you guys took the time to discuss what you were sensing about the snowpack. It's also probably accurate to say that on one day you may be feeling (or have picked up on some cue) less confident about conditions/choices, and on another day it might be your partner. But, it is a positive sign in your choice of partners, that they listen and that you discuss what you sense.
None of what we know or think we know about the snowpack is all that cut and dried. At best we can just acknowledge certain factors, snowpack, terrain, weather and determine in rough approximations whether something is more or less likely to slide. But, over time, the key to safety is assigning a wide enough safety margin to compensate for omissions in perception and inaccuracies in judgements .....combined with a bit of luck.
What you had in your snowpack was without doubt a weak layer. You also had a crust that mitigated the hazard - as long as it remained strong enough. But, you also had a warm sun. How much of a slab was necessary to be a concern, how weak the crust needed to be, whether or not their was sufficient stored energy for release...who knows? One thing that appears obvious from observation is that a once-settled wet snow layer topped by a crust can fail at some point if the crust and basal layer are weak enough....
Interesting photo of the accident scene in Stoneman's. I figured from an earlier description that that was the gully that was being discussed. I used to look at that gully a bit back in the 70's but never wanted to ski it because I didn't like the way the fall line tilted to one side. That meant that climbing up it would be dangerous and that, when skiing, if it slid, one would be raked against the rocks.
