The topic of global warming: twice is nice.

Skip's plots look startingly like some I saw Phil Mote (UW, Climate Imacts Group among other affiliations) present in a seminar last year or the year before. He did some fairly detailed statistical analysis of past snowpack data, then used a predictive model (I forget the details of his predictive model, but I think it was pretty simple) coupled to a fairly complex hydrologic model (named Vic if I remember correctly). Anyway, a cursory google search didn't turn up a home page, but I found a powerpoint of a version of the talk at here. Scroll down toward the bottom of the page.<br><br>Since it's pretty old work, I'd be surprised if it isn't written into a paper and been submitted to a journal (or even been published by now). You should be able to find the paper online somewhere, if you look hard enough (most papers, once they are submitted can be found somewhere on the web).

Oh yea, models aren't perfect, but they are pretty good and they can teach us a hell of a lot. But you don't need a model to tell you our snowpack is going to take a beating in the future. Our skiing is just above the winter snowline, so a few degrees of warming will essentially kill it. Places like Utah, California, Montana, ect.. with degrees to spare will be OK, and may even gain some snow if precipitation increases. I've had conversations with ski partners about future choices in places to settle down, and we have agreed that long term (30 years) global warming is a serious issue to consider in choosing to stay in the Northwest.<br><br>I'd also like to point out that estimates for future warming are globally averaged. Because of the way the climate system works, it appears the tropics are fairly immune to warming, while the polar regions will get hit harder. Thus, if it warms 2 K globally averaged over the next 75-100 years, (a very conservative estimate) we will probably see more like 3-4 K (6-8 F) here where we live. Warming is also more pronounced during the winter than summer. The prospects are not good if you like skiing at Snoqualmie Pass.

You don't need any complex models. Consider the glacier recession in this area in just the last 50 years. A few thousand years ago this area was completely under glaciers, right? Change is certain, and the recent historical trend (few thousand years) has been toward significantly less snow here. The models of less snowpack in 100 years don't surprise me too much, nor would it surprise me if the models turn our incorrect. I guess you could always move north to follow the retreating snow pack or sell your skis on the new for sale forum.

???<br>But is the rate of change in the last 50 years the same as the average rate since the last ice age ended? This is where the "it's all natural phenomena - we're still just swinging out of the ice age" argument stops making sense to me. And where models that demonstrate how carbon might be causing the observed acceleration in rate (and more importantly, predicting where we're going depending on choices we make) start to seem helpful.<br><br>

... A few thousand years ago this area was completely under glaciers, right? Change is certain, and the recent historical trend (few thousand years) has been toward significantly less snow here. ...

<br><br>Well hold on, that's not quite true. A few thousand years ago (5000-8000 years ago), this area was much warmer and all glaciers in the lower 48 disappeared, except perhaps high on the northern Cascade volcanoes. <br><br>The last Glacial period (Ice Age) ended around 13000 years ago, and the ice sheet in Puget Sound vanished very quickly during the following Interglacial period. The climate warmed to several degrees warmer than it is currently, peaking around 6500 years ago. The climate cooled around 4000 years ago, the start of the Neoglacial period, during which most current glaciers in the lower 48 re-formed. The coldest time since the last Glacial was probably the recent Little Ice Age, roughly 1500-1850, during which glaciers reached their maximum sizes since the last Glacial. So the trend toward less snow and ice is only the past 150-200 years.<br><br>(These numbers are all off the top of my head, but they are approximately correct.) <br><br>I just wanted to quickly clear that issue up, I don't really feel like discussing global warming right now.<br>

For you Global Warming dudes. Here is a great example of how little things have changed over the past 60 years. <br><br> hyak.net/temp/globalwarming.html