hey weather saavy folks: the next few weeks?

Here's a good article on the correlation of El Nino effects with other significant variables. Just Google and download this paper as a pdf.<br><br>Winter Temperature Variability Across Alaska During El Nino Events<br><br>by John Papineau, NWS Anchorage Jan 2005

Jeff Renner is putting up some nice forecasts at:<br><br> www.king5.com/newsletters/ski/ski.html

Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 12:59 a.m.
Finally...Some Snow on the Horizon This Holiday Weekend

It's been a cruel week and a half. After the earliest start to the ski season in years, a huge area of high pressure built directly over the northwest, resulting in dry weather-no fresh snow. But that's about to change.

The computer models I've been studying originally called for a weather system to move in Friday morning, but now are pointing to an earlier arrival-probably late Thursday afternoon or evening. Initially, that doesn't look good because the combination of cold, easterly flow through the passes and the incoming moisture could combine to produce local freezing rain Thursday night. However that should change by Friday morning. Once the front moves through, the snow level will steadily drop-that means fresh snow at the ski areas. The first areas to benefit will be those at higher elevations; Mount Baker and Crystal. The snow level appears likely to drop below 4,500' Friday morning. Stevens and White passes should see a mix of rain and snow change to snow by mid-day or so, with snow returning to Snoqualmie pass during the afternoon. Ultimately the snow level should drop to or slightly below 2,000' by late in the day. Since we're more than 48 hours out, it's a bit premature to get a good sense of how much snow this system is likely to produce, especially since the low generating it will track well to the north. However, 4-8" looks reasonable at Mount Baker, probably 3-6" at Stevens and Crystal and slightly less at Snoqualmie. But remember...this is a PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE! I'll update this Thursday night (that's right, I'm working Thanksgiving!) Let me also mention that based on likely winds aloft, I'd expect the heaviest snowfall Friday to occur on southwest to west-facing slopes.

Backcountry skiers, boarders and snowshoers should be aware that fresh snowfall will increase the avalanche hazard. As always, backcountry travelers should check conditions at the Northwest Avalanche Center; (206) 526-6677 or www.nwac.noaa.gov .

I feel the need to do some field research...see you on the slopes this weekend!

Jeff Renner KING 5 Chief Meteorologist and author of "Mountain Weather" published by Mountaineers Books

Let's not forget the "powers that be" that control our weather. I've been watching the "chemtrails".

here's the 'official' govt. foecast. doesn't look that great for the PNW - warmer than norm, avg. precip.<br><br> www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

btw, here's a noaa site with interactive maps on the left is a pull-down for snow depth, etc. and below that is a directory for layers for xc and alpine ski areas, fun to play with.

www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html?extents_us.x=

From the 9am Seattle forecast discusion:<br>"THE INVERSION LAYER IS ON TURKEY DEATH ROW AND BEING <br>STRAPPED INTO THE OVEN THIS MORNING. "<br><br> iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/wa/discussion.html

This next weather disturbance (earlier expected to head mainly across south-central Oregon and northern California Sunday night and Monday) now appears likely to spread increasing moderate <br>precipitation and strong winds across the area later Monday morning and afternoon...with the moderate to strong upper <br>trough and an associated surface trough should produce moderate <br>to heavy orographic snowfall at progressively lowering freezing <br>levels. <br><br>Yey!<br><br>P.S. I'm in the Stevens Base lodge again, and it's snowing pretty hard.